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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #102,621
  • Oct 5, 2011 1:32am Oct 5, 2011 1:32am
Quoting Cricketer
Hello all!
I'm new here (as you can see). Well, I have some experience trading forex with mechanical systems. But I am a price action virgin (pun intended?).

So anyway this is my first chart that I want to share. I see there is a pinbar on USD/CAD and the low is touching 2nd october's high. So If I put a sell stop order at the break, wouldn't it be trading in to the traffic (yes I read the thread for sometimes now :-).

So, what do you guys think? Would you take these types of PA?
Welcome Cricketer,
the 2nd of october was a sunday so this tiny bar is called a sunday bar and some people just disregard these bars (me included) so IMHO (as i'm still new here) the usdcad is a good setup i'm keeping an eye on it waiting the price to break the 1.05 level.

Regards
Plan your Trade, Trade your Plan
  • #102,622
  • Oct 5, 2011 2:56am Oct 5, 2011 2:56am
Morning everyone. fascist beat me to it again on the daily PB's. Looking at the chart on AUDCAD again this morning I'm glad I didn't place that pending order last night. It ended up not really being a very good example of a PB.

On my watch list this morning...AUDUSD, USDCAD, AUDCAD, GBPAUD
Of them USDCAD and GBPAUD are looking the best. I'd say that of those 2, USDCAD is the best setup. Here's what I see for the 2 pairs.

GBPAUD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD.PNG Size: 31 KB


USDCAD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.PNG Size: 84 KB
  • #102,623
  • Oct 5, 2011 3:03am Oct 5, 2011 3:03am
Quoting picon1
Morning everyone. fascist beat me to it again on the daily PB's. Looking at the chart on AUDCAD again this morning I'm glad I didn't place that pending order last night. It ended up not really being a very good example of a PB.

On my watch list this morning...AUDUSD, USDCAD, AUDCAD, GBPAUD
Of them USDCAD and GBPAUD are looking the best. I'd say that of those 2, USDCAD is the best setup. Here's what I see for the 2 pairs.
Would only take a short on the break of the 365 EMA..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud-pb- 05 oct11.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #102,624
  • Oct 5, 2011 3:09am Oct 5, 2011 3:09am
Quoting fascist

Would only take a short on the break of the 365 EMA..

Attachment
My first target would be above my 365 ema at 6050. My 365ema is at 5975 on my data. Entry would be on a breach of the PB low at 6129.
  • #102,625
  • Oct 5, 2011 3:12am Oct 5, 2011 3:12am
Quoting picon1
My first target would be above my 365 ema at 6050. My 365ema is at 5975 on my data. Entry would be on a breach of the PB low at 6129.
seems your 365 EMA very different from where my EMA is even though the candlestick OHLC are not far off.
  • #102,626
  • Oct 5, 2011 3:19am Oct 5, 2011 3:19am
Quoting fascist
seems your 365 EMA very different from where my EMA is even though the candlestick OHLC are not far off.
yeah I noticed from looking at your chart image. Aint FX great

That's why I always endorse using the data you have to place your trades and look for setups. Coming on the forums is great for bouncing ideas around, getting feedback, and learning, but when it comes to actually placing trades....use your own data is my motto.
  • #102,627
  • Oct 5, 2011 3:33am Oct 5, 2011 3:33am
I know this might be a little..unorthodox but just as a general guide for those out there taking trades to feel just a little more confident, here is the order book from Oanda. They have a net long position for AUDUSD and a net short position for USDCAD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oandaorderbook.png Size: 60 KB


  • #102,628
  • Oct 5, 2011 3:42am Oct 5, 2011 3:42am
Quoting fascist
I know this might be a little..unorthodox but just as a general guide for those out there taking trades to feel just a little more confident, here is the order book from Oanda. They have a net long position for AUDUSD and a net short position for USDCAD.

Attachment

Retail traders are on the wrong side of the market most of the time. When Usd was raising most of the crowd tried to pick the top hence you see larger usd short exposure. If those pinbars will trigger you will see less people being short dollar becouse of the "cut profits and let losses run" aproach of the crowd.

Look at the EU ratio which makes a 1/3 of total volume in oanda. I bet there will be more shorts if */$ pairs start to raise.
  • #102,629
  • Oct 5, 2011 3:48am Oct 5, 2011 3:48am
Quoting Greenhaze
Retail traders are on the wrong side of the market most of the time. When Usd was raising most of the crowd tried to pick the top hence you see larger usd short exposure. If those pinbars will trigger you will see less people being short dollar becouse of the "cut profits and let losses run" aproach of the crowd.

Look at the EU ratio which makes a 1/3 of total volume in oanda. I bet there will be more shorts if */$ pairs start to raise.
can't say you're wrong..maybe its just a confidence measure. cosmetic at best but doesn't defeat solid analysis.
  • #102,630
  • Oct 5, 2011 3:56am Oct 5, 2011 3:56am
Quoting fascist
can't say you're wrong..maybe its just a confidence measure. cosmetic at best but doesn't defeat solid analysis.
If those guys would have any impact on the market that would be more interesting but the truth is that this is just plankton (floating liqudity for big fishes ) which is losing money most of the time hence their confidence should be analised in more counter-trend manner.... Every major tv station had headlines about market crash yesterday evening and meanwhile there were money to be made on the upside.... think about it.
  • #102,631
  • Oct 5, 2011 4:03am Oct 5, 2011 4:03am
Quoting Greenhaze
If those guys would have any impact on the market that would be more interesting but the truth is that this is just plankton (floating liqudity for big fishes ) which is losing money most of the time hence their confidence should be analised in more counter-trend manner.... Every major tv station had headlines about market crash yesterday evening and meanwhile there were money to be made on the upside.... think about it.
Haha..anyway you taking on the AUDUSD or USDCAD trades?
  • #102,632
  • Oct 5, 2011 4:11am Oct 5, 2011 4:11am
Quoting fascist
Haha..anyway you taking on the AUDUSD or USDCAD trades?
Those trades will have the same outcome probably so its case of being long/short usd. I was long gu @ 1.5390 yesterday and liquidated at 1.5480.
What i have earned yesterday have been reinvested in the AU long today becouse its basically the same USD-weakness bet.

At time when risk apetite/aversion is ruling the market all the moves are strongly correlated. Honestly one can play all forex pairs by looking at the e-mini at some times
  • #102,633
  • Edited 4:14am Oct 5, 2011 4:12am | Edited 4:14am
I'm gonna be taking the USDCAD trade fascist. Just waiting for a break of 05. The low of my PB is 0506, don't fancy selling into a RN.

GBPAUD I'm short from 29. Think this PB on AUDUSD could be the low of a little pullback in the down trend
  • #102,634
  • Oct 5, 2011 4:23am Oct 5, 2011 4:23am
Quoting picon1
I'm gonna be taking the USDCAD trade fascist. Just waiting for a break of 05. The low of my PB is 0506, don't fancy selling into a RN.

GBPAUD I'm short from 29. Think this PB on AUDUSD could be the low of a little pullback in the down trend
Yep..i'll be in the trade too if it breaks those levels.
  • #102,635
  • Oct 5, 2011 4:35am Oct 5, 2011 4:35am
Quoting Greenhaze
Those trades will have the same outcome probably so its case of being long/short usd. I was long gu @ 1.5390 yesterday and liquidated at 1.5480.
What i have earned yesterday have been reinvested in the AU long today becouse its basically the same USD-weakness bet.

At time when risk apetite/aversion is ruling the market all the moves are strongly correlated. Honestly one can play all forex pairs by looking at the e-mini at some times
Yeah, the forex pairs are correlated with the US stock market. But i wonder how a move in the dow has direct and immediate impact on forex pairs. Say a weakened Dow increase risk averseness, USD strengthens.. But immediately, investors pile on to the USD?
  • #102,636
  • Oct 5, 2011 4:37am Oct 5, 2011 4:37am
Quoting fascist
Yeah, the forex pairs are correlated with the US stock market. But i wonder how a move in the dow has direct and immediate impact on forex pairs. Say a weakened Dow increase risk averseness, USD strengthens.. But immediately, investors pile on to the USD?
I know from observations that the EURUSD and SP500 are very closely correlated in terms of movement. Don't ask me why or how, but the moves are far too similar to be coincidence.
  • #102,637
  • Oct 5, 2011 4:48am Oct 5, 2011 4:48am
Quoting fascist
Yeah, the forex pairs are correlated with the US stock market. But i wonder how a move in the dow has direct and immediate impact on forex pairs. Say a weakened Dow increase risk averseness, USD strengthens.. But immediately, investors pile on to the USD?
Fear and greed. People invest cash in assets and escape the investment when fear creeps in.

If all is good, traders buy stock , higher yielding currencies and so on .... and you need ca$h to do that.
When fear enters the market it results in liquidation of the open interest hence a good question is: where are the money parked and for what reason?
  • #102,638
  • Oct 5, 2011 5:19am Oct 5, 2011 5:19am
folks - when oanda has same direction with you... be extra careful.

I wonder how noone noticed the touch at 1.637-1.64 area on g/c; was very nice and with 5 pips drawdown. That area held for 1 year +.

I'm also lookin' at u/c short on daily, but I want to see ~1.048 to jump in, since g/c is free trade already.

an interesting article(ok, says more or less the same, which everyone already knows, but, hey, it's pretty well written) - http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/h...s-dollar/63178 - talking about what the approach one should have when trading, not if dxy is bullish or bearish - that's discussed in 2nd part which I didn't read and frankly I don't really care about what someone thinks about dxy...

anyway, if we're happy -> a > c >... >u. If not, everyone will jump again on a and c, with a/c going down too(but hopefully the dead cat will bounce nicely this time - it's long due, plus need to reinstate the shorts at decent levels).
  • #102,639
  • Oct 5, 2011 5:30am Oct 5, 2011 5:30am
The pairs are starting to move...
  • #102,640
  • Oct 5, 2011 5:57am Oct 5, 2011 5:57am
Quoting fascist
The pairs are starting to move...
Don't chew all your nails...your gonna need some for later on today
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