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AUD/USD

  • #34,161
  • Oct 4, 2011 3:01pm Oct 4, 2011 3:01pm
nice bounce off 9400
  • #34,162
  • Oct 4, 2011 4:21pm Oct 4, 2011 4:21pm
AUD/USD @ .9575

Plenty in last nights trading for the bulls and bears provided you got it the right way round

EU jawboning about bank recapitalisation causes late rally in equities hence AUD move up.

As I have said on numerous occasions the politicians cant be trusted so let the blind traders run with them and use the strength to sell UNLESS something material occurs.

Today would expect a test of .9630 with resistance .9700 capping
on base we have Paul McCartney... err .9500 .9450 .9380

Happy trading..
  • #34,163
  • Oct 4, 2011 4:29pm Oct 4, 2011 4:29pm
I believe 9600 will hold,
Shorting here @ 9585, sl @ 9640 with target @9360

Wishing you prosperous trades today
Expect the unexpected.
  • #34,164
  • Oct 4, 2011 4:45pm Oct 4, 2011 4:45pm
Good luck! A maybe very doable target..I'm concerned right now if 9520 is gona hold with the recent news and bull thrust across the board that Asia has not had a shot at yet. Too early to tell if this is the end of the south bound move, but we are getting close..

Quoting fx-rocket
I believe 9600 will hold,
Shorting here @ 9585, sl @ 9640 with target @9360

Wishing you prosperous trades today
  • #34,165
  • Oct 4, 2011 5:21pm Oct 4, 2011 5:21pm
Quoting fx-rocket
I believe 9600 will hold,
Shorting here @ 9585, sl @ 9640 with target @9360

Wishing you prosperous trades today
Good luck on that...! I had 4 short positions taken between 9663 and 9461, all hit their target -- just barely!!! -- at 9401, while I slept, just before the upturn. I'm going to stay out of the market for a while to see what happens, but I'm rooting for you, because I'm into some commodities that are trending in a similar way, and need another plunge to hit targets... So, good luck and may we both prosper!
Channeling profits from the fractal universe.
  • #34,166
  • Oct 4, 2011 5:38pm Oct 4, 2011 5:38pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Closed 1 lot @ 9460. Chicken, I know, but NY after lunch has been brutal latley. Nice to book some profit. Letting the other 2 lots run w/ stops @ 9420.

Regards,
hey... still nice job!!! cheers!
  • #34,167
  • Edited 5:56pm Oct 4, 2011 5:42pm | Edited 5:56pm
Quoting Wavesurfer
Good luck on that...! I had 4 short positions taken between 9663 and 9461, all hit their target -- just barely!!! -- at 9401, while I slept, just before the upturn. I'm going to stay out of the market for a while to see what happens, but I'm rooting for you, because I'm into some commodities that are trending in a similar way, and need another plunge to hit targets... So, good luck and may we both prosper!
I left 2 sell orders overnight @ 0.9540 and 0.9590 for an average of 0.9565.
ATM, +20 pips average.

Looking how the other pairs notably EURUSD has risen from the grave, and how RISK has gained some backbone overnight, these SHORTS might not hold pips... AUD Retail Sales will add short term direction so watch out
  • #34,168
  • Oct 4, 2011 5:53pm Oct 4, 2011 5:53pm
Just wanted to thank the contributors of this thread of late, as the thread's quality has improved a lot! Some very clever posters - well done!

Could i ask though if posters could post their analysis/reasoning for their predictions, re reversals etc. There has been many examples of correct predictions and for me and others I'm sure we would really appreciated and benefit from the additional analysis/explanation when posting these figures.
Hopefully one day soon my understanding will be good enough to assist others on this forum as well
  • #34,169
  • Oct 4, 2011 5:56pm Oct 4, 2011 5:56pm
Quoting BurgerKing
I left 2 sell orders overnight @ 0.9540 and 0.9590 for an average of 0.9565.
ATM, +20 pips average. Hmmm.. but we have risk event AUD Retail Sales...
Cant see the improvement in the figures, and the retail talkers in the media are still whinging. So I would expect negative value, forecast is 0.3%.. Cant see that happening.
  • #34,170
  • Oct 4, 2011 6:24pm Oct 4, 2011 6:24pm
im out +5pips. not liking how RISK is on the table
  • #34,171
  • Oct 4, 2011 7:39pm Oct 4, 2011 7:39pm
Quoting BurgerKing
im out +5pips. not liking how RISK is on the table
Gotta watch those spikes!! Went short at the last resistance and was moving stop loss as it went down only to have that last news spike blast up and now I'm out for a small profit!!
  • #34,172
  • Oct 4, 2011 7:57pm Oct 4, 2011 7:57pm
AUD/USD @.9500

Retail sales better than expected and it still cant rally.
I suspect many thought the upside was the danger and were caught long.

An old rule which applies to the AUD more than most other currencies...

If the Aussie looks too good a buy it usually isnt...
  • #34,173
  • Oct 4, 2011 8:01pm Oct 4, 2011 8:01pm
Quoting lasty
AUD/USD @.9500

Retail sales better than expected and it still cant rally.
I suspect many thought the upside was the danger and were caught long.

An old rule which applies to the AUD more than most other currencies...

If the Aussie looks too good a buy it usually isnt...
deviation wasnt enough to provide a big movement...

price just hit 50% of last uptrend fib and daily pivot. Now its going up
im going to bed now, but i believe when I wake up on london opening, I will be looking for longs...
I'm indeed a talking panda. How are you?
  • #34,174
  • Oct 4, 2011 8:19pm Oct 4, 2011 8:19pm
can someon suggest me what sgoing on-- good data for aud but bad result-- where is this going-- i did some stupid thing-- i am going to colapse if it will go further down-- i cant afford to loose that kind of money-- i have 175 long contracts at .9571--
making a loss of $14000
Please help
  • #34,175
  • Oct 4, 2011 8:29pm Oct 4, 2011 8:29pm
You should just mail me your money insted sir..It's called 'Risk Off'

This guy can esplain it mo beatter..

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/1...-usd-positive/


Quoting rankinchopra
can someon suggest me what sgoing on-- good data for aud but bad result-- where is this going-- i did some stupid thing-- i am going to colapse if it will go further down-- i cant afford to loose that kind of money-- i have 175 long contracts at .9571--
making a loss of $14000
Please help
  • #34,176
  • Oct 4, 2011 8:36pm Oct 4, 2011 8:36pm
Quoting rankinchopra
can someon suggest me what sgoing on-- good data for aud but bad result-- where is this going-- i did some stupid thing-- i am going to colapse if it will go further down-- i cant afford to loose that kind of money-- i have 175 long contracts at .9571--
making a loss of $14000
Please help
We all trade differently, and our targets and stop-loss levels are different, depending on if we are in the trade for the long run or the short run.
Did you go long because you are in the trade for a long time-frame? Weeks, months?
If you are trading FX on a daily basis you need to look at what the trend is doing on a shorter scale, weekly, daily and hourly. And you will be more safe if you trade in the direction of the trend.

Last but not leasst: use money management when you trade, a good rule is to set your stop-loss level so that you only loose say 3%/-4% of your account balance if the trade goes the wrong way.
Expect the unexpected.
  • #34,177
  • Oct 4, 2011 8:37pm Oct 4, 2011 8:37pm
Quoting BurgerKing
im out +5pips. not liking how RISK is on the table
Hey BK, what does RISK stand for? Something to do with sentiment?


Quoting timster
Just wanted to thank the contributors of this thread of late, as the thread's quality has improved a lot! Some very clever posters - well done!

Could i ask though if posters could post their analysis/reasoning for their predictions, re reversals etc. There has been many examples of correct predictions and for me and others I'm sure we would really appreciated and benefit from the additional analysis/explanation when posting these figures.
Hopefully one day soon my understanding will be good enough to assist others on this forum as well...
Timster! I used Elliot Waves, resistance and fib... when they all converge, that gives me confidence. A basic rule of Elliot Wave analysis is that Wave 3 should be in 1:1.618 ratio to Wave 1, ideally. So, on the hourly chart, I measured where the most recent wave 1 occurred, and where it ended (9980 - 9661), and then I multiplied this gap by 1.618, and started the new count at 9875, which is where Wave 2 ends and Wave 3 begins, in order to project the potential ending point of wave 3.

I was amazed when the fib ratio gave me the 1.401 number, because this was at the bottom of the big trend channel that is obvious when you look at the daily bars. Given that the projection of the fib numbers lined up perfectly with an established trend channel from a larger time frame, I made that my TP, guessing that there would be some kind of a bounce at that point. It happened, and I took profit right almost at the bounce point, because the price action did exactly as predicted.

Everybody has their tools, and these are basically mine. I don't use oscillators or any kind of indicator really, I just look at the bars, S&R and keep an eye out for when things like fib ratios in Elliot Waves, and large timeframe trend channels converge... my one caution being that you have to use trend channels carefully, as only the really obvious ones tend to be reliable, and then at best for a bounce or two because once it's obvious, it's already mature and getting ready to be broken.

Here are a couple of charts. The first shows the setup to the turn within the larger trend channel, then I just made an illustrated one with my reasoning... In summary, the prediction was a combination of 1) trend channel, 2) whole number providing natural support, and 3) the Fibonacci relations that tend of occur within an Elliot Wave count. When so many aspects converge it builds confidence, but I still feel lucky to have hit that one on the head. That said, I was trading small lots so my profits were modest.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Aud_before_the_turn.jpg Size: 302 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Aud_after_the_turn.jpg Size: 264 KB
Channeling profits from the fractal universe.
  • #34,178
  • Oct 4, 2011 8:45pm Oct 4, 2011 8:45pm
Risk (or Risk On) means money is flowing into the market instead of going away. DOW had a sharp recovery implying Risk On sentiment. expect recovery in Asia stock market - at least for the day.

Some currencies such as CAD, AUD, NZD are considered Commodities, RIsk currencies. In cases when commodity prices rise, so will these currencies. When Risk Sentiment is ON, these currencies rises as well. Thus I closed my 2 positions @ BE+5. And then came AUD Retail SAles being very positive. But it didnt push AUD to 0.9600... This does not bode well to AUD...0

I feel like shit right now ... closing at be+5 suck seeing how it went down to 0.9500.

I hate being wrong in closing my 2 positions... ce la vie.
  • #34,179
  • Oct 4, 2011 8:58pm Oct 4, 2011 8:58pm
Will wait to see where the price will go after a change in direction at last hour of NY session ( wonder if it's just a retracement or reversal ? )..looks like it consolidate at TF 15 mnt and will take direction at London open ( already have long @ 0.952 , SL @ 0.947 TP 0.965 )..Good Luck !!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud 15.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #34,180
  • Oct 4, 2011 9:07pm Oct 4, 2011 9:07pm
Where is your stop loss and how much of your account are you risking? Should not ever be more than 2% on any one trade. What was your reason for going long at .9571? There was a lot of rejection over .9580 for the short term. You might get lucky for some immediate term Risk on.

Quoting rankinchopra
can someon suggest me what sgoing on-- good data for aud but bad result-- where is this going-- i did some stupid thing-- i am going to colapse if it will go further down-- i cant afford to loose that kind of money-- i have 175 long contracts at .9571--
making a loss of $14000
Please help
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