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Trading For Those With a 9-5 Job

  • #1,261
  • Sep 26, 2011 7:43pm Sep 26, 2011 7:43pm
Quoting Olu
Took a countertrend trade in the above pair. please not that the true trend is up and the trade might not last long. This trade is just till I find a good spot to get long

Olu
Closed for a countertrend profit. Now I am looking to get with the trend...
Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,262
  • Sep 27, 2011 7:28am Sep 27, 2011 7:28am
Markets are in risk on mode after it appears that the EU powers are starting to think and come out with possible solutions. Imho we are having a sell-able rally at the moment. So lets be on the lookout for reversion back to the true trend which is down.

Re-entered the usdcad short (counter-trend trade)...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,263
  • Sep 27, 2011 5:03pm Sep 27, 2011 5:03pm
Here's the chart we talked about.




good hunting,



golfer
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Click to Enlarge Name: weekly gold.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #1,264
  • Sep 27, 2011 5:17pm Sep 27, 2011 5:17pm
Quoting golferfx
Here's the chart we talked about.

good hunting,
golfer
This is really bad for Gold. It means there will be a dollar resurgence and a stock market collapse. Commodities will collapse as well

Thanks

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,265
  • Sep 28, 2011 5:03pm Sep 28, 2011 5:03pm
Quoting Olu
Markets are in risk on mode after it appears that the EU powers are starting to think and come out with possible solutions. Imho we are having a sell-able rally at the moment. So lets be on the lookout for reversion back to the true trend which is down.

Re-entered the usdcad short (counter-trend trade)...

Olu
Bailed out before the big move up. Nimbleness does come in handy
Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,266
  • Sep 28, 2011 5:13pm Sep 28, 2011 5:13pm
Stock markets down big time
US$ up big time
eur, gbp, aud, nzd all down

Check out the dollar index monthly chart. I think we are at the early stages of dollar greatness.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DollarIndex-Monthly-28092011-2310uk.jpg Size: 46 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,267
  • Oct 1, 2011 9:56am Oct 1, 2011 9:56am
I want to let you into some of the issues I faced in the last month in my trading. First and foremost September was good for me but it have been far better. I am thankful nonetheless.

I hope you can learn from my errors and misconceptions and become a better trader. There is no point just feeding back that I made so many pips and made so much $. It wouldnt help you to become better traders. Rather it might get you reaching for the bottle of 'prozac' or something (laugh!)

The good bits this month:

I traded less than the previous month. For me personally this means my impulses are maturing more. That I chase trades less and use higher TFs more in my trading. it also means my trades lasted longer and each one yielded more.


I was profitable last month. This means I am on a train travelling the opposite direction to the 95% who supposedly lose money in this business. Do not worry if you are not profitable month on month. We will all get there.


Now the bad bits:

Missed trades. This cost me a lot of money (that I didnt make!). And most of them would have turned out excellent. Why did I miss the trades you would ask. I will list the reasons and the possible solutions so that we dont fall into the same pitfall again.

 

  1. Looking for deep retracements. A friend of mine that contributes to this thread says the winning of the trade is in the management. I was looking for a deep retracement sometime and end up losing the trade. A good example is the usdcad breakout trade. I wrote about it, waited for it and when it arrived I missed my retracement entry. Perhaps this another manifestation of greed. People think greed is staying in a trade too long. Hunting for the beeeeeeeeeeeeeest price could be another manifestation too.
  2. Not using limit orders. Sometimes I fool myself that I will be on seat in front of my PC when a breakout happens. This thread is for traders with a 9-5 job. Why in the world should I think the breakout would wait for me to finish work and sit infront of the pc. Go figure.
  3. Reliance on Stochastics. I generally would not enter a trade if the stoch dont agree - even if there is a strong trend. For example on a daily chart I would not short if the stoch (8,3,3) is below 15. I have lost many good trades thinking this way. The ultimate indicator is price itself. Stochastics can get more and more overbought or oversold and the price keep moving on.

So if any of these bad attributes affect you know that it will cost you money and money is what gives us the ability to trade.

Later on I will be discussing what I am looking at this week...

Olu

If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,268
  • Oct 1, 2011 11:10am Oct 1, 2011 11:10am
Find uploaded a weekly chart of the eurgbp. We all know about the fundamentals affecting the euro at the moment. Britain has its own problems too but the focus, at least most of it, is on the euro

This pair is in a triangle and the best way to trade this is to wait for a breakout. The downmove on friday was vicious and portends a downside breakdown but its best to wait for a break below 85. if 85 blows then the triangle breakout points to a target of 500 pips to the downside. Sometimes trading this pair makes you feel you are watching paint dry but you would have been very happy 'watching the eurgbp paint dry' if you were short friday

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,269
  • Oct 1, 2011 5:43pm Oct 1, 2011 5:43pm
Quoting Olu
I want to let you into some of the issues I faced in the last month in my trading. First and foremost September was good for me but it have been far better. I am thankful nonetheless.

I hope you can learn from my errors and misconceptions and become a better trader. There is no point just feeding back that I made so many pips and made so much $. It wouldnt help you to become better traders. Rather it might get you reaching for the bottle of 'prozac' or something (laugh!)

The good bits this month:

[b]I traded less than the previous...



Plan the trades and trade the plan.


  • #1,270
  • Oct 1, 2011 8:01pm Oct 1, 2011 8:01pm
Olu: Nice analysis...
Quoting Olu
I want to let you into some of the issues I faced in the last month in my trading. First and foremost September was good for me but it have been far better. I am thankful nonetheless.

I hope you can learn from my errors and misconceptions and become a better trader. There is no point just feeding back that I made so many pips and made so much $. It wouldnt help you to become better traders. Rather it might get you reaching for the bottle of 'prozac' or something (laugh!)

The good bits this month:

[b]I traded less than the previous...
  • #1,271
  • Oct 2, 2011 4:40pm Oct 2, 2011 4:40pm
I have been tracking this pair for a while looking for a short to new lows. I must have commented about 1 thread page ago. We are right at the 78% retracement of the fall from 1.43xx area. This pair roared to the upside. Right now as we speak (type!) we have a gap down and this might be the start of the downturn

 

  1. Price closed as a doji with a wide range last friday
  2. A range that consumed the whole of the previously candle
  3. We have a uptrend line in place
  4. Stoch is overbought and turning
  5. Tonight we have a gap down - might be closed or not

I am looking for a sell on the break below the trend line and a close below 3952

Olu

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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,272
  • Oct 3, 2011 10:07am Oct 3, 2011 10:07am
Quoting Olu
I have been tracking this pair for a while looking for a short to new lows. I must have commented about 1 thread page ago. We are right at the 78% retracement of the fall from 1.43xx area. This pair roared to the upside. Right now as we speak (type!) we have a gap down and this might be the start of the downturn

[list][*]Price closed as a doji with a wide range last friday[*]A range that consumed the whole of the previously candle[*]We have a uptrend line in place[*]Stoch is overbought and turning[*]Tonight we have a gap down - might...
Sell position entered...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,273
  • Oct 3, 2011 3:38pm Oct 3, 2011 3:38pm
Quoting Olu
Sell position entered...

Olu
price behaved technically and my short was elected. 1.3845 is support

There are more trades with posibilities so will post any I see

Olu
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad-daily-03102011-2125uk.jpg Size: 106 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,274
  • Oct 3, 2011 7:24pm Oct 3, 2011 7:24pm
Find posted a daily chart of the above pair

price is below the 100sma
price is in a downtrend
candle chart pattern signal a reversal
stoch has turned down

do your own d/d

Olu
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,275
  • Oct 4, 2011 9:40am Oct 4, 2011 9:40am
Quoting Olu
price behaved technically and my short was elected. 1.3845 is support

There are more trades with posibilities so will post any I see

Olu
Price roared out back to breakeven. Unprecedented cad weakness. Trade closed

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,276
  • Edited 2:47pm Oct 4, 2011 2:46pm | Edited 2:47pm
Dow is currently at b/e coming from -200.

Took a long in the eurusd (counter trend trade). Short and quick trade as the trend is down...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,277
  • Oct 4, 2011 3:05pm Oct 4, 2011 3:05pm
Quoting Olu
Dow is currently at b/e coming from -200.

Took a long in the eurusd (counter trend trade). Short and quick trade as the trend is down...

Olu
the euro has broken a minor downtrend line to the upside. The dow, as I speak (type!) is closing around 10806 up 150 or so. This is coming from -200 about 2 hours ago!

We might have the makings of a temporary rally.

The euro trade is up 73pips...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,278
  • Edited 3:49pm Oct 4, 2011 3:39pm | Edited 3:49pm
A friend pointed me to this chart. How would price react at the resistance point?

Stochastics on the daily have crossed down and leaning towards a selloff however a market can remain overbought for a long time, put in a minor retracement to unwind the stochastics and then take off to the upside.

I will be going long on a close above the resistance line. The weekly chart (not uploaded) shows price coiling against the resistance area. Stoch is pointing up on the weekly and not overbought. Watch for a breakout topside. It might be via some retracement though...

Let the market tell you where it is going. It is whispering retracement atm but the main trend is after the breakout

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,279
  • Oct 4, 2011 3:41pm Oct 4, 2011 3:41pm
Quoting Olu

The euro trade is up 73pips...

Olu
Close by limit order +100pips
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,280
  • Oct 4, 2011 5:38pm Oct 4, 2011 5:38pm
Find uploaded the above chart for your consideration

As I cais previously weekly price is bumping up against the breakout area. Will it breakout? No one knows. However we have to be ready if it does. Will it retrace? It might. We have to be ready as well.

A breakout to the upside could travel 1000pips i.e the height of the congestion channel. But then we could retrace.

1.6410 is the key...

NB: ****cant upload chart at the moment. Problem with FF******

Olu
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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