AUD/USD

AU is moving to ...

down : 9447

top : 9541 / 9567 / 9600

I'm still short on a long-term position trade with AUDUSD. I went short at 1.1012 with the biggest trade I have ever placed.

This has been open since 21st September and the yield has been stellar.

But where will this pair bottom?

I think value is around 88 cents but I'm not forgetting the 60 cent floor in Oct 2008. If I'm out around 88/90 cents this will have been one of the best trades of my career but if it were to go to 60 cents that would be the trade of a lifetime.

But nobody knows (as always) so I can hope and wait but whatever happens this has been a very, very good position trade!

0.9400 is looking like a HUGE magnet.
But shorting at current level (just 100 pips from target) isnt looking like a good risk-reward-ratio.
hmmm...
damn if I do, damn if I dont.

So much for the Positive data out just now! down down!

Medran good job! i wish i did the same i closed my shorts way too early from 1.10 but have got a few more on the way down..

Getting closer to that .94 BK. looks like it might pay off soon, perhaps after the non event RBA meeting.

As warned earlier today, the chants of alarmist about where do we fall to have already started albeit 5 cents away from the current price is not a big view but its a start http://www.news.com.au/business/aust...-1226157894265

Lets see how many we can pick up..

Now for the heads up...

When good data ie Trade numbers and building approvals are meant to be positive for the currency and it rallies briefly and then suddenly slumps,
it means its only going in one direction as many are looking to bail.

you guys are right. i was trying to against the trend and the market again proved i was wrong. fortunately i only tried a 0.025 long but it is still a mistake i should be able to avoid especially i am 100% realize AU is down trend now. I guess i need to take a week break and think my mistake then back to trade next week.
good luck for all of your guys.

Got to agree with Venn ..sell when it rally up..For me it's only safe to go long if pair can get to previous major support around 0.8 or 0.6 ..But there's always something unexpected that might turn present direction ( euro bailout, positive Jobs data from US,etc) as hundreds factors affect the Forex market every day...& Don't forget the carry trade from aussie..Good Luck !!

A man of your word. I will be with you in that trade shortly

this is actually quite sad.. all around the world these people cant pull it together long enough to do their jobs and do what needs to be done to contain this problem

rate might just stay steady

Rates on hold. No surge in Aus yet.

Just saw a blow off down to .9455 after RBA decision and has rebounded quite strongly considering the weakness...
Equities have remained bouyant after initial sell off

We may possibly get a rally here but .9550 needs to breach for momentum back towards ..9700


Lets just sit back and see how this pans out ..

Remembering .9550 was objective.. it needs some serious bad news to give it momentum towards .9160

Rate Cuts still on the cards... feel we will have sideways for a while. My target is still 91.xx

Now it's struggling. Probably cant make it back to .9500

Ok my thoughts on rate cuts is this..

RBA will go IF Europe goes OR something domestically bad happens here ..

Given that RBA are inflation paranoid and despite their band lowering prediction I would be very surprised to see them release the handbrake.

Also remember a weak currency spurs inflation..

None of the economists have got this movement right so far... Forget about them

Mr.Market starts calling their friends to change the direction. Watch yr short this time ...

Going to continue my sleep ... dreams was halve way only ...

Here is a link to the Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
It will make the next Inflation Data Release later this month very interesting, if Inflation softens then we could see an interest rate cut.
(Good for my morgage payment!)

GP

i think the chinnal line will give us some chance

By now, this pair is a no brainer: just short it till it hurts....

0.9400 is gonna break. Question is what level next?