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  • #1,581
  • Sep 30, 2011 2:38pm Sep 30, 2011 2:38pm
I am not throwing stones here. I am just looking for some clarification. Again, most of us are looking to spend our time testing and experiementing. But, if I was going to teach someone to fly I would tell him what the guages are and how they are used and what the ideal settings are for safety and so they dont crash. I dont say "here's the plane, here's the controls and the guages and I can fly and land it fine every time. Figure out what settings the guages should be on and you will be fine. Gee, why not just tell him the correct settings? Yes, an anology, but the meaning is the same - why not just tellthe people and then let them hone their skills. Why the secrecy?

The point is, that the short amount of time required for just one post for a single pairs settings, would address the majority of the issues. He told us he uses a 1 to 1 reward vs risk: we use that. We know he sets his SL at the opposite side of the CZ: we do that. We know he takes his trade at the close of the second candle outside of the buffer zone: we do that. The only thing he hasnt told was his settings. We get the general 2-4 boxes per week and 30 pips of less box heights and the longer the channel the better. So the entry and exit are pretty cut and dried - it is the settings of the indicator that must be key for one person to have nearly 95% winning percentage and others 1/2 of that. So, why be so secretive with the settings? Why not share for one pair - then everyone can emulate and obtain the same 95%. The entry and exit rules are clear and can be followed mechanically. FH, shows his 1 month GU chart where he addresses every trade based on just the CZ.

I will let this go. I just dont understand why a sharing forum has to be controlled. I had a forum on another forex board. I shared everything. People still worked and we refined as best we could. But all the cards were on the table - some just sat back and got a free ride - but many jumped in and improved things. Maybe FHs 95% could even be imporved with many minds working together.

I am off my soapbox and will disappear into the sunset. I thought I might jump in and assist my son in this struggle which seems unneccessary.

GLTA and thanks again to ForexHard for sharing and his contributions thus far. You too Squalou and others...

Steve

I
Quoting Flamenco143
I am not going to presume answering for Forexhard - but I would personally like to respond to your criticism of his replies.

To paraphrase you claim he lacks giving specific answers to questions re: his win %, how he trades etc etc. You then give a lecture on how 'good' teachers respond to questions and help the student better understand what is being taught. I like you, have advanced degrees and been a trader for 17+ years.

Forex trading as you know is not cut and dried like learning say auto mechanics. There are many things you can be taught...
  • #1,582
  • Sep 30, 2011 2:43pm Sep 30, 2011 2:43pm
Hi FH - Right then... that wasn't the most exciting hour and a half of my life, but I've set up my indicator in exactly the same way as you showed in the screen shot on the 17th and been through all the trades from 31st August until today on the GBPUSD pair.

To recap, the settings are:

24 Bars
Fixed at 30 PIPs

My boxes per week came out almost exactly the same as your's at 3.7. I guess the variance will be all the extra data since the 17th + the small difference in data feed.

I aimed for a 35 PIP profit target which is the same you used to define winners in your post, and a figure you have mentioned more than once in the thread. I placed the stop on the opposite side of the CZ where possible with a maximum of 35 PIPs, also as per your instructions, giving a risk:return of 1:1 for each trade.

I took only the first trade signal of each direction for each CZ. If the first trade failed, I took the first trade signal on the opposite side of the box.

Here are my results (the date is based on the trade signal, not necessarily the date the CZ formed):

31 Aug: +35 PIPs
01 Sep: +35 PIPs
02 Sep: +35 PIPs
05 Sep: +35 PIPs
06 Sep: -35 PIPs
06 Sep: -35 PIPs
06 Sep: +35 PIPs (new CZ formed)
08 Sep: -35 PIPs
08 Sep: +35 PIPs
09 Sep: -35 PIPs
12 Sep: -35 PIPs
12 Sep: -35 PIPs
13 Sep: +35 PIPs
16 Sep: -35 PIPs
20 Sep: -35 PIPs
21 Sep: +35 PIPs
28 Sep: -35 PIPs
28 Sep: +35 PIPs

-------------------------

9 winners = 315 PIPs
9 losers = 315 PIPs

-------------------------
Net Total = 0 PIPs
-------------------------

I'm not sure how an account would have ended up by month-end with a fixed % compound trade, but it's hardly the stellar performance that some people here are pulling out of the method.

I have attached a screen grab from the 6th September which is a good example of trades not being taken. Your data for the 6th records an 82 PIP win followed by another 160 PIP win.

The actual signals on your chart (which you can see if you squint really hard!) show that there was a short signal which resulted in a loss, followed by a long signal which also resulted in a loss. Neither of these were recorded.

You then recorded a second short signal (3rd signal for this CZ) which you show as an 160 PIP win.

There are lots of other examples which I can post if it helps.

So again, my question is: why did you not record/trade the same trades as I would have taken for the month? More specifically: is my method of taking only the first signal of each side of a CZ the same approach you take (or anyone else here that's successfully trading this)?

I appreciate your feedback.





Quoting forexhard
Pixelboy, the difference is in the delivery.

Have you posted any charts? No.

Have I? Yes.

Have you posted any trades, good or bad? No.

Have I? Yes.

Regarding post #1372, have you posted any screen shots of the trades you disagree with me on? No.

So far, all I really have you saying is stuff like "I don't see what you guys see".

But without actual charts, trades, or screen shots it's all just words and there is nothing I can do with just words. I need to see examples. Right now, I don't even know if you are using the...
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  • #1,583
  • Sep 30, 2011 2:46pm Sep 30, 2011 2:46pm
FYI, I went through a similar exercise last week or so and had similar results - about 50% winners and losers.

Quoting pixelboy
Hi FH - Right then... that wasn't the most exciting hour and a half of my life, but I've set up my indicator in exactly the same way as you showed in the screen shot on the 17th and been through all the trades from 31st August until today on the GBPUSD pair.

To recap, the settings are:

24 Bars
Fixed at 30 PIPs

My boxes per week came out almost exactly the same as your's at 3.7. I guess the variance will be all the extra data since the 17th + the small difference in data feed.

I aimed for a 35 PIP profit target which is the same you used...
  • #1,584
  • Sep 30, 2011 2:52pm Sep 30, 2011 2:52pm
Quoting JustSomeone
FYI, I went through a similar exercise last week or so and had similar results - about 50% winners and losers.
Ditto, sadly
Maybe there's some secret sauce we're all not seeing
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #1,585
  • Sep 30, 2011 2:52pm Sep 30, 2011 2:52pm
Here's another example, this time from 9th September. The signal shown was recorded as an 124 PIP win, but it actually retraced almost 50 PIPs making it a loss according to the stop loss rule.
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  • #1,586
  • Sep 30, 2011 2:59pm Sep 30, 2011 2:59pm
JustSomeone,

You say you don't want to be spoon fed, and then you demand exactly that.

You just spelled out very clearly that I have described all of the key points of my system, except one. I have described CZ height, CZ width, Trade Open, Trade Close, R/R, plus much more. But... I have not listed my exact settings down to the pip for the various pairs, and this is what you have a problem with. It's not enough that I have described and detailed 97% of my system, you want the last 3% handed to you as well. And in your last message you accused me of massive secrecy and "smoke and mirrors". Really? You call 97% smoke and mirrors? Really?
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,587
  • Sep 30, 2011 2:59pm Sep 30, 2011 2:59pm
This one is from the 12th September. The data records a loss followed by a 109 PIP win.

However, the chart shows that it should have been recorded as two losses. The first trade was signalled short (you can make out the two red arrows to the right of the '124p' on your chart) which resulted in a loss. The second trade was long, which was correctly recorded as a loss. However I wouldn't have taken the third signal having already had losses on both sides of the CZ.
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  • #1,588
  • Sep 30, 2011 3:23pm Sep 30, 2011 3:23pm
FH: I think the difficulty I am having is that I AM trying really, really hard to follow exactly what you have given us. I have followed this thread since it was about 4 pages long. I'm not lazy. I recorded every detail as I went along. I've got a journal full of tips and notes. I applied those details religiously to the charts I posted tonight and they failed to deliver close to what you and others seem to achieve.

I don't want you to think I'm posting all this stuff to be an arse hole, to ruin the thread, piss you off etc. I have spent hours and days poring over this stuff and posting here because I am utterly frustrated with the fact that I am following every piece of advice and the system comprehensively fails. You can see it failing in the charts I've just posted, and they follow your instructions to the letter!

If I thought the system was crap, I would have moved on long ago, believe me. I don't suffer fools. It's because I want to learn to understand how to trade it that I've stuck around.

So please, shed the tiniest piece of light on this missing 3% jewel. Take a look at one of my charts and tell us why you skipped one of the trades.



Quoting forexhard
JustSomeone,

You say you don't want to be spoon fed, and then you demand exactly that.

You just spelled out very clearly that I have described all of the key points of my system, except one. I have described CZ height, CZ width, Trade Open, Trade Close, R/R, plus much more. But... I have not listed my exact settings down to the pip for the various pairs, and this is what you have a problem with. It's not enough that I have described and detailed 97% of my system, you want the last 3% handed to you as well. And in your last message you...
  • #1,589
  • Sep 30, 2011 5:11pm Sep 30, 2011 5:11pm
See FH, I am not the only one. We have 3 people voicing the same problem. I am sure there any more more quiet lurkers. Yes, we appreciate the 97%, but if the 97% only yields 50% winners and we use a 1 to 1 Risk Reward, the 97% dpoesnt buy us anything now does it.



Quoting pixelboy
FH: I think the difficulty I am having is that I AM trying really, really hard to follow exactly what you have given us. I have followed this thread since it was about 4 pages long. I'm not lazy. I recorded every detail as I went along. I've got a journal full of tips and notes. I applied those details religiously to the charts I posted tonight and they failed to deliver close to what you and others seem to achieve.

I don't want you to think I'm posting all this stuff to be an arse hole, to ruin the thread, piss you off etc. I have spent hours...
  • #1,590
  • Sep 30, 2011 6:11pm Sep 30, 2011 6:11pm
Gentlemen,

Two of you have just stated that this system has only a 50/50 chance of success.

But for this basic claim to be valid you would need to take (for example) the last 30 CZ's and show me that 15 of them were straight 1:1 reversals. Because under the basic rules of this system, every other trade would need to be a 1:1 stop out in order to come back with a straight 50/50 win/loss ratio. The moment you have 2 (or 3, 4, 5...) winning 1:1 breakouts in a row this 50/50 claim falls flat.

Anyone?...
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,591
  • Sep 30, 2011 7:08pm Sep 30, 2011 7:08pm
Flamenco: Thanks for the reply and for providing some clear answers as to how you would trade the break outs.

If I were trading another system, I also wouldn't have taken the trades for exactly the same reason. Those long candles scream, "I'm about to retrace!", right?

And that's all well and good except for these very important points:

1. There are tons of examples of winning breakouts on my charts that have exactly the same long candles, so filtering them out also filters out loads of winners. Ditto the doji - millions of them before a perfect, profitable break out.

2. But much more importantly: one of forexhard's core rules from day one has been: TAKE THE SIGNAL. Don't filter it with a moving average, don't apply a slow stochastic, don't even show me whether it's a bull or bear candle. We don't need to know. Just take the signal and trust the system.

So clearly FH isn't filtering the entries based on candle type. Or at least, isn't *telling us* he's doing that!

Any other experienced traders here have an answer to this?

I would be particularly interested to hear from anyone who is following the strict rules as forexhard has set out (entries, SL, TP etc.) and having success with this on GBPUSD.

I'll continue my backtesting with an earlier month and report back.





Quoting Flamenco143
On your chart posted on 1587 I can tell you why (can't answer for FH or anyone else) why I wouldn't have taken that first bo. That bo candle was a big spike, (if you had included on your chart which pair it was or the time of it would have given me a lot more information to explain further) would have made me very suspicious. Why did it spike like it did? Now usually when you see a candle move that much, so many times (as it did in your example) it will soon reverse and head the opposite direction. Not always of course, but often enough I want to...
  • #1,592
  • Sep 30, 2011 7:08pm Sep 30, 2011 7:08pm
I am having great success with this method and I think it has a lot to do with instinct. I am looking at your chart and seeing trades I wouldn't have entered.

FXH's post 1135- "All I'm looking for is a confirmed momentum/sentiment beyond the buffer line."

In your chart below I don't see that in the first BO below the box or at the second BO above the box. So neither of those instances are signals for trades or entries.

Let's look at the second BO a little closer.

1.An 82 pip spike with half to more than half of the candle retracing
2.The next candle closes back in the box/buffer zone.
3. the next candle shows price moving up towards the direction of the initial BO then retracing and closing back into the box
Already these are enough signs for me to lose interest in this pair and this breakout.

I don't see an entry there because I don't see definitive evidence showing momentum.

Anderson
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  • #1,593
  • Sep 30, 2011 7:29pm Sep 30, 2011 7:29pm
Hi FH - In post #1573 you asked me to go through the data that you posted earlier and give you screen shots of trades that I disagreed with you on so that you could comment and suggest why your results differ.

I summarised the same set of data (post #1582) and posted a set of screen shots. You can clearly see that there is a very big difference from what you posted. I would be grateful if you could address my original question regarding trade selection (post #1564).

I'm afraid I don't understand your logic in the note below regarding the 50/50 claim. Specifically, what do you mean by, "The moment you have 2 (or 3, 4, 5...) winning 1:1 breakouts in a row this 50/50 claim falls flat."? You could have 15 out of 30 winning 1:1 breakouts in a row, but if the next 15 hit the stops it's a 50/50 system for that set of samples.

Also, until you answer my original question about which breakouts you trade, it's impossible for me to tell which trades are winners or losers. If I apply my own methodology (only trade first breakout on each side until it's a winner, then wait for a new CZ), then the results I posted earlier clearly show a 50/50 ratio. Picking other breakouts will produce different results.

There were 18 results in that sample. I'll go back and test the previous 12 if that makes you more comfortable with my data.

Or are you now asking me to go back and test all the breakouts from all the CZs (i.e. not just the first ones on each side, but every signal)?





Quoting forexhard
Gentlemen,

Two of you have just stated that this system has only a 50/50 chance of success.

But for this basic claim to be valid you would need to take (for example) the last 30 CZ's and show me that 15 of them were straight 1:1 reversals. Because under the basic rules of this system, every other trade would need to be a 1:1 stop out in order to come back with a straight 50/50 win/loss ratio. The moment you have 2 (or 3, 4, 5...) winning 1:1 breakouts in a row this 50/50 claim falls flat.

Anyone?...
  • #1,594
  • Edited 7:46pm Sep 30, 2011 7:32pm | Edited 7:46pm
...it's like I'm talking into a hurricane....

Within this thread there are several experienced traders saying this is the every best method of trading breakouts they have ever seen.

Some guys are saying it's a 50/50 break even system at best.

There are other guys saying they don't get it at all, and that being here has been a total waste of their time.

I have my own beliefs, obviously.

Moral of the story: You can't please everyone all the time. And you can't make people see things your way. They either "get it" on their own, or they don't.

Last comment I'm going to make on this: Flamenco and I have been friends for 4 years come December. We know each other in real life. I have been a guest in his house, in fact. This is a man that has been trading for nearly 20 years, since before personal computers even existed. And when I showed him this system 2.5 years ago, he basically told me I was wasting my time -- only his language was much more colorful and intense! LOL And now, 2.5 years later, even he is beginning to enjoy trading my Stairsteps. I would hope that there is a lesson in this story for the rest of you guys who are still sitting on the fence.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,595
  • Sep 30, 2011 7:36pm Sep 30, 2011 7:36pm
Thanks AndersonAlex

So, we have a second successful breakout trader here who is blending in their basic trading knowledge to over-ride the entry signals.

This gets worse - before, I was convinced that it was the stop placement and take profits that were causing big issues for me. Now I'm seeing that the entries are also dubious.

Back to the drawing board!



Quoting AndersonAlex
I am having great success with this method and I think it has a lot to do with instinct. I am looking at your chart and seeing trades I wouldn't have entered.

FXH's post 1135- "All I'm looking for is a confirmed momentum/sentiment beyond the buffer line."

In your chart below I don't see that in the first BO below the box or at the second BO above the box. So neither of those instances are signals for trades or entries.

Let's look at the second BO a little closer.

1.An 82 pip spike with half to more than half of the candle...
  • #1,596
  • Sep 30, 2011 7:45pm Sep 30, 2011 7:45pm
FH: This is getting silly again. I just have that one basic question to be answered. It's not complicated. You selectively pick breakouts - how?

You asked me to come back to you with screen shots of the trades I didn't agree with so you could see exactly what I'm talking about. I spent a couple of hours wading through all that data, putting the results together and posting the screens and still I have not a single word of an answer.

Do you not understand why this is so frustrating?



Quoting forexhard
...it's like I'm talking into a hurricane....
  • #1,597
  • Sep 30, 2011 7:49pm Sep 30, 2011 7:49pm
Interesting discussion ..Just my 2 cents and no offense to everyone here :
- There's no HOLY GRAIL .. so backtesting WILL NOT guarantee anything but a waste of time ( for me at least..).It's still surprised me a lot of people still trying to find the best system with backtesting,etc ..if there's such a system that everybody can follow and even use it with EA (OP & exit 100% by the rules) then have a winning ratio of 60% consistently ,EVERYBODY WILL BE RICH just in short time..but that just FANTASY ..for me at least..
- Every system can give you profit..It's only a matter of how you use it (If additional indi help you filter the OP then just use it ..until maybe we experienced enough to know which breakout we should take & not).
- Last week I got more than 200 pips from eu & cable , this week i only got about 30 pips (using this system )..But I don't really bother whether FH backtest is 50:50 or whatever , what matter is whether i can get profit using it (with my own decision when to take a breakout ).
- If there's a system with only 10% winning ratio then i should say it's the BEST SYSTEM..why ? I just have to OP CONTRARY to what the system say and give myself a 90 % winning ratio..
- I also don't care whether my opinions or others is right or wrong , so i won't waste my time to try to look whether someone is wrong or right..again,the only thing matter is only PROFIT because it's a BUSINESS for me (not for fun or to prove i'm right or wrong )
Finally, I read the book by Jason Alan Jankovsky "Time Compression Trading" ..give me a better understanding how important CZ is..Happy week end for all !!
  • #1,598
  • Sep 30, 2011 7:50pm Sep 30, 2011 7:50pm
That's your last word on it?!

No comments on my charts?

No answer to my one tiny question?

FIVE HOURS WORK tonight wading through data and charts and you haven't the common courtesy to spend 5 minutes commenting on one chart or one trade, despite asking me to post them?



Quoting forexhard
...it's like I'm talking into a hurricane....

Within this thread there are several experienced traders saying this is the every best method of trading breakouts they have ever seen.

Some guys are saying it's a 50/50 break even system at best.

There are other guys saying they don't get it at all, and that being here has been a total waste of their time.

I have my own beliefs, obviously.

Moral of the story: You can't please everyone all the time. And you can't make people see things your way. They either "get it" on their...
  • #1,599
  • Sep 30, 2011 7:51pm Sep 30, 2011 7:51pm
Wow, 5 whole hours! Really?

I spent 9 months and over $5000 having an EA made for this system.

I win.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,600
  • Sep 30, 2011 7:54pm Sep 30, 2011 7:54pm
"Here's another example, this time from 9th September. The signal shown was recorded as an 124 PIP win, but it actually retraced almost 50 PIPs making it a loss according to the stop loss rule."-Pixelboy

On this trade I would have entered on the second time price had a BO out of the box.

Reasons I would NOT have entered a sell on the first BO.
1.The second candle's close after the BO doesn't signal any momentum in favor of the breakout
2. All candle's after don't have any momentum in favor of the Breakout.]

Reason I would have entered a sell on the Second BO.

1.After the second candle's close below the buffer line price is clearly showing momentum in favor of the breakout.


I can't see why this is a loss or what your stop loss rules are that would cause this to become a loss. IF I traded this particular breakout I would have taken profit. No questions asked. Never letting a winner turn into a loser is something I stand by. If price goes 124pips in profit and then retraces 50 pips how is that a loss????

Anderson
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