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VWVB Daily Chart Analysis

  • #461
  • Apr 5, 2006 4:23am Apr 5, 2006 4:23am
Again didn't wait it out for a reversal signal on the eur/jpy my positions so far are - 30 pips and will probably will get stop out. Got to get mentally in shape .Wat the hell is wrong with me ?????
  • #462
  • Apr 5, 2006 5:44am Apr 5, 2006 5:44am
hi all, i am a newbie of VWB, could u attact a screenshot when have signal?

thx in advance

regards
  • #463
  • Apr 5, 2006 7:18am Apr 5, 2006 7:18am
[quote=vinn234]Again didn't wait it out for a reversal signal on the eur/jpy my positions so far are - 30 pips and will probably will get stop out. Got to get mentally in shape .Wat the hell is wrong with me ????? /QUOTE]

Vinn, I am about -50 on this trade right now and have my stop at -100 because I can't watch this during the day and need to sleep at night. This method has paid off with several VWB winning trades and one loss. However, I suspect this trading method has something to do with the new growth of gray hairs on my head :
  • #464
  • Apr 5, 2006 8:02am Apr 5, 2006 8:02am
[quote=MrMajik]
Quoting vinn234
Again didn't wait it out for a reversal signal on the eur/jpy my positions so far are - 30 pips and will probably will get stop out. Got to get mentally in shape .Wat the hell is wrong with me ????? /QUOTE]

Vinn, I am about -50 on this trade right now and have my stop at -100 because I can't watch this during the day and need to sleep at night. This method has paid off with several VWB winning trades and one loss. However, I suspect this trading method has something to do with the new growth of gray hairs on my head :
I hope this pair doesn't decide to reach the 3rd fib level ,But the business of trading has noting to do with hope . That's way I am keeping my draw down to a minimum . got stopped out @144.13 good luck with your position.
  • #465
  • Apr 5, 2006 8:26am Apr 5, 2006 8:26am
Hi

New to the thread and FX Trading. Have read all Vegas docs and most of this tread.
Took a 50 pip loss on the EUR/JPY, will wait for beter signal for new entry.
Anybody looking at the EUR/AUD??
  • #466
  • Apr 5, 2006 10:56am Apr 5, 2006 10:56am
Hi guys...what do u think about short eur/usd.?? it`s at 3erd fib level and i saw the 3 concepts...any comment??
matt
  • #467
  • Apr 5, 2006 2:01pm Apr 5, 2006 2:01pm
Quoting Matiasfx
Hi guys...what do u think about short eur/usd.?? it`s at 3erd fib level and i saw the 3 concepts...any comment??
matt
I'm getting VWB attention signals for eur/usd, eur/jpy and eur/gpb. I'll wait for clear reversal signal with vegas 4h hour confirmation to venture these pairs now.

I'm already short eur/chf at 1.5809 SL 1.5872.

Shan
  • #468
  • Apr 5, 2006 3:01pm Apr 5, 2006 3:01pm
Quoting vishalshan
I'm getting VWB attention signals for eur/usd, eur/jpy and eur/gpb. I'll wait for clear reversal signal with vegas 4h hour confirmation to venture these pairs now.

I'm already short eur/chf at 1.5809 SL 1.5872.

Shan
I agree with you here Shan I am watching EURUSD and EURJPY but need good confirmation first. Can't see anything yet but the averages are slowing up.

Jon
  • #469
  • Apr 5, 2006 3:42pm Apr 5, 2006 3:42pm
Hello all,



It is nice to see other sharing thoughts on the VWB model. Just came across this thread.



I also follow the VWB model, and am also watching the EUR/JPY trade. I see a sell opportunity here, but did not take the trade yet. The current price is the highest level this pair has been in the last year or so. It topped 143.65 in Dec 05, 143.45 in Feb.06, and now has surpassed that level in Apr. In addition to the major top in place, RSI is showing signs of divergence in the daily chart and is fairly close to overbought in the weekly chart, adding to the short-term bearish argument. (I know that the Vegas model does not look at any other indicators, but I include the RSI for a supplemental perspective). However; breaking above to new highs raises some concern that this pair will continue to go higher. Any further thoughts? I am keeping an eye on this for a selling opportunity.



Another pair (not sure if anyone here follows this pair) is the NZD/USD: This is another trade that I like. The pair dropped like a rock in the month of March. I think
that this might have been the biggest monthly range for this pair since 1994.
In addition; the RSI is showing signs of divergence and the weekly RSI is close
to levels not seen since late 2002 when NZD was around .40 cents.

I see a buying opportunity but wondering if there might be further downside,
before it retraces…



I will look further into the other pairs you folks noted above and add any perspective I may have…



If anyone is interested, I would be inclined to share thoughts on trades using the VWB. This can be done on this forum, or we can create a e-mail distribution. Let me if interested….



Thanks



Mike
  • #470
  • Apr 5, 2006 4:01pm Apr 5, 2006 4:01pm
ForexMike-

I was just curious what model you are using on the NZD/USD? I was looking at model 2, 2nd Fib.... I have been trying to watch as many daily charts as possible to spot prime trades. Right now I am watching, EUD/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP & EUR/CAD. I am short EUR/CHF at 1.5810 with my SL already at BE+3. Thanks for any info thay you have on the NZD/USD.

Thanks
Larry
  • #471
  • Apr 5, 2006 6:36pm Apr 5, 2006 6:36pm
Larry,

For the NZD/USD pair I use Model 1 and look for a breach of the second fib level or higher. The pair had a couple of up days..and think it still may have some upside.

Mike
  • #472
  • Apr 5, 2006 6:51pm Apr 5, 2006 6:51pm
I'm not able to upload gif files in the forum..it says partially uploaded..not able to upload my observation tables for couple of days..anyone knows how to sort this?

Shan
  • #473
  • Apr 5, 2006 7:33pm Apr 5, 2006 7:33pm
Does anyone here follow the GBP/CHF Pair? I use WB model # 2 and look for the price to breach the second fib level. I am keeping an eye on this one as it nearing that level to the downside, which may present a buying opportunity.

 This pair has a lot of volatility; however, Fibonacci lines are an excellent way to identify price levels to which the pair will retrace after a big move. I also use a slow stochastic and RSI for a different perspective – both of which are point to oversold levels which may indicate a potential reversal point is in the near future.

 The pair opened this evening down..I think it will drop further and will monitor a reversal for a potential buy trade in the near-term.

From a fundamental perspective policy statements from the Bank of England and changes in interest rates will affect this pair since it is a carry trading pair.

Mike
  • #474
  • Apr 6, 2006 12:36am Apr 6, 2006 12:36am
Quoting vishalshan
I'm not able to upload gif files in the forum..it says partially uploaded..not able to upload my observation tables for couple of days..anyone knows how to sort this?

Shan
I also tried to post a picture yesterday and got the same problem.

Jon
  • #475
  • Apr 6, 2006 7:34am Apr 6, 2006 7:34am
Quoting vinn234
Let me know how you make out . I am still Involved long AUD/USD up about 90pips open another lot fri afternoon @ .7159 + 12 pips on that , looking to raise my stop to B/E on that position. Let me know your status today..
Anyone still in this trade, I've been long since 30/03/06?
  • #476
  • Apr 6, 2006 7:41am Apr 6, 2006 7:41am
I am trying to see exactly why this signal came when it did.
Was it a breach of the 50% rule ? I am having trouble with time frame viz a vi Daily open and range .
If it was the 50% rule then it looks like it did it earlier around 4am.
Should the daily open be gmt?
is this fixed or is recent action the decider?
been wondering about this second point for a while....
Hav'nt plucked up the courage to bother Vegas, can anyone enlghten me?
Swami S
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #477
  • Apr 6, 2006 8:29am Apr 6, 2006 8:29am
Quoting Anpar
Anyone still in this trade, I've been long since 30/03/06?
AUD/USD took a while to get to the tunnel. I was concerned about getting hung up at the tunnel so when it went above the tunnel I closed all three of my positions. When I was confident there is still up side to this trade I opened one position and am enjoying the ride.

While I was waiting for confirmation on direction I will admit at being guilty of scalping some pips from this puppy :
  • #478
  • Apr 6, 2006 8:53am Apr 6, 2006 8:53am
Quoting Swami S
I am trying to see exactly why this signal came when it did.
Was it a breach of the 50% rule ? I am having trouble with time frame viz a vi Daily open and range .
If it was the 50% rule then it looks like it did it earlier around 4am.
Should the daily open be gmt?
is this fixed or is recent action the decider?
been wondering about this second point for a while....
Hav'nt plucked up the courage to bother Vegas, can anyone enlghten me?
Swami S
From what I remember Vegas said the daily times were taken from the Chicago close of trade time, which I think he said was around 5 o'clock chicago time which would be 11pm uk time I think.

Jon
  • #479
  • Apr 6, 2006 8:59am Apr 6, 2006 8:59am
Just opened 2 short positions on the EURUSD and GBPUSD. The EURUSD is now starting to give a Vegas 4 hour signal with the price at the extreme fib level a double top on the daily chart and is making an outside day bar on the daily to, it is also at a Fib extension level of 100 on the 4 hour.
The GBPUSD gave a Vegas 4 hr sell signal a few hours ago which turned out to be a false signal but has just re signalled, it is in line with the weekly trend and has formed a triple top.
Will have to see how these go.

Jon.
  • #480
  • Edited 9:49am Apr 6, 2006 9:47am | Edited 9:49am
Quoting ForexMike
Does anyone here follow the GBP/CHF Pair? I use WB model # 2 and look for the price to breach the second fib level. I am keeping an eye on this one as it nearing that level to the downside, which may present a buying opportunity.

 This pair has a lot of volatility; however, Fibonacci lines are an excellent way to identify price levels to which the pair will retrace after a big move. I also use a slow stochastic and RSI for a different perspective – both of which are point to oversold levels which may indicate a potential reversal point is in the near future.

 The pair opened this evening down..I think it will drop further and will monitor a reversal for a potential buy trade in the near-term.

From a fundamental perspective policy statements from the Bank of England and changes in interest rates will affect this pair since it is a carry trading pair.

Mike
Yes I do, if you look at dailies this pair is too good to deny with all those nice swings. And I took a long from 233 fib level, already booked 100 pips, and I leave the other positions for more with stops @ BE.

I wish I could trade all possible gbp crosses... love the pound
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