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Phantom 6 System

  • #1,481
  • Sep 27, 2011 9:19am Sep 27, 2011 9:19am
that's why i tend to manually reset on daily basis (upon my reading of the price).

every 8 hours seems too frequent.

Quoting morepipspls
Hi all,

I was thinking about your point of view and maybe to reset our basket every x hours it is not a good idea. I wonder if the most important it is to track all your pairs from the beginning and close our losers "soon" (Iīm thinking which is the best moment to cut losers and now, beyond 1 day volatility could be a good start).

Thanks
  • #1,482
  • Sep 27, 2011 9:35am Sep 27, 2011 9:35am
hi,

i have the version 5.1.1 at demo.
if you look at the trades, you can see that it was stuck within the eu crash. positive -> didn`t blow the account. But negative -> the profit was only ~ 9€ with over 50 open trades > 0.5 lots. so it maybe needs better settings or whatever.

link: http://www.myfxbook.com/de/members/s...phantom/166889

find attached, the set-file i use (rename in *.set if you want to use it)

Cheers
Attached File(s)
File Type: txt phantom_demo_setting.txt   < 1 KB | 395 downloads
  • #1,483
  • Sep 27, 2011 12:32pm Sep 27, 2011 12:32pm
Quoting charvo
that's why i tend to manually reset on daily basis (upon my reading of the price).

every 8 hours seems too frequent.
Ok, thatīs has sense if you donīt have any trades from 1 day ago, but why donīt we want to track all our trades from the beginning?. Imagine that you have a large number of EURJPY trades, market changes its way and now EURCHF rules, "Biggest Winner symbol" is EURCHF and "Biggest Loser Symbol" is EURJPY. You start to cut your EURJPY trades and add EURCHF trades, you handle any situation possible coming from future. If you donīt cut losers and add winners your basket could get into a big DD and a big movement is needed in order to get your PP% because your Basket price is trapped in the middle.

Maybe Iīm wrong but ACHAB Phantom six 1x test touched several times Margin call and his broker started to close biggest losers and his account survived and got new profits, and/or ACHAB cuts biggest losers manually.

Here is my demo....
http://www.myfxbook.com/es/members/p...-025-pp/159490

If this PHANTOM 1x reach my PP goal (2%) maybe Iīm right , or maybe not. Anyway, with these systems Profit Factor is always too short in long term. It is almost a "set and forget" EA, in the other hand you are going to have a lot of sleepless nights :-( with a high MMTU. (High DD and low margin level/Margin call even).

X factor could help you in order to avoid Overtrading/Margin call issue and it shows you the winning side. If markets changes its way, cut losers is the only solution. Please take a look to Frazerd tests in this thread and I maybe you change your mind like me. (But I repeat that maybe Iīm wrong)

I acknowledge this is the most interesting idea for AUTOMATIC TRADING that Iīve never seen FOR FREE. It is only my opinion.
  • #1,484
  • Sep 27, 2011 1:21pm Sep 27, 2011 1:21pm
sorry for misunderstanding that i caused. i didn't mean anything that you showed is problematic.

in fact, i agree cut-losers is a must function.

as to reset, the length of the interval is important, should be determined by the trader----from my own experiences. it might be 2 hours, or 20 days, all depending on how market runs. you may try it a few weeks, and you might see its use.

as to X-factor, it is logic in the beginning. however, it, seems to me, has not solved the problem of "forever trapped in DD". check Achab's demo, he had baskets more than 2 months long, not one basket, quite a few. can you bear with that in LIVE? if you can, that suits you. but i've been there, and i'd not go there again.

in Caillou's thread, someone also showed an image why X-factor not working in long term. you will always meet this situation, see below my text if u can understand.
edited: txt won't work, but imagine a series of zzzzzz of the market movement.

anyway, if market reverse after each higher high/lower low and to make a new lower low/higher high, you will be trapped in DD. cut-losers may help this case, but you still suffer heavy loss.

this method takes time (1 yr for me now) to think it over. that's why it is important for us to keep exchanging experiences and thoughts

bring it on

Quoting morepipspls
Ok, thatīs has sense if you donīt have any trades from 1 day ago, but why donīt we want to track all our trades from the beginning?. Imagine that you have a large number of EURJPY trades, market changes its way and now EURCHF rules, "Biggest Winner symbol" is EURCHF and "Biggest Loser Symbol" is EURJPY. You start to cut your EURJPY trades and add EURCHF trades, you handle any situation possible coming from future. If you donīt cut losers and add winners your basket could get into a big DD and a big movement is needed in order to get your PP%...
  • #1,485
  • Sep 28, 2011 2:46pm Sep 28, 2011 2:46pm
Iīm happy that we agree in one thing Charvo .

What did you mean with: "txt won't work, but imagine a series of zzzzzz of the market movement. [/color]"

If you are talking about Phantom 6 2a, yes, I agree with you that "X" factor does not works. Reason: this system is not very flexible, I donīt know which is advantage of trading only if one o more pairs are better than others 14. Maybe it works but it has no sense with "X" factor. In the other hand with Phantom 1x our 6 pairs are tracking and traded without any restriction, so in this system "X" factor has many advantages and it is still flexible.

Using 1x you are all the time adding and closing trades doing your basket ready to catch any big movement to any direction. This is my thinking, but I realize that you are fully right when you say that it is a very very slow system. Anyway, we could see what will happen with my demo and we will know more about this system.

It is very important to tell that this system canīt work with appropriate settings. First of all, if your balance is lower than 10,000$ you need to trade with a micro account (IBFX, GO MARKETS...., 10,000 units currency base). Higher that 10,000$ we could use a standard account (100,000 units currency base). Do you agree in this second point??

About others settings, I always like to think in pips, so I translate my PP% to pips, and now I start closing trades when my basket reach Average Daily volatility of our 6 pairs. MMTU: Iīm trying 0,25 in my demo, in my opinion is high but I would like to know if it could get a margin call.

If in 1 year I could get 3 times my investment, maybe It is not a bad idea to start with an small balance in the future if this system works (500-1,000$).

Letīs see what happen.






Quoting charvo
sorry for misunderstanding that i caused. i didn't mean anything that you showed is problematic.

in fact, i agree cut-losers is a must function.

as to reset, the length of the interval is important, should be determined by the trader----from my own experiences. it might be 2 hours, or 20 days, all depending on how market runs. you may try it a few weeks, and you might see its use.

as to X-factor, it is logic in the beginning. however, it, seems to me, has not solved the problem of "forever trapped in DD". check Achab's demo, he had...
  • #1,486
  • Oct 3, 2011 3:34am Oct 3, 2011 3:34am
Hello to everyone,

I would like to read Bob's point of view, on this. Bob (MetaCoder) seems to be disappeared: does someone know where he is?

I wish you all a profitable week.

May the pips be with you.
/achab
  • #1,487
  • Oct 7, 2011 6:03pm Oct 7, 2011 6:03pm
Hi all

I started running Phantom_AddSix_02a live this week. A volatile yet profitable week.
I'm using MMTU 0.8 (on a €-based account) and PP 0.15 - which in turn means that the profit target will be met with a approximate move of 25 pips for the whole basket. The EA has closed 6 baskets this week with a average basket size of 6 positions.
If the entire basket is only to meet 25 positive pips for a basket closure, then I'm in risk of ending up with a loosing basket in a fast moving market if it takes close to a minute to close all the positions.

If anyone is capable of coding a mod to AddSix_02a so a new profit target is calculated with the addition of each new position, it would be hugely appreciated.

With my settings as an example I picture a EachTradeAddsToPP (true/false) and AdditionToPP (double) as a external parameters. So the PP is continuously adjusted as a new position is added to the basket. With a PP of 0.15 and AdditionToPP of 0.02, a basket with 10 positions will have a new adjusted PP of 0.35 (approx. 57 positive pips for the entire basket).
I see two advantages by this:
A lesser risk of closing a basket with a high number of positions as an overall loosing basket in a volatile market.
And the profitability will continuously benefit of the momentum of the market forces no matter how many positions there is in the basket.

Comments anyone?
  • #1,488
  • Oct 9, 2011 1:54pm Oct 9, 2011 1:54pm
Quoting T.Trade
Hi all

I started running Phantom_AddSix_02a live this week. A volatile yet profitable week.
I'm using MMTU 0.8 (on a €-based account) and PP 0.15 - which in turn means that the profit target will be met with a approximate move of 25 pips for the whole basket. The EA has closed 6 baskets this week with a average basket size of 6 positions.
If the entire basket is only to meet 25 positive pips for a basket closure, then I'm in risk of ending up with a loosing basket in a fast moving market if it takes close to a minute to close all the positions.

If...
Inconvenient: Almost all the time, Phantoms EA are "losers", if you do that, you make harder next recovery.
  • #1,489
  • Edited Oct 10, 2011 12:31pm Oct 9, 2011 5:02pm | Edited Oct 10, 2011 12:31pm
Quoting morepipspls
Inconvenient: Almost all the time, Phantoms EA are "losers", if you do that, you make harder next recovery.
Thanks for Your input.
My goal is not to multiply the PP with the number of trades, but just to minimize the risk of a profit sliding into a loss when the basket is closing 10+ positions.
Increasing the PP to a modest degree with the addition of each trade could account for that.
I have only been operating with a very low PP to ensure frequent basket closures, and in general the basket size has averaged 3 positions. But at least once every week the EA ends up with a basket of more than 15 or 20 trades. I've experienced, that when a basket in drawdawn goes into profit the move can be sudden and the equity quite volatile, and the correction can be quite forceful.
This is when I thought that it wouldn't hurt that the profit target was gradually increased to account for the volatility when this move occurs.

I guess another road to travel is to increase the PP in the first place, and accept a less frequent basket closure. I just haven't any experience with a higher PP with this EA.

Cheers
  • #1,490
  • Oct 10, 2011 2:28am Oct 10, 2011 2:28am
Quoting T.Trade
Thanks for Your input.
My goal is not to multiply the PP with the number of trades, but just to minimize the risk of a profit sliding into a loss when the basket is closing 10+ positions.
Increasing the PP to a modest degree with the addition of each trade could account for that.
I have only been operating with a very low PP to ensure frequent basket closures, and in general the basket size has averaged 3 positions. But at least once every week the EA ends up with a basket of more than 15 or 20 trades. I've experienced, that when a basket in drawdawn...
I have a short experience with high values of PP, and I changed my mind only for one reason: High swap cost of keeping a basket a long time. Your idea looks good although Iīm not sure whether it is going to increase so much its performance. Some time ago, I tried a trailing stop mod and my performance with these EAs was worse even.

Cheers
  • #1,491
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:38am Oct 18, 2011 10:38am
Hi all ,

You could take a look to my demo Phantom 1x with Pipstep/ cut losers option and its performance is good:

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/pulg...-025-pp/159490

I have another demo with Phantom addsix 2a with cut losers option and I realize that the beginning of a basket trade is better with 2a than 1x. My idea is to make a hybrid system: it starts our first trade/s with 2a filter ( it must be the best over 14 pairs) and if it doesnīt reach our goal after the first trade/s, Phantom 1x would add new trades due it balances very well our basket trades, DD is lower with 1x.

Anyone here with programing skills is interested in doing this new version?

Thanks in advance
  • #1,492
  • Oct 27, 2011 2:55pm Oct 27, 2011 2:55pm
a coder can change phantom EA and set to use Hanover to choose what cross buy or sell ?

i think can be really interesting see how will perform
  • #1,493
  • Nov 29, 2011 4:32am Nov 29, 2011 4:32am
I have changed the settings for live account:
New settings:

I use: Phantom_AddSix_02a
settings:MMTU 0.3
Lots 0.01
PP 0.25
-------
  • #1,494
  • Nov 29, 2011 12:16pm Nov 29, 2011 12:16pm
The last 3 weeks I've tested the same EA on a 10,000$ account (smallest lotsize 0.01) and a setting of PP 0.125 and MMTU 0.5.
As expected the profits accumulated approximately 50% slower, but the floating DD has been only 2.18%.

I'm considering moving addsix_02a to a live account using PP 0.125 and MMTU 0.5 (which equals an approximate profittarget of 25 pips).

Has anyone had long term experiences with this version and those settings?

------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think the settings are good, I am trying on life account:
lotsize 0.01 and a setting of PP 0.25 and MMTU 0.3
  • #1,495
  • Nov 30, 2011 9:41pm Nov 30, 2011 9:41pm
Hi fx7779,

I've backtested many versions of this EA and want to point out that all of them will sooner or later hit a 'basket of death'.
After heaps of backtesting I found one variation that was able to survive three years of test, but that one was considerably different from the original strategy and only gave you 50% of annual profit with up to 40% DDs. Even that optimized strategy cannot be trusted since no one can guarantee its future performance.

Overall, it is better to forget about phantom EAs.


Thanks,
McS

Quoting fx7779
The last 3 weeks I've tested the same EA on a 10,000$ account (smallest lotsize 0.01) and a setting of PP 0.125 and MMTU 0.5.
As expected the profits accumulated approximately 50% slower, but the floating DD has been only 2.18%.

I'm considering moving addsix_02a to a live account using PP 0.125 and MMTU 0.5 (which equals an approximate profittarget of 25 pips).

Has anyone had long term experiences with this version and those settings?

------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think the settings are good, I am...
  • #1,496
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:43am Dec 1, 2011 4:43am
Quoting mcs
Hi fx7779,

I've backtested many versions of this EA and want to point out that all of them will sooner or later hit a 'basket of death'.
After heaps of backtesting I found one variation that was able to survive three years of test, but that one was considerably different from the original strategy and only gave you 50% of annual profit with up to 40% DDs. Even that optimized strategy cannot be trusted since no one can guarantee its future performance.

Overall, it is better to forget about phantom EAs.


Thanks,
McS
Hi Mcs,

Could you tell us which ones have you tested? Which Phantom EA is the survivor one during 3 years?. How did you backtested these EAs?

Thanks
  • #1,497
  • Dec 1, 2011 9:53am Dec 1, 2011 9:53am
Achab's demo, after 1 yr, finally collapsed completely.

unfortunately......

i'm thinking that at the end of day, people decision (Up or Down?) is a must.

that is, this has to be a semi-auto EA, never a full-auto one.
  • #1,498
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:02pm Dec 1, 2011 5:02pm
I took my version of Phantom that was posted here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...90#post4566290
and re-coded it for JForex (Dukascopy) and did backtests on tick history for last three or four years. It got busted pretty quickly, so I started to experiment with different mods and MM and settings and filters... Eventually I tested heaps of different versions (all or almost all posted in this thread and many more of my own mods).
Even though there is a version which works fine up till now (this is my own one, considerably different from anything posted here), it will eventually hit a wall at some time in the future. By 'hit a wall' I mean either of two: 1) margin call because of a huge DD; 2) 'never ending' DD basket, when the basket is in 40-80% DD and stays like this for at least 6 months till the end of the backtest. The latter is more common if you use very good MM and are very smart at cutting loosers. You can cut whole baskets, of course, and I tested this option - it will burn your deposit in the long run. I tested all approaches I could imagine.
This strategy 'as is' simply has no edge. It is basically 'buy-and-hold' type of strategy. The difference is that it is not just one currency it buys, it builds up a basket and then waits till it reaches some profit target. But the word 'basket' doesn't somehow magically makes it profitable. Without understanding of what kind of basket it is, how this basket behaves, why we are using this basket and not the other one and many other things, this strategy is doomed. Generally it is OK when the basket is fluctuating within some not-too-wide price channel, but the basket tends to trend. It is easy to see if you write a small indicator to display synthetic 'price' of the basket.

So let me put it simple: such buy-and-pray strategies do not survive in the long run no matter how hard you try to tweak them.

If you are keen on basket trading, it is better to look at this thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=262827 and start thinking of your own strategy which will account for basket behavior.


Thanks,
McS

Quoting morepipspls
Hi Mcs,

Could you tell us which ones have you tested? Which Phantom EA is the survivor one during 3 years?. How did you backtested these EAs?

Thanks
  • #1,499
  • Dec 1, 2011 6:56pm Dec 1, 2011 6:56pm
Mcs,

Thanks for the update. I would agree with most of your thoughts. I never had a stand alone 100% mechanical version ever last more than 3-4 months. When conditions are right the profits are fast and furious, but unfortunatly we know the markets never stay with ideal conditions.

I too have tested many of my own mods. I do think the ea has some merit but not as originaly intended or used as complete auto system as Charvo mentioned.

I have designed my own basket system based loosely on the phantom idea. I even designed one of the EA's to take trades as I want them but trade management is 100% me. So far Im profitable and drawdown is very acceptable. Im only around 4 months in so too early to tell how it will go in the longer term.

I do know using a rigid set and number of pairs always traded in same direction and reseting phantoms at a timed interval just will not work long term. As you said its just " buy and pray". Markets and pairs are ever changing so your approach to contructing baskets has to be constantly adapted to that.
  • #1,500
  • Dec 5, 2011 2:34am Dec 5, 2011 2:34am
Quoting charvo
Achab's demo, after 1 yr, finally collapsed completely.

unfortunately......

i'm thinking that at the end of day, people decision (Up or Down?) is a must.

that is, this has to be a semi-auto EA, never a full-auto one.
Hi Charvo,

and good morning. If you mean about this test (http://www.mt4i.com/users/achab-Phantom6_01x/stats) I can't say it has been a negative test.

In my personal opinion if the test is able to double the account it is a winner. If I had it in real, for sure I had withdrawal the capital after it doubled, or before.

Let me make an example: I trade because I want to earn $1,000 per month. In this case any month I would use to withdrawal $1000 and in the test above here I'd earn a lot of money, before it collapsed.

Don't you agree with it?

I wish you a nice day.
/achab
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