Well, quite the turnaround after London.
In spite of my levity regarding the AUD last night at the bottom (which was just a 5-a-pip bet on buying a 95-handled near-year low on AUD in a final blow off), I was pretty sure the EUR slide was over; retail had to be near a record short concentration, given that crap in the afternoon, and the way it had moved down. Also why I threw in the towel on a long-term EUR position and put swing/excursion following automation back up. And it turned out to be a great PA day for it: its enemy is periods of 10 pip range and not same color-follows-color bar patterns.
The biggest risk issue of yesterday was the almost-ignored warning shot fired by S&P concerning EuroCore ratings if they commit too much to the bailouts. Not that they all will ride in, downgrade France, and squirrel the deal on that action; they're too hip to the consequences to do that, and Fitch wouldn't play along in any case.
The risk is that it will broaden understanding that there is only so much solvent credit in the world. If you take some out of one bucket and dump it into another, the level in the first bucket goes down, and it might not magically refill itself.
That, and the little mention that the IMF may be feeling a little strapped themselves. And IMF funding is a very political issue, everywhere.
Haven't read the news/rumors yet, but overall, this ain't out of the woods by a long shot, whatever they might be saying today. Incrementally, what a lot of observers pointed out in '08-09 is continuing: the problems' absolute size, and their growth rate, are beginning to exceed CB ability to control it all.
By the way, it's interesting that Titanic was designed so that the number of compartments breached in the berg collision were not enough to exceed the design buoyancy. The problem was they were all in a row, and once the bow went under, it fell below a critical buoyancy threshold.
In spite of my levity regarding the AUD last night at the bottom (which was just a 5-a-pip bet on buying a 95-handled near-year low on AUD in a final blow off), I was pretty sure the EUR slide was over; retail had to be near a record short concentration, given that crap in the afternoon, and the way it had moved down. Also why I threw in the towel on a long-term EUR position and put swing/excursion following automation back up. And it turned out to be a great PA day for it: its enemy is periods of 10 pip range and not same color-follows-color bar patterns.
The biggest risk issue of yesterday was the almost-ignored warning shot fired by S&P concerning EuroCore ratings if they commit too much to the bailouts. Not that they all will ride in, downgrade France, and squirrel the deal on that action; they're too hip to the consequences to do that, and Fitch wouldn't play along in any case.
The risk is that it will broaden understanding that there is only so much solvent credit in the world. If you take some out of one bucket and dump it into another, the level in the first bucket goes down, and it might not magically refill itself.
That, and the little mention that the IMF may be feeling a little strapped themselves. And IMF funding is a very political issue, everywhere.
Haven't read the news/rumors yet, but overall, this ain't out of the woods by a long shot, whatever they might be saying today. Incrementally, what a lot of observers pointed out in '08-09 is continuing: the problems' absolute size, and their growth rate, are beginning to exceed CB ability to control it all.
By the way, it's interesting that Titanic was designed so that the number of compartments breached in the berg collision were not enough to exceed the design buoyancy. The problem was they were all in a row, and once the bow went under, it fell below a critical buoyancy threshold.
