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The Really Useless Thread

  • #17,721
  • Sep 26, 2011 12:31am Sep 26, 2011 12:31am
Quoting kenfen69
Silver sub $28 now. Gold right around $1605...nu sub $1600 yet. YET.
<$27.50 and <$1600 taken out now.

Hemorrhaging again. Getting faster and faster.
  • #17,722
  • Sep 26, 2011 12:31am Sep 26, 2011 12:31am
Quoting kenfen69
Was just reading a piece saying that historically, copper falls about 40% during an American recession....peak to trough.

Silver sub $28 now. Gold right around $1605...nu sub $1600 yet. YET.
Add in an unwind of the whole Chinese copper-collateralized lending bubble, and that increases the probability of 2.75 for sure.

To the extent the gold fall is really liquidation of winners, pretty soon here the "winner" level will be reached, I'd think. I don't know when gold crossed what price, but these levels are starting to go back in time pretty quickly, no?
  • #17,723
  • Sep 26, 2011 12:38am Sep 26, 2011 12:38am
Quoting OldQuant
To the extent the gold fall is really liquidation of winners, pretty soon here the "winner" level will be reached, I'd think. I don't know when gold crossed what price, but these levels are starting to go back in time pretty quickly, no?
Here's a weekly view. Still has really only just about corrected that final parabolic leg of the journey north.

I'm watching $1580ish. If that goes, I'm sure strikes will be on for $1500. Almost seems inevitable at this point.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1H_AU.PNG Size: 62 KB
  • #17,724
  • Sep 26, 2011 12:42am Sep 26, 2011 12:42am
Quoting kenfen69
Here's a weekly view. Still has really only just about corrected that final parabolic leg of the journey north.

I'm watching $1580ish. If that goes, I'm sure strikes will be on for $1500. Almost seems inevitable at this point.

Attachment
And I'm guessing most of the hedgie gold was probably taken on in the 1400's; that's just a guess. Given how sharp many of those guys are, though, could easily be the 1500's.
  • #17,725
  • Sep 26, 2011 12:44am Sep 26, 2011 12:44am
Quoting OldQuant
And I'm guessing most of the hedgie gold was probably taken on in the 1400's; that's just a guess. Given how sharp many of those guys are, though, could easily be the 1500's.
do you remember the level when India start buying ? was 1600 or lower? If I remember was around 160X, when the slope on daily chart got different angle/
  • #17,726
  • Sep 26, 2011 12:47am Sep 26, 2011 12:47am
Quoting OldQuant
And I'm guessing most of the hedgie gold was probably taken on in the 1400's; that's just a guess. Given how sharp many of those guys are, though, could easily be the 1500's.
I think you're probably right there. Should be some sort of terra firma relatively near by. I would assume it may be quite obvious when it hits. I'm half expecting a CB or two to lead the way when it has officially become "cheap." We'll see.
  • #17,727
  • Sep 26, 2011 12:48am Sep 26, 2011 12:48am
Quoting Piters
YUP.. it is a reversal LEVEL in my books.. [next 3 days] from 3300-3380..

if month close below.. well Good luck..

Which is exactly why I said I don't think much of EUR as a position candidate at these levels. If I'd been smart enough to have taken 36 when it was there, or held what I had initially, that would be different.

Copper sub 3.20 now. Well better than half a margin already today. Watch: tomorrow night the margin goes up, and then the metal bugs blame the falling prices on the margin increase.
  • #17,728
  • Sep 26, 2011 12:53am Sep 26, 2011 12:53am
Daily. 1600 and change was the slope changer, Piters.

Also...that gap-type hole on the daily/weekly? Uh...filled.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1H_AU.PNG Size: 63 KB


Gold right on the above aqua colored trendline now.

Silver sub $27. Nearly a dollar a minute now...good time keeper.
  • #17,729
  • Sep 26, 2011 12:55am Sep 26, 2011 12:55am
Quoting kenfen69
Daily. 1600 and change was the slope changer, Piters.

Also...that gap-type hole on the daily/weekly? Uh...filled.

Attachment

Gold right on the above aqua colored trendline now.

Silver sub $27. Nearly a dollar a minute now...good time keeper.
80 bucks today.. not bad for a gold.. you know what happens next ??
  • #17,730
  • Sep 26, 2011 12:58am Sep 26, 2011 12:58am
Quoting Piters
you know what happens next ??
No!

I know what I'm hoping happens next, but hope is a dangerous thing.

Do you know what happens next?
  • #17,731
  • Sep 26, 2011 1:01am Sep 26, 2011 1:01am
It's counter to my education, training, mentoring, profession, and approach, but then I look at the chart, and watch this program mindlessly going about its business, and notice that if it had been told to scalp 6 off each of its simple signals and then wait for the next one, it would be pushing 40 for the day so far.

Somebody pointed out what 40 pips a day average adds up to: 10,000 pips a year. Multiply that by the notional you need, and why screw with all this?

Of course, I know the answer: you don't get the PA to give you 40 every day. And for the days you don't, you need the days that give you 140. Ah well.

Add two more sixes to that while I was typing.

And then, of course, there's these moves. Flip got short at 05, and there in 12 minutes is the whole "scalp" day. Choose your poison.
  • #17,732
  • Sep 26, 2011 1:02am Sep 26, 2011 1:02am
[quote=gatorinla;4986534]void
of we hit 3420 now before 3385 i look higher to 3454 min..3362 in play.. 3420 is the risk[/quote]
closed 1/4.. sl in the green
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #17,733
  • Sep 26, 2011 1:02am Sep 26, 2011 1:02am
Quoting kenfen69
No!

I know what I'm hoping happens next, but hope is a dangerous thing.

Do you know what happens next?
All in bro.. 4150 .. 50 big.. panda trade.. [jk]

I watch 1500 level.. now.. very hot to do anything.. at this moment. But Gold going 100 bucks in a day is a climax move..
  • #17,734
  • Sep 26, 2011 1:06am Sep 26, 2011 1:06am
Quoting OldQuant
Which is exactly why I said I don't think much of EUR as a position candidate at these levels. If I'd been smart enough to have taken 36 when it was there, or held what I had initially, that would be different.

Copper sub 3.20 now. Well better than half a margin already today. Watch: tomorrow night the margin goes up, and then the metal bugs blame the falling prices on the margin increase.
Which Copper futures contract are you trading to be precise if i may ask?
  • #17,735
  • Sep 26, 2011 1:07am Sep 26, 2011 1:07am
[quote=gatorinla;4986584]
Quoting gatorinla
void
of we hit 3420 now before 3385 i look higher to 3454 min..3362 in play.. 3420 is the risk[/quote]
closed 1/4.. sl in the green
tp hit. 62 pips to start. not so bad.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #17,736
  • Sep 26, 2011 1:11am Sep 26, 2011 1:11am
Copper's under 3.10 now. Oil's down almost 2 bucks. I guess it took the weekend for folks to figure out the Fed is out of Aces.
  • #17,737
  • Sep 26, 2011 1:11am Sep 26, 2011 1:11am
Quoting Orbital
Which Copper futures contract are you trading to be precise if i may ask?
HGX11

November NYMEX. 25000 lbs.
  • #17,738
  • Sep 26, 2011 1:12am Sep 26, 2011 1:12am
Morning all.

Gloomy weekend. G20 disappointing and second major official "group" to recognize the economy is going bad and the Greek (default is given by all market participants) and EZ problems are Major issue.

Gold up or down, is always a leading indicator. In this case, everybody running to safety (Treasuries) is still the name of the game. Commodities keep steady on the downtrend and dollar "consistently" strengthening as a result.

Euro stuck in the political/indecision mode and nobody believes in a coherent and firm solution short term but markets still "in hope mode" for Germany to approve the new package for Greece (Thursday) and the Greek default to be a "orderly" process during this or next couple months.

A German failure to deliver will trigger panic in my books meanwhile the risk aversion trading continue this week so stock markets leading, currencies lagging. Key report to watch after German news is US Consumer Confidence as US stock markets "hasn't" lost faith (still holding Lehman Support)yet on the economy and they are also in hope mode for a bottom in the horrible numbers latest round...

Euro overextended down but on confirmed break of weekly support so 1.331x/1.329x is wide open below will need a FA break.

GL all this week

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #17,739
  • Sep 26, 2011 1:13am Sep 26, 2011 1:13am
Quoting gatorinla
tp hit. 62 pips to start. not so bad.
Fine start, indeed.
  • #17,740
  • Sep 26, 2011 1:13am Sep 26, 2011 1:13am
Quoting gatorinla
broken 3377 was the last decent target.. now its 3203
next st one.. bounce possible.. the risk is 3567.. 3203 the reward. the closer to the risk is the best r/r.......
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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