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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #3,441
  • Sep 22, 2011 11:37pm Sep 22, 2011 11:37pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
k, i was thinking to post my thought for today...in order to see if somebody has any opinion from what i can learn.
today's morning:
-best probability for type of day is double distribution;
-overnight inventory short;
-opens out of balance and using 8am est as opening time the market in the first 2 periods didn't accept the price and it showed like the range of the day was established. if you add to that the stopping vol from 30 min chart you have a high long probability trade but i like to wait to see haw the c period will act at least the first 10 minutes and see if the stopping vol is followed by what (direct up move, shake out, test?) anyway the idea from any point of view is even the probability of the long trade was high it wasn't necessary to go up right the way...so waiting for a confirmation i missed the entry because the next 30 min bars just skyrocket and after that i wasn't just so sure about everything. so that's the analysis for today and the trade i didn't took.
now at 11:27 pm if you check the 30min chart you will see every up move on high vol was followed by a down candle, so the up move is not sustained is just a mark up? daily profile shows some responsive selling but the asia moved a little to much to have tomorrow another type of trend day...so based on that it will not gonna go to further up.
but the weekly profile which i'm not very familiar with, shows signs of responsive buying...
so with this said i think i will have a limit sell order during the night somewhere at 1.3660 with a very low stop loss. and hopefully in the morning i will have a nice surprise and will have more information in order to get a high probability trade and maybe i will take it this time.
thank you if you took the time to read all this and i wait for your ideas...
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  • #3,442
  • Edited 9:49am Sep 23, 2011 9:31am | Edited 9:49am
Quoting s7c
k, i was thinking to post my thought for today...in order to see if somebody has any opinion from what i can learn.
today's morning:
-best probability for type of day is double distribution;
-overnight inventory short;
-opens out of balance and using 8am est as opening time the market in the first 2 periods didn't accept the price and it showed like the range of the day was established. if you add to that the stopping vol from 30 min chart you have a high long probability trade but i like to wait to see haw the c period will act at least the first...
Im somewhat at a loss for words......
Im not sure what to make of the chart. I see a bar chart with a few s&r lines.
" -best probability for type of day is double distribution;" how did you determine that? The chart is missing the developing profile. Im not sure how you will learn or understand price distribution without a profile. How do you determine what type of day is developing with no profile? Where are the reference points? High/low vol areas (where we are in relation to yesterdays profile?)
Actually, its really hard for me to get a good read the market without the use of the profile. With out a profile, all thats being traded imo is s&r lines from what I see. (That includes the use of standard dev.) Without the profile how do you know what "to do" at those lines?

"...so waiting for a confirmation i missed the entry".... now my comment is very biased because I gave up vsa analysis, for that very reason. With MP I need to take MP entries, and from my past experience, I would keep second guessing my MP analysis, with vsa confirmation and always be late to the party!!!! Especially when working with a learning curve with MP. This is just my experience. Others seem to do just fine. Maybe one of the others can help you with the vsa stuff. With out the profile on the chart, theres not much for me comment on I dont trade vsa. But, if I was trying to learn MP Id start by watching how the profiles develop.

Add: understanding how to read the developing profiles is key.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,443
  • Sep 23, 2011 10:16am Sep 23, 2011 10:16am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting mzvega
Im somewhat at a loss for words......
Im not sure what to make of the chart. I see a bar chart with a few s&r lines.
" -best probability for type of day is double distribution;" how did you determine that? The chart is missing the developing profile. Im not sure how you will learn or understand price distribution without a profile. How do you determine what type of day is developing with no profile? Where are the reference points? High/low vol areas (where we are in relation to yesterdays profile?)
Actually, its really hard for me to get a...
i just learned something, i will not post a message with post-analysis till i will able to manipulate the charts showing what i meant...to post a chart with multiple point like the one attached is no making to much sense...
but let me try to explain some:
Quote
Im not sure what to make of the chart. I see a bar chart with a few s&r lines.
that's the chart proving the "every up move on high was followed by a down bar" and those lines are trigger nr meaning the close of high vol bars from 30 min chart. i posted the chart to reflect my idea...
Quote
The chart is missing the developing profile. Im not sure how you will learn or understand price distribution without a profile. How do you determine what type of day is developing with no profile? Where are the reference points?
as i posted i decided to write the message at evening before i went to sleep when the profile for the day was already over so to show you the profile relecting my words wasn't exactly possible. i based my idea that every MP trader made his own analysis at that point and will know what i am saying. i determined based on the structure the day had at the 8am est and haw time frame transition developed till then so that implied that was the biggest probability for the type of day.
Quote
I would keep second guessing my MP analysis, with vsa confirmation and always be late to the party!!!
i don't think vsa slows the entry moment, i think the volatile days we live are inducing allot of noise and make'it hard to find the high probability entry.
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  • #3,444
  • Edited 11:48am Sep 23, 2011 11:19am | Edited 11:48am
Quoting s7c
i just learned something, i will not post a message with post-analysis till i will able to manipulate the charts showing what i meant...to post a chart with multiple point like the one attached is no making to much sense...
but let me try to explain some:

that's the chart proving the "every up move on high was followed by a down bar" and those lines are trigger nr meaning the close of high vol bars from 30 min chart. i posted the chart to reflect my idea...

as i posted i decided to write the message at evening before i went to sleep when the...

I understood what you meant, Im giving you a hard time but its the mixture of apples & oranges I was trying to reference.

"that's the chart proving the "every up move on high was followed by a down bar" and those lines are trigger nr meaning the close of high vol bars from 30 min chart. i posted the chart to reflect my idea..."
I still dont know how that applies to trading MP. or why that info should effect you MP trading decision if your trading MP concepts.

From a MP point of view, imo its just regular rotation, I just assumed we were trading MP. Understaning price rotation and price distribution. But from regular price rotation, it turned into triggers and nrs, and things. I just dont see how that vsa info was relevent to to MP analysis. I just personally dont like the idea of using vsa to trade a mp chart. Why use the profile at all. Why use the profile if you plan on trading vsa. Its like saying "Im not going to trade MP unless I get a vsa signal that tells me so" Why even use the profile at all.
I apologize, I really should not have made any comment. Because to be honest, I've close my mind to it. and it will always be apples & oranges for me. again I apologize for the hard time
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,445
  • Sep 23, 2011 1:54pm Sep 23, 2011 1:54pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting mzvega
I just personally dont like the idea of using vsa to trade a mp chart. Why use the profile at all. Why use the profile if you plan on trading vsa. Its like saying "Im not going to trade MP unless I get a vsa signal that tells me so" Why even use the profile at all.
everything in trading is about probability...and summing this 2 i think will increase that probability, it's increasing your view above supply vs demand, effort vs result, other time frames(smart money) vs locals(weak holders) etc... but having in mind, this is after all a MP thread i will try to be more careful in the future...i think it's common sense that you analize MP using a MP chart and VSA from VSA and if you do your analysis right you will be able to complete the lack of information or insurance from one.
for the sake of discussion it's like if you take what's best from apple and do the same with oranges it will help in getting a better gem, it will contribute to the final flavor...or it's like waiting for the groceries store to open in order to go to buy a car from car dealer just because you always think better with a full stomach...
have a nice weekend
  • #3,446
  • Edited 3:07pm Sep 23, 2011 2:57pm | Edited 3:07pm
Quoting s7c
everything in trading is about probability...and summing this 2 i think will increase that probability, it's increasing your view above supply vs demand, effort vs result, other time frames(smart money) vs locals(weak holders) etc... but having in mind, this is after all a MP thread i will try to be more careful in the future...i think it's common sense that you analize MP using a MP chart and VSA from VSA and if you do your analysis right you will be able to complete the lack of information or insurance from one.
for the sake of discussion it's...
By all means if it assists in your trading decisions, and it works for you thats great!
I would sugguest a person have a fairly good grasp of "auction market theory" and "MP concenpts" (VSA concepts too) before attempting to use both to compliment each other. I dont think one type analysis should be used to substitute the "lack of knowledge" for another type of analysis. Instead of taking the time to do a different type of analysis, to assist that gap of knowledge, wouldnt it be time better spent educating yourself with the actual material needed to fill that gap?
ps. great analogies!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,447
  • Sep 23, 2011 5:15pm Sep 23, 2011 5:15pm
Quoting mzvega
I dont think one type analysis should be used to substitute the "lack of knowledge" for another type of analysis. Instead of taking the time to do a different type of analysis, to assist that gap of knowledge, wouldnt it be time better spent educating yourself with the actual material needed to fill that gap?
I agree. The only similarity between MP and VSA is that both methods are looking for highs and lows and CTT'ing, but they are different animals. I've only been trading MP for about 7 months and I feel like I've just begun to scratch the surface. I was recently introduced to VSA (after having heard of VSA for 5 years). My pick between the 2 is MP 100%. Better field of vision and outlay of what is happening behind the screen.

Kind Regards
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #3,448
  • Sep 24, 2011 1:13am Sep 24, 2011 1:13am
People are different and therefore have different way to figure out where is supply and demand...some use MP and some use VSA and of course there are others ...extremists use all of it...


The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #3,449
  • Edited 12:35pm Sep 24, 2011 12:21pm | Edited 12:35pm
Hello All,
I see that the valued contributors on this thread made Mkt Profile Indicator for Metatrader 4 there have been updates along the way ....I was wondering which which is the most latest Indicator.

If someone can post here or provide the link that would be great.

Thanks

I think I found it here:
http://eyesfx.web44.net/dload/

If there is anything else out there which would facilitate then please let me know.
  • #3,450
  • Edited 4:33am Sep 26, 2011 4:15am | Edited 4:33am
Quoting mima
People are different and therefore have different way to figure out where is supply and demand...some use MP and some use VSA and of course there are others ...extremists use all of it...

then you have a group of people who arent very well versed in either one.......

Let me share one of these “gems” of coversation of what happens when you start mixing “apples & oranges”...............

Originally Posted by Evak…..
FYI, spike base test during UK session, a good structural entry if u have limit orders set. But if not, the next best trade location is the NY opening with a hidden selling bar on 30min b4 NY opens........
dj0ker : What is b4? Could you show this hidden selling bar?

Originally Posted by Evak
Hidden selling when there is an increase in volume w/o significant increase in price. The Law of Effort vs. Results the law as apply just prior to NY opens yesterday...
dj0ker : ok i undestood what is hidden selling. but what is b4 mean?


Originally Posted by dj0ker
...but what is b4 mean?
mima : "b4" is a core of Auction Market Theory and Market Profile and therefore crucial for understanding and interpretation of Market profile. You have to learn it and understand on your own...until then you can ask about "b4" million times the answer will depend on you.

Originally Posted by dj0ker
...but what is b4 mean?

foxybunny: Original quote:
"30min b4 NY opens". This is same meaning as "30-minutes Before New York opens"
"b4" is the abbreviation for the word "Before".
Hope this clears it up.


interesting how that question was answered in the right context correctly by someone who doesn’t actively trade mp or vsa. Were trading mp and that person looking for vsa type of answers & solutions, before using MP analysis.

Now without having to mix apples & oranges and without confusing someone with a bunch of vsa sounding “verbage” one could have sugguested that with further MP education, one might have reconized that there was a 3-I day, and the following PA told you a session before hand it was a “no brainer sell day” That small bit of MP info, told you it was a high probability sell day, a session before the vsa analysis was needed, making it “old news” to someone well versed in mp. imo, the plain old mp 3-I day signals came a session earlier than the use of the vsa. Don’t get it twisted, Evak is a very well versed trader, in both vsa and mp, enough to understand how to use one to compliment another and in what context. But for someone new, who wants to learn AMT/MP, I think that being versed in 3-I and 21-1R days provided a earlier signal, making the mp analysis of better value compared to the vsa, to a new mp trader.

My concern is people substituting vsa to fill in the “lack of knowledge”/ “lack of effort to read a book & educate themselves” about the MP analysis they’re trying to trade with.
But my real point is this………

Being that since no one else wanted to "step up to the plate" and resopnd to the post, I feel its my choice not to have to go over the fundamentals vsa analysis, to answer MP related questions in a MP related thread. I feel it was within my choice to let someone know that if they would like me to respond to their posts and continue an “open dialogue” with me , about MP, we have to keep it along the lines AMT/MP.
but if it makes you feel better mima, to be fair to all the vsa traders in the thread, next time instead of trying to be of help, I will make sure I go back and continue to let those vsa types of posts, go unanswered by me. its best to wait for qualified VSA trader from a different thread to stop by to help explain the fundamentals of AMT/ MP to the rest of the thread. Being that I only trade AMT/MP, and don’t feel it necessary to add vsa to my “repertoire” , I now feel that any vsa trader will do a better job of answering the majority of questions here better than I can.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,451
  • Sep 26, 2011 4:36am Sep 26, 2011 4:36am
Quoting mzvega
Originally Posted by dj0ker
...but what is b4 mean?...

Before I answered on this question s/he asked aleready two times that question and on top of that page alexm andswerd it already but s/he did not read or did not believe...so I was just kidding on my way...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #3,452
  • Sep 26, 2011 5:30am Sep 26, 2011 5:30am
Quoting mima
Before I answered on this question s/he asked aleready two times that question and on top of that page alexm andswerd it already but s/he did not read or did not believe...so I was just kidding on my way...
you may have been kidding........
but Im serious when I say I cant/wont/refuse give AMT/MP answers that come wrapped up as vsa questions. I dont have need to use vsa to interpret AMT/MP. For those that do, those questions would be best answered by the vsa traders themselves. I will keep my comments to myself.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,453
  • Sep 26, 2011 5:52am Sep 26, 2011 5:52am
Quoting mzvega
you may have been kidding........
but Im serious when I say I cant/wont/refuse give AMT/MP answers that come wrapped up as vsa questions. I dont have need to use vsa to interpret AMT/MP. For those that do, those questions would be best answered by the vsa traders themselves. I will keep my comments to myself.
Again I did not comment either MP or VSA ...just was kidding since s/he was asking same question two times and it was already answered on same page...othervise I wouldnt bother to answer at all that ( "b4") question.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #3,454
  • Sep 26, 2011 7:15am Sep 26, 2011 7:15am
Quoting mima
People are different and therefore have different way to figure out where is supply and demand...some use MP and some use VSA and of course there are others ...extremists use all of it...

And like I stated before, for those that use vsa supply & demand analysis, to trade MP, would be better off having a vsa trader interpret the fundamentals of AMT/MP and answer questions. I cant give MP answers that come wrapped up as VSA questions. As you stated above, to different ways of doing analysis. So I will keep my comments and analysis to myself, and leave the teaching of AMT/MP to the vsa traders.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,455
  • Sep 26, 2011 7:25am Sep 26, 2011 7:25am
Quoting mzvega
...So I will keep my comments and analysis to myself...
OK, What is your problem today?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #3,456
  • Sep 26, 2011 11:26am Sep 26, 2011 11:26am
I am posting twice today so that those following only Market Profile will easily find this explanation of a 3I Day.

To understand the nature of a 3I Day, you need to understand the concept of Initiating Activity and the elements of the structure of a traditional Market Profile.

Initiating Activity is abnormal activity. For selling activity this means that as prices move lower, instead of attracting buyers, the market attracts sellers. The question is lower than what”? Peter Steidlmayer referenced the previous day’s Value Area. So, any activity that is within or below the previous day’s Value Area, is described as Initiating Activity.

The elements of a traditonal Market Profile are: Extremes, Range Extensions and TPO Counts. (See Mind Over Markets).

FIGURE 1 is a profile of Friday March 7. It shows a marginal 3I Day (the Volume and TPO Counts are almost even). A 3I day is a Free Exposure Day: sellers initiating positions in the previous day’s value area, ought to be able, at worst, to scratch the trade during the Initial Balance.

http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/wp-co...kt-profile.jpg

http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/marke...i-day-237.html
  • #3,457
  • Edited 12:25pm Sep 26, 2011 12:11pm | Edited 12:25pm
Hello Everyone,
I am getting my feet wet with AMT/MP. So far i have been able to go through the following Mp concepts such as TPOs, POCs & what it means when POC migrates up or down or when price moves down or up but POC doesn't, Excess structure and its symmetry etc, shape of profile (p & b) and what it means.

I added the MP indicator provided by bandung can someone help me understand how to read in it on my chart. Should I read it in relationship to the bars on the my chart or it should be analysed separately and I should trurn off the bars? One MP bull or bear bar seem to be going over multiple bars on the chart, what does that mean?

Also what I would have to do (in terms of marking unfair prices on H1) and go down the TF on say M15 and take a trade there. Can this be done using this indi on MT4 or i need another platform or another indicator is required.?

I'll appreciate the input or direction to resources which may help me in interpreting this.

I hope I am making sense in what I am trying to ask.
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  • #3,458
  • Sep 26, 2011 12:57pm Sep 26, 2011 12:57pm
Quoting MktScape
I am posting twice today so that those following only Market Profile will easily find this explanation of a 3I Day.

To understand the nature of a 3I Day, you need to understand the concept of Initiating Activity and the elements of the structure of a traditional Market Profile.

Initiating Activity is abnormal activity. For selling activity this means that as prices move lower, instead of attracting buyers, the market attracts sellers. The question is lower than what”? Peter Steidlmayer referenced the previous day’s Value Area. So, any...
I really appreciate you taking time to share. Great explaination!


You definately improved my attitude...... somewhat .
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,459
  • Edited 1:19pm Sep 26, 2011 1:08pm | Edited 1:19pm
Quoting MktScape
Hello Everyone,
I am getting my feet wet with AMT/MP. So far i have been able to go through the following Mp concepts such as TPOs, POCs & what it means when POC migrates up or down or when price moves down or up but POC doesn't, Excess structure and its symmetry etc, shape of profile (p & b) and what it means.

I added the MP indicator provided by bandung can someone help me understand how to read in it on my chart. Should I read it in relationship to the bars on the my chart or it should be analysed separately and I should trurn off the bars?...
Start here,That post explains the features if the indi
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...60#post4550060

If you use the bars along with, always keep in mind that no matter what tf your looking at the current bar is always were you are in relation to the current profile. Just change tf the indi is dynamic, the profile on the hour is still the same profile on the 15.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,460
  • Sep 26, 2011 1:18pm Sep 26, 2011 1:18pm
Quoting mzvega
I really appreciate you taking time to share. Great explaination!


You definately improved my attitude...... somewhat .
Glad you feel better.
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