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Supply and Demand trading with Fibs

  • #81
  • Sep 22, 2011 10:04pm Sep 22, 2011 10:04pm
hi dean, any ideas on upmove or downmove?

price making real nice wedge and possible bear flag later.

my ichis say buy, so im scalping 10 pips buy.

also possible dragon.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #82
  • Sep 22, 2011 10:07pm Sep 22, 2011 10:07pm
Quoting bumapatria
hi dean, any ideas on upmove or downmove?

price making real nice wedge and possible bear flag later.

my ichis say buy, so im scalping 10 pips buy.

also possible dragon.
im going to bed soon, so not picking any more i missed the last move upwards on eu by 1.8 pips, nice move up off my demand zone marked on eurusd. But im close on 100 pips today for scalping so im more than happy
  • #83
  • Sep 22, 2011 10:09pm Sep 22, 2011 10:09pm
Quoting nawlins51
I am on board with ya. I love this strategy. In and out and its how I like it. I hate holding a trade for a longtime and why I hate the H1 and up. Going to practice. Have noticed on the chart we worked on together the lower zone has the 50 fib running through the middle. So thats a pretty good one.
yea you will notice most zones will have a fib of some sort, confluencing with it, also i do trade long term trades, some for weeks taking the market for 400 pips or so, but im showing 5 mins trades because i can show more to ppl faster just the power this technique has
  • #84
  • Sep 23, 2011 1:09am Sep 23, 2011 1:09am
Sweeet!!! Got out with 15 pips. Didn't manage trade like I should but happy it worked so was a little gun shy and got anxious.

The middle blue line of my chart is a zone off the M1. It comes off a fib so I like it. The top one is where i want it to eventually go so we can go short. If it passes that top zone look on the M15 and they have a nice one sitting there for a short. Trust me you can see it. For now it passed through the bottom demand zone so its canceled. It may retest it and shoot back up. But won't take it since the rules say eliminate it if it breaches the zone. Its not as strong anymore. Anyway enough of my rambling just want to give some heads up on possible next areas of interest on the EU.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #85
  • Sep 23, 2011 3:48am Sep 23, 2011 3:48am


Thanks Deankenny for starting this thread, will go thru Sam Sieden's videos and Rocky's thread this weekend and will start posting my learning charts, It's really great you are maintaining the spirit by showing live charts, it gives us great confidence to trade this way. Thanks again..
  • #86
  • Sep 23, 2011 4:24am Sep 23, 2011 4:24am
Thanks Deankenny for getting this under way. Love to join you guys get skype set up this weekend. Will follow along on the thread till then.
  • #87
  • Sep 23, 2011 4:28am Sep 23, 2011 4:28am
I see your an Aussie. Im a Kiwi good to see you joining in mate. This is as close as you will get to the holy grail of trading.
You will learn a heap from Deankenny and the others just keep an open mind.
  • #88
  • Sep 23, 2011 4:44am Sep 23, 2011 4:44am
Hello members,

Just start my day with +10 pips on eurusd (Bought 1.3514 closed +10 pips)..

Here is a link for SD traders about selecting good zones.
http://www.tradingacademy.com/lesson...ed_article.htm

hope this will help
  • #89
  • Sep 23, 2011 4:51am Sep 23, 2011 4:51am
Quoting Pip26
Hello members,

Just start my day with +10 pips on eurusd (Bought 1.3514 closed +10 pips)..

Here is a link for SD traders about selecting good zones.
http://www.tradingacademy.com/lesson...ed_article.htm

hope this will help
thank God. I thought I was a retard for picking that zone for a minute there. I chickened out with 3 pips hehe.I bought in at 35169 and closed on that same candle. Here is the zones I have. Only issue I am having is entering. I missed that first touch because I had a sell limit at the top of the zone. I am not sure if I am doing it right but I feel its a conservative way to allow a small stop loss even if I miss a trade. Whats your thoughts about entering?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #90
  • Sep 23, 2011 5:16am Sep 23, 2011 5:16am
This is a little hidden gem I found recently posted on another forum. its Sam S. Odd Enhancer's he teaches his students to rate Supply and Demand zones. If I need to remove this post I will just let me know.

PROBABILITY ENHANCER
Score
Max Score
Strength of the Move

Strength of the move (max 2): How did prices leave the level: strong fashion, or a more gradual move away from the level. Gives clues to supply and demand imbalance at the level. Strongest turn in price level is where supply and demand is most out of balance. So our quest is to look for price levels where supply and demand is most out of balance. The biggest clue in how in balance or out of balance prices are at a level, is how quickly they leave. The more quickly they move, the more out of balance they are.


2
Reward/Risk

1. How far did prices rally up from demand level before coming back to it. That is initial profit margin.

2. If buying at support or demand, where is the nearest area of supply. If risking 20 cents on trade, is nearest supply level 60 cents or farther away? If not, we are not interested in the trade.

Support and demand levels all around, we only want to take the best.


2
Big Picture
Looking at daily charts for big picture. Most of Sam's trades are intraday, but he still looks at daily chart for big picture. Big picture is important to day trader for two reasons:

1. big picture trend up or down - determines which side we want to be on

2. Where are big picture support and demand levels? We dont want to short right above a demand level. We only know that from the big picture.
If we are taking shorter time frame short positions in context of a big down trend, then this gets a 2. If we are shorting during a bigger picture uptrend, and we are close to big picture support, it is a 0 or a 1.



2
Retracements / Tests
We may look at this different than conventional wisdom. Once prices have left a level, (example of picture explanations), sell zone with a lot of candles - we want to enter on the first retracement, it is highest probability entry. First time entry is a 2. second time is a 1. Third time is a 0.

This is all just motion into mass. The mass is the supply and demand, the big stack of orders.

Chopping tree example: Every swing removes some of the mass. The more swings, the more chance to go through.




2
Time at Level
Very much in line with first enhancer - strength. At price levels with supply and level out of balance the most, price will spend the least amount of time at the level. The textbooks talk about this in the opposite way.

At price levels with the most imbalance, price will spend the least amount of time: few candles.

If price is in balance, price will stay there a long time. it is equilibrium, we dont want to trade there. We want to trade at the extremes.

Question: How many candles in what time frame: Be very careful about coming up with a specific number. Changing time frame will change the number of candles. At your time frame, compare the number of candles to time spent at other levels, dont get hung up on specific number.


1
Arrival
How did price arrive come back to the level. We want to be anywhere near other levels. We don't want new resistance levels before we buy, or new support levels to form right before we sell. Strong arrival usually means strong departure at the level.


1

Total score:
The worst possible case is an 8 - This can be a confirmation entry.
Here are the scores:
If it was a 9 or 10, it could be a limit order. - limit order
8 - confirmation entry
7 - No trade if less than 7


Another odds enhancer for short term traders: Time of day that trade is meeting entry. The opportunities that we point out that meet entry in first 45-1 hour of the day, these are usually golden opportunities. Later in the day is often not as great.
Coming from the institutional side of trading, you know, because you see the order flow. Time of day odds enhancer is, in any market, supply and demand is most out of balance at or near the opening of trading in any market. I saw this day after day. Given that, if you are good at picking out levels and turning points, those will be most profitable. If entering in the first hour of the day, the best day traders make their money in the first hour of the day. I don't know anyone who makes money just trading in the afternoon. If they are trading in the afternoon, they didn't make money in the morning, and it will be tougher. After all the orders get processed, usually supply and demand are back in balance.
If you dont know what you are doing, don't trade at the open. But if you do, trade because that is the time when most of the transfer between accounts occurs. Morning is the golden opportunity.
  • #91
  • Sep 23, 2011 5:28am Sep 23, 2011 5:28am
Quoting nawlins51
thank God. I thought I was a retard for picking that zone for a minute there. I chickened out with 3 pips hehe.I bought in at 35169 and closed on that same candle. Here is the zones I have. Only issue I am having is entering. I missed that first touch because I had a sell limit at the top of the zone. I am not sure if I am doing it right but I feel its a conservative way to allow a small stop loss even if I miss a trade. Whats your thoughts about entering?
that was a quick 10 pips..... u can be conservative with entereing on top/bottom of zone but this can give u less chances.. and high chances of clearing the zone... look at my chart below it shows the power of touch trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #92
  • Sep 23, 2011 5:28am Sep 23, 2011 5:28am
Quoting nawlins51
This is a little hidden gem I found recently posted on another forum. its Sam S. Odd Enhancer's he teaches his students to rate Supply and Demand zones. If I need to remove this post I will just let me know.

[b]PROBABILITY ENHANCER
Score
Max Score
Strength of the Move

Strength of the move (max 2): How did prices leave the level: strong fashion, or a more gradual move away from the level. Gives clues to supply and demand imbalance at the level. Strongest turn in price level is where supply and demand is most out of balance. So our quest is...

nice article
  • #93
  • Sep 23, 2011 5:32am Sep 23, 2011 5:32am
Hey Shogeki, Dean and others.

I've been lurking around Rocky's thread for the last few weeks and was a little dissapointed when he said he wont be contributing to often but it's good to see that Dean is picking up where he left off. I'm only new to this world hence why I've never had much to say on here but I'm just trying to gather as much decent infomation that I can then add when i actually know what I'm talkin about. I would like to join the Skype group but i think everyone is in bed when I'm online

Cheers Burkey
  • #94
  • Sep 23, 2011 5:40am Sep 23, 2011 5:40am
Quoting Pip26
that was a quick 10 pips..... u can be conservative with entereing on top/bottom of zone but this can give u less chances.. and high chances of clearing the zone... look at my chart below it shows the power of touch trade.

I see and thanks. Missed that GU mark on my chart. I have mine marked around the 5400 area. I will play around with it. I need to practice more because I am just not comfortable with me identifying the zones correctly.
  • #95
  • Sep 23, 2011 5:49am Sep 23, 2011 5:49am
Hey everyone, well this is exploding quite quick, the room has become extremely popular over the past 12 hours or so.

A few answers from some posts i read, no im not an Aussie lol, im from England, someone in the room thought i was from Massachessets last night too, so dont know where everyone getting these crazy ideas from ;P

Pips26, well done you are making pips using the power of this technique already, you dont realise how that makes me feel to watch other people gaining from my teachings, its a wonderful feeling

For the person who posted the odds enhancers from Sam Seiden, absolutely excellent, every just copy and paste that, put it down on Word, print off a load of copies, and start going through it before each trade, its magic trust me.
  • #96
  • Sep 23, 2011 5:52am Sep 23, 2011 5:52am
Quoting nawlins51
I see and thanks. Missed that GU mark on my chart. I have mine marked around the 5400 area. I will play around with it. I need to practice more because I am just not comfortable with me identifying the zones correctly.
It just need practice after some time u will be comfortable with it... i m trying to get more and more hand on it...

btw: 5400 is a good zone
  • #97
  • Sep 23, 2011 5:55am Sep 23, 2011 5:55am
Quoting deankenny21
Hey everyone, well this is exploding quite quick, the room has become extremely popular over the past 12 hours or so.

A few answers from some posts i read, no im not an Aussie lol, im from England, someone in the room thought i was from Massachessets last night too, so dont know where everyone getting these crazy ideas from ;P

Pips26, well done you are making pips using the power of this technique already, you dont realise how that makes me feel to watch other people gaining from my teachings, its a wonderful feeling

For the person who posted...
Hey Dean how u doing??

sorry for today i will join u late in room as i have some issue with my skype.
thnx for ur words really enjoying it.. i m not a daytrader/scalper but trading this stuff really makes some stuff.
  • #98
  • Sep 23, 2011 5:57am Sep 23, 2011 5:57am
Hey deankenny21, if you add a dollar index chart to your arsenal you will be on point even more tick for tick,only live chart i know is with forexpros click on advance chart put it side by side with any eur/usd chart (negative correlation) to confirm that you are right !!!!
  • #99
  • Sep 23, 2011 5:57am Sep 23, 2011 5:57am
Quoting Pip26
Hey Dean how u doing??

sorry for today i will join u late in room as i have some issue with my skype.
thnx for ur words really enjoying it.. i m not a daytrader/scalper but trading this stuff really makes some stuff.
Im not really a scalper either, I tend to look for the daily setups, but it works on all timeframes, so I wanted to open peoples eyes to the simple way the market works, forget your fancy indis, forget your macds and rsi gobedygook. All them follow one thing, they follow thier master, and thier master is Supply and Demand
  • #100
  • Sep 23, 2011 6:08am Sep 23, 2011 6:08am
even better - just go to sam seidans videos / webinars - spend a few months watching them and add them to your trading

he is at online trading academy
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