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Flag trading the trend

  • #5,201
  • Sep 21, 2011 3:28am Sep 21, 2011 3:28am
Morning everyone

How's it going?

Took one this morning but wow!! There seemed to be some serious support about. Not our good friends at SNB I suppose?

Mind you the 200 ema was doing a good job today, well worth keeping an eye on I think.

Should be a good day for selling as long as SNB keep out of it.

Keep those flags flying.
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #5,202
  • Sep 21, 2011 4:38am Sep 21, 2011 4:38am
Ok so we have a strong pull back going on here so when do we enter last 15 min HH was at 1.3725 so thats our line in the sand need a turn before there otherwise we are back into an uptrend and looking for buy entries.

Personally I'm now looking for reversals on my 1 min chart like a 123 or a 2b reversal, but where are the possible pionts of resistance where this might happen?

1) Big nos 1.3700

2) 5 min resitance at 1.3712?

3) 15 min last HH at 1.3725

In fact as this pullback looks a bit strong, unless the reversal is painfully obvious I might watch it happen then trade next pullback after reversal.

How you guys seeing it?
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #5,203
  • Sep 21, 2011 5:09am Sep 21, 2011 5:09am
Still tonnes to learn with this. I'm not keen on the double test of the previous low, but it does result in a pair of tweezers (look on the 5min), which is yet another reversal indicator and of course the stop holds. Still not entirely sure where to set the TP either, but this one proves a winner, with the likely target, the last LH giving a realistic (i didn't trade it) 45 point target...

*pointer should say; 'go long at first full candle close back above the line'

Here's the chart;

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...k72/2brev4.png
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  • #5,204
  • Sep 21, 2011 5:26am Sep 21, 2011 5:26am
Market always loves to give evidence for both long and short theories!
Here's my current conflict of interests...

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...2/guessing.png
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #5,205
  • Sep 21, 2011 6:16am Sep 21, 2011 6:16am
Quoting Delite
Cableguy

I really like your touchpoints to define what constitutes a decent flag. In essence, you look for a break of the previous high/low and wait for an immediate pullback. You then wait for at least two touches in order to define a flag and then wait for the sub. When do you decide when/if to drop down to a lower t/f?
Delite, thankyou....

with regards to time frames, i found experimenting with them seems to find the right SUB to suit. As a generalisation i will watch for a flag for upto around 30mins on the 1min and then switch to the 2min thereafter. Quite often a 1min Sub&trigger will occur, but only go to create a touchpoint within a larger flag. After approx 1hr 30mins i find the 5min chart is more accurate. Its the strong SUB that is all important, it must definitively cross a flagline and trigger the CCI simultaneously, with the flag being of a good quality (with at least 2/3 touchpoints). Don't forget checking the 15min for set-ups too! These appear to be the most accurate. In fact, imo, the slightly longer time frames are far more accurate when looking for flags alone. Its only when you can combine the 2B's and 123's that the 1&2mins come into their own...

(all in my humble opinion of course!)
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  • #5,206
  • Edited 6:47am Sep 21, 2011 6:27am | Edited 6:47am
Saw this same kind of algo just last week;

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...k72/2brev5.png
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  • #5,207
  • Sep 21, 2011 7:35am Sep 21, 2011 7:35am
Anyone want me to stop posting?
I feel like i'm taking over the thread!

Did anyone get this one?...

This is also my twopenneth regarding stops to BE too soon.
I believe its been proven to show a high failure rate. You will note Mr.D, only raises said stop when very close to target and then advocates taking near as damn it if PA revisits that point.
The fact is you will have many many stop outs that could indeed go on to be winners, if you'd only trust your stop. Yes its nice to view it as a trade that you can no longer lose, but without running your winners, you leave yourself open to stop out after stop out and then possibly an equal number of failures vs winners. Of course, it takes a hell of a lot of hours testing the theory, but it stands to reason the market knows where you entered the trade and will more often than not go back to that very point to test the early stop movers!
Anyway, here's a chart of a nice little 1min set up, despite some heat, was a 15 point winner;

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...k72/2brev6.png
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #5,208
  • Edited 8:44am Sep 21, 2011 8:23am | Edited 8:44am
By the Eur lately... it seems to be non-stop conforming!

Also, notice how a stop to breakeven move would have been taken out by the candle with the tail that spikes down!

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...k72/123rev.png

*'Exercising; oooops!'
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #5,209
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:19am Sep 21, 2011 10:19am
Quoting The Cableguy
This is also my twopenneth regarding stops to BE too soon...
Very good points, Cableguy.. I know I would not have held the two examples you have given. I've reached the point of just accepting it as one of my trading weaknesses. Good traders do indeed seem to expect a test of the entry area & I think D's 2.4 pip rule was because of this issue...

"My twopenneth"... an old Ukrainian saying, I suppose (not) !?
  • #5,210
  • Sep 21, 2011 11:03am Sep 21, 2011 11:03am
Quoting The Cableguy
Anyone want me to stop posting?
I feel like i'm taking over the thread!

Did anyone get this one?...

This is also my twopenneth regarding stops to BE too soon.
I believe its been proven to show a high failure rate. You will note Mr.D, only raises said stop when very close to target and then advocates taking near as damn it if PA revisits that point.
The fact is you will have many many stop outs that could indeed go on to be winners, if you'd only trust your stop. Yes its nice to view it as a trade that you can no longer lose, but without...
Please don't stop posting.

Your thoughts are more then welcome.

Just had little time to do it today.

Some good opportunities today, by the range method that you described above.

GL
PH
  • #5,211
  • Sep 21, 2011 1:17pm Sep 21, 2011 1:17pm
Well, i think in Ukrainian, i would be giving my 2hryvna worth!

Lots of lovely stuff happening today. It does beg the question though as to whether or not to use a trailing stop. I tend not too. Points in the bag and all that, but of course trends like this afternoon would see far bigger gains from just holding and trailing your stop... I believe that is with the benefit of hindsight, especially considering this mornings rollercoaster action! I believe the system is designed to (almost) gaurantee the next 15/20/25 points (depending on timescale) and thus i trade it so...

This is a truly awesome chart!

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...72/123rev2.png
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  • #5,212
  • Sep 22, 2011 4:48am Sep 22, 2011 4:48am
Not exactly a system trade, although possibly relevant as we do look for Support to become resistance and vica versa...

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r.../channeltr.png
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  • #5,213
  • Sep 22, 2011 5:21am Sep 22, 2011 5:21am
to day with zlr(retracement )
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  • #5,214
  • Sep 22, 2011 11:21am Sep 22, 2011 11:21am
Took this 5m Flag at beginning of FF session. Complete with a 123. Also lost a 1m flag yesterday. I have not lost 2 flags in a row in over 2 months. Any comments on my oversights welcome.

Yesterday someone asked about other time frames. So I started looking at daily charts. My findings are "There is life outside of the 1 & 5 minute charts".

Darryl
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  • #5,215
  • Sep 22, 2011 11:43am Sep 22, 2011 11:43am
Quoting diamonddbw
Took this 5m Flag at beginning of FF session. Complete with a 123. Also lost a 1m flag yesterday. I have not lost 2 flags in a row in over 2 months. Any comments on my oversights welcome.

Yesterday someone asked about other time frames. So I started looking at daily charts. My findings are "There is life outside of the 1 & 5 minute charts".

Darryl

Hi Darryl

May I offer an opinion?

Looking for 1-2-3 pattern, I think you need to see a HL, H, LL, LH for a short or the opposite for a long. In defining those swings, then a definition from Strat's thread is quite helpful -

"For confirmation of a swing, the OPPOSITE end of the candle must be taken out (exceeded). So, for a CONFIRMED swing high, the highest candle must have its LOW taken out and Vicky Verka for a CONFIRMED swing low. "

So, in the chart attached, I have illustrated how I would see the 1-2-3 pattern.

I am still refining my thinking all the time, so please come back and tell me if you think I am wrong!
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  • #5,216
  • Sep 22, 2011 12:17pm Sep 22, 2011 12:17pm
Quoting Delite
Hi Darryl

May I offer an opinion?

Looking for 1-2-3 pattern, I think you need to see a HL, H, LL, LH for a short or the opposite for a long. In defining those swings, then a definition from Strat's thread is quite helpful -

"For confirmation of a swing, the OPPOSITE end of the candle must be taken out (exceeded). So, for a CONFIRMED swing high, the highest candle must have its LOW taken out and Vicky Verka for a CONFIRMED swing low. "

So, in the chart attached, I have illustrated how I would see the 1-2-3 pattern.

I am still refining...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I'm sure you have a valid point but I'm not getting it. Would you break it down for me when you have time please?
Thanks,
D
  • #5,217
  • Sep 22, 2011 12:27pm Sep 22, 2011 12:27pm
HI Darryl

Of course. Just going to walk my dog, so I will break it down tomorrow.

Best wishes
  • #5,218
  • Sep 22, 2011 1:34pm Sep 22, 2011 1:34pm
zlr+tlb in NY lunch time!
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  • #5,219
  • Sep 22, 2011 2:22pm Sep 22, 2011 2:22pm
Diamond dbw; 'My findings are "There is life outside of the 1 & 5 minute charts".'

My sentiments exactly. You have to keep an eye on 'em all! I still find the 1min a bit hit and miss i must confess... it seems the longer the timescale, the more reliable it becomes...

I haven't dabbled with the daily much yet, i find i need to be more active, but for entries to swing trades, its yet another potential weapon...
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  • #5,220
  • Sep 22, 2011 2:36pm Sep 22, 2011 2:36pm
Hi again

i don't really understand how u guys identify bad trades and how to avoid those ranging markets and would trading the 4hr mean checking the trend from a higher tf like
daily and weekly?
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