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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #3,421
  • Sep 20, 2011 5:10pm Sep 20, 2011 5:10pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting mzvega
You ask some of the hardest questions
Alittle bit of both, and it depends. I personally feel that the longer term players(otf) carry more weight than the local traders. I use the longer profile daily/weekly for my direction. If im below value on the higher TF (not skirting the edge of value) that means otf buyers will be looking for a good place to step in and get resopnsive. And that place is usually were the locals believe prices are falling through the floor. Im long and stay biased only when pa is traveling from below value taveling up...
oauuu, i didn't even hope to get such a detailed answer...thank you. now i need to work around to see haw i can get the weekly profile.
i asked this question because i kept using as a previous the previous session and wasn't sure if i'm doing something wrong in my analysis or i'm just knocking at the wrong door...
Quote
the important info imo is in the distribution of prices (the shape of the profile) . you may be below value but thats not a good enough reasson to get long imo, what the shape of the profile means, is everything.

maybe i'm not there yet in the book where i can understand what do you mean by shape? the only thing i can think now is the five typical daily patterns but it must be more then that...
i'm definitively not a scalper so i'm more inclined to keep a trade open a little longer and by the way my plan as a trader is to trade eur/usd, gbp/usd and not keeping trades over the weekend, trade s&p500 during the day and options on etf futures like oil, gld, slv&spy during a month...right now i work my ass out with forex and demo options, maybe somewhere next year i would get there if i would not change my mind...
  • #3,422
  • Sep 20, 2011 6:31pm Sep 20, 2011 6:31pm
Quoting s7c
oauuu, i didn't even hope to get such a detailed answer...thank you. now i need to work around to see haw i can get the weekly profile.
i asked this question because i kept using as a previous the previous session and wasn't sure if i'm doing something wrong in my analysis or i'm just knocking at the wrong door...


maybe i'm not there yet in the book where i can understand what do you mean by shape? the only thing i can think now is the five typical daily patterns but it must be more then that...
i'm definitively not a scalper so i'm more inclined...
Here's a small video, I found awhile back. I liked it because he uses "auction market theory" to trade without using the market profile graphic, per se. Its the "idea" behind the graphic. dont get too caught up in the indicator itself, understanding the "idea" behind the graphic is key!!!!

Inserted Video
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,423
  • Sep 21, 2011 9:29am Sep 21, 2011 9:29am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
seems k my profile for this week? that's all i can for now...
today the 8am est provided better open then 8:30...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,424
  • Sep 21, 2011 9:53am Sep 21, 2011 9:53am
Quoting s7c
seems k my profile for this week? that's all i can for now...
today the 8am est provided better open then 8:30...
Here's current Quarter, Monthly, Weekly, profiles
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Q.jpg Size: 328 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: M.jpg Size: 338 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: W.jpg Size: 196 KB
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,425
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:03am Sep 21, 2011 10:03am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting mzvega
Here's current Quarter, Monthly, Weekly, profiles
Thank you, I will save them...for current week my profile seems fine
  • #3,426
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:05am Sep 21, 2011 10:05am
Quoting tgwhbb
here's a short on ES today. details in the chart attached...personally I'm expecting the bear flag on the daily to break down, as mentioned in one of my lasts posts with target of around 1040 to start.
TP 1 reached overnight, still holding trade, increasing TP to WIBLx1 around 1150 which also coincides with monthly VAL on ES. SL set to BE for now, will re-asses in NY afternoon as I'm now expecting a pullback high to be made then.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2011-09-21 at 10.51.17 AM.png Size: 79 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #3,427
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:06am Sep 21, 2011 10:06am
Quoting s7c
Thank you, I will save them...for current week my profile seems fine

At the end of each week you could save a picture of your completed weekly profile and use it the following week for reference.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,428
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:22am Sep 21, 2011 10:22am
Quoting tgwhbb
TP 1 reached overnight, still holding trade, increasing TP to WIBLx1 around 1150 which also coincides with monthly VAL on ES. SL set to BE for now, will re-asses in NY afternoon as I'm now expecting a pullback high to be made then.
I know this might sound like a stupid question, but can you trade that chart 24h's or are you limited to market hours?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,429
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:27am Sep 21, 2011 10:27am
this chart is futures so i can trade it 24h. My longer term trades with my other broker are using ETF's so only during market hours.
Change is the only constant
  • #3,430
  • Sep 21, 2011 5:20pm Sep 21, 2011 5:20pm
long at 1.0046 ...3rd SD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #3,431
  • Sep 21, 2011 5:59pm Sep 21, 2011 5:59pm
Quoting mzvega
Here's a small video, I found awhile back. I liked it because he uses "auction market theory" to trade without using the market profile graphic, per se. Its the "idea" behind the graphic. dont get too caught up in the indicator itself, understanding the "idea" behind the graphic is key!!!!

http://youtu.be/AQNYjG5D2T4
Thanks for the video .... simple but to the point. I am new to Auction Market Theory and Market Profile ..... going through some James Dalton and Frank Butera material..... look forward to learn from the experienced traders here.

Thanks.
  • #3,432
  • Sep 21, 2011 6:04pm Sep 21, 2011 6:04pm
Quoting mima
long at 1.0046 ...3rd SD
Hey mima, whats those lines on your charts? ...pivots?
  • #3,433
  • Sep 21, 2011 6:16pm Sep 21, 2011 6:16pm
Quoting MktScape
...pivots?
Standard deviations
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #3,434
  • Sep 22, 2011 12:49am Sep 22, 2011 12:49am
Quoting mzvega
Maybe this might help.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post4514678

"Mind over markets", "markets in profie" both have detailed checklists

edit: added same attachment
Sorry for the tardy reply, I've been on a trip. Just wanted to thank you for the great link to this info. I have enjoyed (and learned a lot) from your posts!

Thank you,
Neo
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #3,435
  • Sep 22, 2011 12:51am Sep 22, 2011 12:51am
Quoting Evak
Is a broad question as even for me MP is still my 2ndary tool till i solidify my skills to it. so to speak. Mzvega share of CQG Q&A i actually read several times already. Very useful info.

I will try my best to explain it. Any experience MP regulars here pls feel free to add to it...
I know it has taken me forever to acknowledge this very good answer to my question you sent some time ago. I do appreciate the time you took to lay these points out. I have taken note and will continue to put this to practice.

Thank you!
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #3,436
  • Sep 22, 2011 1:01am Sep 22, 2011 1:01am
Quoting mzvega
You ask some of the hardest questions
Alittle bit of both, and it depends. I personally feel that the longer term players(otf) carry more weight than the local traders. I use the longer profile daily/weekly for my direction. If im below value on the higher TF (not skirting the edge of value) that means otf buyers will be looking for a good place to step in and get resopnsive.
This post was very helpful, mzvega. Thank you for sharing!

NeoRio
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #3,437
  • Edited 8:27am Sep 22, 2011 8:23am | Edited 8:27am
Quoting tgwhbb
TP 1 reached overnight, still holding trade, increasing TP to WIBLx1 around 1150 which also coincides with monthly VAL on ES. SL set to BE for now, will re-asses in NY afternoon as I'm now expecting a pullback high to be made then.
trade update. added to my 1st short yesterday on the break of Wednesday's low. both trades now very positive, SL set to +28 on first trade, +1 on 2nd trade. still holding as per comments on chart. SL chosen due to monthly ledge, more agressive SL would be current month VAL, but will wait to see what happens in NY session as it is not even open yet! targets are 1115-1100 (WIBLx2 / lowest daily close on chart), 1080 (august low), and ultimately 1040 area.

EDIT: per last post, the pullback high yesterday was a round 1195 in J period during the news event. This would be the conservative SL location IMO. See 3rd chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2011-09-22 at 9.12.17 AM.png Size: 129 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2011-09-22 at 9.24.46 AM.png Size: 50 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #3,438
  • Sep 22, 2011 9:27am Sep 22, 2011 9:27am
Quoting tgwhbb
trade update. added to my 1st short yesterday on the break of Wednesday's low. both trades now very positive, SL set to +28 on first trade, +1 on 2nd trade. still holding as per comments on chart. SL chosen due to monthly ledge, more agressive SL would be current month VAL, but will wait to see what happens in NY session as it is not even open yet! targets are 1115-1100 (WIBLx2 / lowest daily close on chart), 1080 (august low), and ultimately 1040 area.

EDIT: per last post, the pullback high yesterday was a round 1195 in J period during the news...
Good play good stop loss placement. I am always amazed at how well those WIBx's can often stop price dead in its tracks!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,439
  • Sep 22, 2011 9:33am Sep 22, 2011 9:33am
Quoting NeoRio
Sorry for the tardy reply, I've been on a trip. Just wanted to thank you for the great link to this info. I have enjoyed (and learned a lot) from your posts!

Thank you,
Neo
No problem , you'd be amazed with the amount of resourses & info you can find by reading the thead!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,440
  • Sep 22, 2011 9:48am Sep 22, 2011 9:48am
Quoting MktScape
Thanks for the video .... simple but to the point. I am new to Auction Market Theory and Market Profile ..... going through some James Dalton and Frank Butera material..... look forward to learn from the experienced traders here.

Thanks.
What I found so interesting about that video, is that it was put together by a 14yr old. I followed his trading progress for ahwhile. (call it a "motherly instinct" kind of thing)
We'll be looking forward to your posts!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
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