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  • #1,401
  • Sep 18, 2011 3:22pm Sep 18, 2011 3:22pm
Thanks for the feedback FH! I am just bringing up ideas that I believe would be hellpful. We will see how things develop.

Still love the system!

SirWolf

Quoting forexhard
Wolfie, I think this is a great idea. But rather than replacing the current breakout info lines, I think all we need are some extra lines added to the info chart. That way both types of winning pips are represented. (Check your PM's...)
Believe and Achieve!
  • #1,402
  • Sep 18, 2011 10:16pm Sep 18, 2011 10:16pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Play with numerous number, I found some after looking back for 30 day from master template (see post before as FxH doing) and pick the largest number as my hard pips.....

Should we restart this play after a new month?

Here is some my hard pips :
1. GBP/USD 28 p
2. EUR/USD 34 p
3. USD/CHF 26 p
Hi, FxH....you don't answer my question yet.

Should we restart this play after a new month?
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #1,403
  • Sep 18, 2011 10:26pm Sep 18, 2011 10:26pm
Quoting Brotyboy
RM, I'm surprised you are still sticking with a box size higher than 30 pips for EU. FH has consistently said that around 2.5 czs per week per TF are what he goes for.
Nope.....that is not the problem....you should a little bit smart before judge something....when we push down the p, sometime you don't get it 2.5, FxH use 24 bar....i take no offense then when FxH clearly describes his method with hardpips....The problems is solved.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #1,404
  • Sep 18, 2011 10:30pm Sep 18, 2011 10:30pm
Quoting orderphlow
Down boy, down..

You? Naww, you're a pro man! But maybe some of the people here might benefit from learning about the ACD system, in conjunction with your system, which is another break out system.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/032404.asp#axzz1YJbMeXtI

And 1300 posts ..not a chance! I just look at all the pictures, like I do with all the books I have..

Just adding some insight my friend!
This is ORB method = Opening Range Breakout, not even close to Consolidation as a basic.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #1,405
  • Edited 11:27pm Sep 18, 2011 11:02pm | Edited 11:27pm
Quoting sirwolf
Hi Folks!

This max pip count currently displayed after each break out is the number of pips from the breakout line. I would think it would be more beneficial to show the pip count from the entry signal point, which is where we would be entering. This would give us a better feel for the pip movement for a potential trade.

Anyone else have thoughts on this?

Thanks for listening!

SirWolf
Yes, Sir Wolf, i had the same thought. I feel the benefit when we know how much pips left to grab, even sometime the past do not show the future, the statistics should be right or close to reality (someone said it :domesticated fluctuations around the mean).

This is will make our way to determine how to exit sweetly and grab more pips, and that will increase our percentage to win.

Talk about what we do to exit, what is the way you prefer more :
This is my data from GU, EU, and UC in September until today
1. Fix Take Profit : 1:1 R/R, 16:3 Win Loss, about 630 pips.
2. Fix TP 30 pips : 17:2 Win Loss, about 420 pips.
3. Trailing Stop method : Fail or my head crash...say 100 pips.
4. Your way of this max pips range from potential profit trades to shoot : GU range : 33pips to 78 pips, EU range : 50 pips - to 446 pips, UC 43 pips to 690 pips, I haven't count it yet cause my head will have crash too.....
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #1,406
  • Sep 19, 2011 2:08am Sep 19, 2011 2:08am
Start this week with break of eu & cable ..now wait if both give some pips for us.. Good Luck !!
  • #1,407
  • Sep 19, 2011 2:31am Sep 19, 2011 2:31am
Close cable for 30+ pips and euro 0 pips..that's it for monday..hope u guys got some pips too from this..Good Luck !!
  • #1,408
  • Sep 19, 2011 2:35am Sep 19, 2011 2:35am
Hi Team

I have a potential trade upcoming on GBPJPY. After following FH's setup process this is my highest fixed range pair (33 pip).

This pair tends to range more so I guess this makes sense. Just checking - anyone else with a box range this high on this pair?
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  • #1,409
  • Sep 19, 2011 2:38am Sep 19, 2011 2:38am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Nope.....that is not the problem....you should a little bit smart before judge something....when we push down the p, sometime you don't get it 2.5, FxH use 24 bar....i take no offense then when FxH clearly describes his method with hardpips....The problems is solved.
Interesting to note the difference in reaction to my post between you and FH. Given a choice between your interpretation and FH's I think I'll stick with the OP. And in terms of smarts, I don't think I'm the one with the problem, other than the aforementioned maths issue.
The dream will never die
  • #1,410
  • Sep 19, 2011 2:59am Sep 19, 2011 2:59am
Quoting altec
Hi Team....After following FH's setup process this is my highest fixed range pair (33 pip).....This pair tends to range more so I guess this makes sense. Just checking - anyone else with a box range this high on this pair?
Altec, see the part of the info box that says 25 back boxes that average 5 CZ's per week? Is that the target to be shooting for, 5 per week?

The 25 part is OK, but 5 is not.

When you fix that, you'll automatically be fixing what's "wrong" with your set ups in general.

So instead of 33 pips, try 30 and see that you get. Just keep tweaking until that 5 turns into 3 or less.

There are 3 or 4 settings that can be tweaked to achieve these "perfect" results. It's an excercise in finesse; tweaking just 1 setting isn't the right frame of mind to have as you go hunting for the best sweet spots.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,411
  • Sep 19, 2011 3:09am Sep 19, 2011 3:09am
Quoting andri66
Close cable for 30+ pips and euro 0 pips..that's it for monday..hope u guys got some pips too from this..Good Luck !!
Man, Andri, way to go!!! 30 pips in 30 minutes, and done for the day already.

I hope the rest of you guys are taking notes. This is exactly how everyone should be operating. No "always in" mentality. We are snipers. Plan your trade and trade your plan. Set up, get in, get out, bank those pips, and be ready to do it again.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,412
  • Sep 19, 2011 4:06am Sep 19, 2011 4:06am
Thanks FH ..After trade for several years and blowing my accounts more than 5 times ..Now I just want to keep my account safe and can grow 3 - 5 % /month..( so i'm not into hundred pips/day anymore ..seems too difficult for me )..Good Luck !!
  • #1,413
  • Sep 19, 2011 5:17am Sep 19, 2011 5:17am
Quoting squalou
Hi guys,

here is a new version of the indicator, including more of your suggestions.

- added "MinBarsClosedOutsideBO" input: number of bars to close outside the BO levels to signal trades; 0 means "enter immediately on Breakout"

- added email and alarm options: "SignalMail" and "SignalAlert";

- added cosmetic inputs: "TP_is_pips_above", "BreakoutBoxFontSize", "SwingLabelsFontSize", "BreakoutPriceColor", "BreakoutBoxContPriceColor";

- [b]change: TP levels should be calculated based on the Box itself, NOT...

thanks for the very hard work
  • #1,414
  • Sep 19, 2011 5:30am Sep 19, 2011 5:30am
Quoting forexhard
Altec, see the part of the info box that says 25 back boxes that average 5 CZ's per week? Is that the target to be shooting for, 5 per week?

The 25 part is OK, but 5 is not.

When you fix that, you'll automatically be fixing what's "wrong" with your set ups in general.

So instead of 33 pips, try 30 and see that you get. Just keep tweaking until that 5 turns into 3 or less.

There are 3 or 4 settings that can be tweaked to achieve these "perfect" results. It's an excercise in finesse; tweaking just 1 setting isn't the right frame...
Thanks FH! Will make the adjustment.
  • #1,415
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:44am Sep 19, 2011 6:44am
Quoting RoelsMajor
This is ORB method = Opening Range Breakout, not even close to Consolidation as a basic.
They're all breakouts, if you understood that method, or even this method theoretically, you'd understand the similarity. But that really isn't needed to profit from either method, I guess. More trader cooler talk ..

My apologies for the distractions guys. Good Luck!
  • #1,416
  • Sep 19, 2011 10:25am Sep 19, 2011 10:25am
I would like to see us taking this one step further and working together to calculate the win % and the risk/reward ratios for various entry, take profit and stop loss positions. I also think we should keep it simple and start with GBPUSD and ignore other pairs until we get this cracked.

Looking at FH's data, I think we are close to already having this one sorted out. But it could be better and I believe the weakness is the stop loss positioning.

(and yes, before you say it, I'm well aware that the market is constantly changing and what we see today won't be the same tomorrow. However, I think we can get enough of the basics right here to have a VERY profitable and robust system).

Remember that quoting PIP movements means absolutely nothing without also knowing the above figures. I'm actually getting sick of hearing traders on these forums (actually, all over the bloody web!) harping on about PIPs all the time. It's really important to understand that PIP movements don't indicate anything. They are just a measure of distance. They are utterly and completely meaningless, unless you also quote the win %, R/R figures and exact entry, stop and take profit positions. The only thing of any value when working out whether a trading system is profitable and practical is:

1. What is the probability of the price moving from A (entry) to B (take profit) without going via C (stop loss)?

2. What is the ratio between risk and reward?

If we have those figures over a statistically meaningful time frame, we can calculate expected return on investment. Remember that you don't need large PIP returns to generate a lot of profit. All you need is:

1. A high probability trade

2. A risk to reward value that is compatible with the win percentage (i.e. creates a positive return over time)

3. Good money management and the magic of compound interest

Take $2000, a trading system that gives a 65% win rate and 1:1 risk to reward, and by following the rules to the letter you will be sitting on a couple of million dollars after two or three years. I actually think that this system is close to these figures, or it could be if tweaked just a little.

I'm off on vacation for a week, but I'm going to start wading through the numbers when I get back. As a starting point, if you have been trading GBPUSD successfully using this method and have been taking a profit around 35 PIPs like FH, could you let me know where your initial stop loss is placed and if and when you move it during the trade. Assuming you use a standard 2nd candle entry, we should be able to work back and see what the win % and R/R values are and hence the long term return on investment. We can then tweak things and see if it can be improved.

Cheers & happy trading,

J





Quoting forexhard
Wolfie, I think this is a great idea. But rather than replacing the current breakout info lines, I think all we need are some extra lines added to the info chart. That way both types of winning pips are represented. (Check your PM's...)
  • #1,417
  • Sep 19, 2011 3:02pm Sep 19, 2011 3:02pm
@ PB-

I'm not sure what you're driving at. About the only new thing you brought up was that you wanted a stricter way to gauge your win/loss percentages. Everything else you mentioned has been thoroughly covered. And this new request is very close to what SirWolf has also asked for.

The good news is that Squalou messaged me about 8 hours ago to say that the next release will include the algo you 2 guys are wanting (me too), so that we can see at a glance what our win/loss ratios will be, on the fly so to speak, as we hunt for sweet spots. The system as we know it doesn't change, just that we'll have a much more intuitive look at recent history, which will lead to setting up a tighter TP/SL ratio for the next breakout. Even I don't know what this will look like exactly, but I do know that we are EXTREMELY lucky to have Squalou on board. I'm sure what ever he creates will exceed our wishes or expectations.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,418
  • Sep 19, 2011 3:07pm Sep 19, 2011 3:07pm
Quoting andri66
Close cable for 30+ pips and euro 0 pips..that's it for monday..hope u guys got some pips too from this..Good Luck !!
Hi Andri66

Are you drawing your own boxes or using the sq indi?
  • #1,419
  • Sep 19, 2011 3:25pm Sep 19, 2011 3:25pm
Quoting forexhard
@ PB-

I'm not sure what you're driving at. About the only new thing you brought up was that you wanted a stricter way to gauge your win/loss percentages. Everything else you mentioned has been thoroughly covered. And this new request is very close to what SirWolf has also asked for.

The good news is that Squalou messaged me about 8 hours ago to say that the next release will include the algo you 2 guys are wanting (me too), so that we can see at a glance what our win/loss ratios will be, on the fly so to speak, as we hunt for sweet spots....
That's brilliant news about the indicator. Hats off again to Squalou for his hard work. Can't wait to see what he comes up with.

The main thing I wanted to convey was that % win and R/R ratios are very important and simple PIP movement is meaningless. I see very little of the former and lots of the latter, not just here, but all over the forums. You can't hone a system by looking at PIPs, it has to be % win and R/R.

@FH: I know that you already know that. I'm just not sure everyone here does and wanted to stress the point.

Also, I agree that all the above points have been mentioned sporadically through the thread, but I actually don't see many posts like this:

-----------------------------

GBPUSD, fixed 30 PIP/24 bar box. Standard entry and stop loss. TP fixed 35 PIPs. Win = 62%, R/R average 52:35 for the last 100 days. ROI 26.7%

GBPUSD, fixed 30 PIP/24 bar box. Standard entry, stop loss middle of CZ. TP fixed 35 PIPs. Win = 60%, R/R average 42:35 for the last 100 days. ROI 31.2%

-----------------------------

etc...

(made up figures by the way!)

Isn't that what we are striving for here? I thought the point of the thread was first and foremost to teach the system, and secondly for us to work together to hone, tweak and improve it? If it's only a teaching thread, then sorry if I got the wrong end of the stick - I may be jumping ahead too fast in my excitement :-)

I'd be happy to set up a separate thread for tweaking settings for each pair if that keeps it cleaner for you here.

J
  • #1,420
  • Sep 19, 2011 4:09pm Sep 19, 2011 4:09pm
GBPUSD, fixed 30 PIP/24 bar box. Standard entry and stop loss. TP fixed 35 PIPs. Win = 62%, R/R average 52:35 for the last 100 days. ROI 26.7%

GBPUSD, fixed 30 PIP/24 bar box. Standard entry, stop loss middle of CZ. TP fixed 35 PIPs. Win = 60%, R/R average 42:35 for the last 100 days. ROI 31.2%

PB, 2 things: First, this is a bit beyond what a teaching thread needs. That's the kind of stuff you would find in an indiviudal's trading journal, not a public discussion that a hundred people are taking part in. But (and this brings me to point #2) we just happen to have a licensed funds manager posting here. And so I defer this segment of the discussion over to him. So if Scott sees merit in adding this to the mix of the general teaching thread, I will definitely look into it. So, Scott, what's your take?
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
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