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  • #1,361
  • Sep 16, 2011 4:13am Sep 16, 2011 4:13am
Took the short signal on Cable. Set a conservative TP around 27 PIPs and a SL on the other side of the CZ. Came within 6 PIPs of target then reversed (walked away and let this run). I'll leave it and see how it pans out.

I'm using a fixed 22 bar/30 PIP fixed box with a 7 PIP buffer on cable. Any thoughts on that?

J
Attached Image
  • #1,362
  • Sep 16, 2011 4:49am Sep 16, 2011 4:49am
Pretty Close to Lose.....

http://i600.photobucket.com/albums/t...osetoalose.jpg
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #1,363
  • Sep 16, 2011 4:59am Sep 16, 2011 4:59am
@ pixel boy..interesting topic (so i want to share before watch movie )..I think loss with every system always happen ..So there's only few choice :
1. Follow the system 100 % and accept losses.
2. Trade only 1 or 2 pairs to better understand their behaviour.
3. Place plan B if trading goes aginst us (like Mer with another position at the other side of CZ).
4. Combine your system with other like Price Action , longer TF , etc..
5. Always take your profit when you win , most guys try to follow the R/R ,but for me it's better to play safe & very careful before Open Position.
Just my 2 cents anyway..hope you can find better way to minimize losses..
* for those that still short cable,your sl might already hit ( if it place at the other side of CZ )..but the win from previous days still more than this loss ,right ?
Good Luck !
  • #1,364
  • Sep 16, 2011 5:42am Sep 16, 2011 5:42am
Quoting coxsox
I prefer to use FH's method of waiting for 2 candles to close outside the range to confirm the momentum of trade direction rather than a buffer, if thats what you mean ? Does this buffer work better for you? thanks
Yeah that's the same thing. 2 closes outside the buffer line to confirm.
  • #1,365
  • Sep 16, 2011 5:46am Sep 16, 2011 5:46am
Had a quick look through the last month's asian sessions for this pair and I don't see this price drift and reverse happening a whole lot - at least not clearly over the last 30 days. So I think the lesson learned is it's the indecisive price action near the the entry line that's the warning sign.

J



Quoting pixelboy
Other thoughts on this morning's trading…

The price spent over ten hours slowly drifting up to the top of the CZ before the entry signal. There was very little sign of a big momentum push, to suggest something breaking out.

The momentum came with the big bearish candle (07:30 GMT). The trade should probably have been manually closed out as that candle closed inside the CZ, or when the next one opened and closed inside.

Is this something other people have observed? Is this a common pattern? Is it a familiar pattern for the Yen pairs? I.e....
  • #1,366
  • Sep 16, 2011 5:55am Sep 16, 2011 5:55am
Cable hit the stop for -45 PIPs.

Had a look through some recent CZs on Cable and I'm starting to think that having the stop on the other side of the CZ is way too much. I ran a very rough eyeball-and-back-of-envelope back-test taking the first two signals off a CZ (i.e. if the first signal loses, take another, but only a maximum of two, then wait for another CZ) on Cable for July.

A fixed TP of 40 PIPs with the SL on the closest side of the CZ returned around 220 PIPs in July.

A fixed TP of 40 PIPs with the SL on the break line (i.e very close to the entry) returned around 300 PIPs in July.

Obviously a very small sample and very much determined by the indicator settings (mine were on 22 bars, Auto, ADR 100 days, 0.2, giving 2.8 per week), but definitely something to optimise if anyone is good at back-testing.

Fixed 30 and 40 pip targets with the stop at the other side of the CZ returned much less (close to zero for 40 and a negative return on 30 TP levels).

J



Quoting pixelboy
Took the short signal on Cable. Set a conservative TP around 27 PIPs and a SL on the other side of the CZ. Came within 6 PIPs of target then reversed (walked away and let this run). I'll leave it and see how it pans out.

I'm using a fixed 22 bar/30 PIP fixed box with a 7 PIP buffer on cable. Any thoughts on that?

J
  • #1,367
  • Sep 16, 2011 7:49am Sep 16, 2011 7:49am
Hi Andri - Regarding your points…

1. I find relatively mechanical trading quite appealing as it removes the emotion that usually ends up costing PIPs. The clarity of the entries is one of the things that attracts me to this system, so following 100% would be good, as long as the TP and stops are set properly, and for me I don't think they are.

2. I think that's a really good idea. I've already cut down from 8 to 6. Think I'll chop this to 4, then maybe 2 (I like even numbers - fit on the screen better!)

3. I'd like to devise a sensible reverse trade strategy for this (obviously outside of this thread) as I see some many opportunities for reverse trades. I'd appreciate any information about reverse trade strategies to counter losses on the breakouts. PM please to keep the thread clean.

I'll look at what Mer does - thanks for the heads-up.

4. Would rather hone one system than trying to combine.

5. I agree - that's generally what I would do, but I've been trying to follow this to the letter to test it.

Lots of lessons learned just over the past week.

J




Quoting andri66
@ pixel boy..interesting topic (so i want to share before watch movie )..I think loss with every system always happen ..So there's only few choice :
1. Follow the system 100 % and accept losses.
2. Trade only 1 or 2 pairs to better understand their behaviour.
3. Place plan B if trading goes aginst us (like Mer with another position at the other side of CZ).
4. Combine your system with other like Price Action , longer TF , etc..
5. Always take your profit when you win , most guys try to follow the R/R ,but for me it's better to play safe &...
  • #1,368
  • Sep 16, 2011 8:38am Sep 16, 2011 8:38am
MER was right - On EURJPY - I would have taken that

SELL ALL DAY LONG

But I was asleep

FX Hard - apologies - I must post my 60 minute eSignal Cart

WHY - WHY - WHY

Would anybody be trading EUR for the Last Several Days

OK - I am frustrated, also - BUT WE ARE PAID TO WAIT

Thanks to FOREX HARD AND MER AND SQUALOU

Back to my Cave

Bryan
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  • #1,369
  • Sep 16, 2011 9:27am Sep 16, 2011 9:27am
Took some profits here good trade.


Anderson
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  • #1,370
  • Sep 16, 2011 9:28am Sep 16, 2011 9:28am
FOREX HARD - PLEASE FORGIVE ME ONCE MORE - THEN I WILL SHUT UP


WHAT IS YOUR PERSONALITY

I bought eSignal ADVANCE GET - $ 2,995.00 - Thinking it would make me

a "Great Trader" - I was Wrong.

I Studied ALAN ANDREWS and TIM MORGE - I met Tim in Las Vegas

If you got a look at my real charts - Daily - 240 - 60 - you would see

ANDREWS PITCHFORKS - showing the "path of price" per TIM

I AM A - SR TRADER - A BREAK OUT TRADER

IT SUITS WHO I AM

THANKS TO FOREX HARD - I SEE THAT "CLEARLY"

Good weekend to all

Bryan
  • #1,371
  • Edited 11:53pm Sep 16, 2011 9:44am | Edited 11:53pm
Swissy
May be the last pair still struggling tonight (at my country)...the best pair....if the price hit the TP....it would be a legendary trade....just follow the leader.

http://i600.photobucket.com/albums/t...wtheleader.jpg
Note : Two super consecutive CZ's would make price arc (I hope so).....
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #1,372
  • Edited 10:45pm Sep 16, 2011 9:58pm | Edited 10:45pm
Using just the Squalou indicator and no other filtering, here is the rough pip count tally of the last 4 weeks. Two numbers separated by a "/" sign means there was a reversal later on the same day. Any number 35 or higher I consider an automatic money maker, and they are highlighted in bold. Any single day with a count of less than 35 would be considered a loss (although this rule would probably not apply to extreme scalpers). This is for the G/U M15 chart only:

28/14
88
20/104
8/85
57
145
127
10/50
91
45
86
82
160
73
17/109
124
15/66
57
29/23

Worth noting is that there were only 2 totally lost days (red) due to low volatility, and that they both happened at the same time of the month, relatively speaking. Every single day in between had a breakout of 35 pips or more.

The only way you could have lost money over the last 30 days with my system is if you had only bet tiny amounts on the good days, and then bet the farm on the only 2 bad ones.

If anyone has anything negative to say about this system and why it's not worth using, please speak up. I'd love to hear your views. No joke, I really would.
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To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,373
  • Sep 16, 2011 10:39pm Sep 16, 2011 10:39pm
This system looks similar to Mark Fishers ACD system, his book is a great read if anyone hasn't heard of him, or the book.


http://www.amazon.com/Logical-Trader-Mark-B-Fisher/dp/0471215511

Might add some insight to what's already going on here.

Cheers!
  • #1,374
  • Sep 16, 2011 10:43pm Sep 16, 2011 10:43pm
Quoting orderphlow
This system looks similar to Mark Fishers ACD system, his book is a great read if anyone hasn't heard of him, or the book.


http://www.amazon.com/Logical-Trader-Mark-B-Fisher/dp/0471215511

Might add some insight to what's already going on here.

Cheers!
You read over 1300 posts just to tell me this? Sure you did.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,375
  • Edited Sep 17, 2011 12:17am Sep 16, 2011 11:51pm | Edited Sep 17, 2011 12:17am
I have adjust the colour of BreakoutBoxContPriceColour to "none" and adjust BoxBufferPips to "3".....

Will place SL then at the opposite buffer lines.....would have i adjusted it yesterday, my first CZ's (from 2 consecutive CZ's) will give the long successfull signal.....

http://i600.photobucket.com/albums/t...r/Adjusted.jpg

My Question here is : How do we trade the 2 consecutive CZ's?....I prefer to take the first one signal and wait until it closed, if the second one give a signal after the first one closed and still reliable, i would take it.

http://i600.photobucket.com/albums/t...ndreliable.jpg

Screenshot No2 from USD-CHF September 15, the second signal would be to late to open but still good after price bounching back to the signal price....

Note : My cable, after adjust would have a winning trade too instead a lost....And one request to Squalou (pardon me if i ask too much : Can we just have an arrow (the first signal only) that will show per CZ's? I feel so noisy and there wouldn't be over trading anymore on this system. Thank U.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #1,376
  • Sep 17, 2011 1:15am Sep 17, 2011 1:15am
RoelsMajor, again you make me say this: YOUR BOXES ARE TOO BIG. 34 pips is too tall. When you finally adjust the SIZE OF YOUR BOXES you will see that the other adjustments you are talking about will not be necessary. Not only that, but you will have many fewer CZ's showing, so your question about overlapping boxes will go away as well. When your settings are as tight as mine, overlapping boxes are much less common.

How many times must I say this: The shorter the CZ, and the longer the CZ, the better the breakout will be. Looking at past trades and telling yourself, "If only I had made this adjustment... or this one... my losers would have been winners" WILL NEVER MAKE SENSE IF THE CZ's ARE THE WRONG CONFIGURATION.

This system doesn't have very many rules, but keeping the CZ to 30 pips or less is one of them. It is a foundational rule. A rule that we build upon. If you break this rule, then every other setting you use will never work as expected.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,377
  • Edited 8:32am Sep 17, 2011 2:11am | Edited 8:32am
Quoting forexhard
RoelsMajor, again you make me say this: YOUR BOXES ARE TOO BIG. 34 pips is too tall. When you finally adjust the SIZE OF YOUR BOXES you will see that the other adjustments you are talking about will not be necessary. Not only that, but you will have many fewer CZ's showing, so your question about overlapping boxes will go away as well. When your settings are as tight as mine, overlapping boxes are much less common.

How many times must I say this: The shorter the CZ, and the longer the CZ, the better the breakout will be. Looking at...
Thanks for remind me about the foundational rule.....but i know the consequences FxH..... i am trying to experience the way that keep make me comfort to trade....than i am looking my way to fix phrase "never work as expected" by trial and error to gain more knowledge....

This is not just unordinary way to learn and i am not just ordinary guy...
After all, No Hard Feeling....

Note : Increase Volatility.....Auto Increase BoxSize with AutoBox.....(= How many time should we change the setting until box = or below 30). Is not about the shorter or longer box. Is just about how many pips the candle will crossing the line after the breakout occur and how many pips that possible you can gain after....."the better the breakout will be," I think we will never know.

http://i600.photobucket.com/albums/t...Volatility.jpg
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #1,378
  • Sep 17, 2011 10:05am Sep 17, 2011 10:05am
RM, You are not asking anything new. Your questions are old ones, and they have already been answered 10 times each somewhere in the thread.

Again, this system has only a few basic rules, and each of them are extremely important because there are so few rules in the first place. Break one, and the rest no longer do their job, either.

If you are going to continue challenging me in this way, then I will have to ask you to stop posting your charts in here. Maybe a better place would be to open your own Trading Journal. In here I expect everyone's charts to look the same, or very close to it. This is a teaching thread. We need to have uniformity in here, or else the system will no longer make sense, it will stop functioning as it should, and we will start having unnecessary losses.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,379
  • Edited 2:42pm Sep 17, 2011 1:49pm | Edited 2:42pm
FH, I have been looking at the difference in the ADR settings for GJ and UJ between 30 ADR and 100 ADR...in other pairs we get less cz's when set to 100. Which is of course what we want. But in the GJ and UJ I get less CZ's when set to 30...Don't know why this is and hoping you can shed some light?
Thanks......
Think Outside the Box.....
  • #1,380
  • Sep 17, 2011 2:51pm Sep 17, 2011 2:51pm
Quoting e-trader
FH, I have been looking at the difference in the ADR settings for GJ and UJ between 30 ADR and 100 ADR....hoping you can shed some light?....
Here are the steps I use to setting up my charts:

First, I only trade using a hard pip value (ADR=False), but I use the ADR for finding that hard value as I set up my individual templates.

1. 24 bars/0/0/ADR=True=100/.2. Recommended for M15 charts. For other TF's, the bold settings need to be adjusted.

2. Make a standardized master template with the above settings which can then be dropped onto any M15 pairing.

3. This master template will immediately show the average height of the CZ's found on that chart. Simply look for the values painted under each CZ. Say the numbers for the last few CZ's are 27/31/29/29/30/33. So it's easy to see that 30 is a good height to go with. Maybe even 28 or 29 if you want to go for a tighter (better quality) CZ. If the values are more like 12/12/15/11/12/13, then 12 would be my hard pip setting for that pair -- and this is basically what I see when I test U/J this way.

4. Once you have made this master test, simply change this value: "0" to: 12 (or 30, or what ever), and switch the ADR to False. Your template is exactly the same as before, except that now you are finding CZ's based on a hard pip value.

5. Save this new template with the pair name. Now you have the original master template, plus one for the specific pair. The whole operation took less than 2 minutes.

I have about a dozen customized templates made exactly this way, which allow me to trade with a hard pip value for any pair and any time frame I am comfortable with.

For smaller time frames I recommend adding more bars (e.g., 30 or 40 instead of 24), and less for higher TF's.

Note: In all of my testing I have only seen 2 pairings where the CZ ought to be bigger than 30 pips high. One is XAU/USD, and the other is a regular pairing, which I have set to 40. Otherise, it's always 30 pips or less. (Haven't tested Silver or other metals, etc.) But no matter what, it's the ADR for testing, and the hard pips for trading.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
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