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  • #1,241
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:49pm Sep 6, 2011 3:49pm
Today the market feared the worst on the US stock markets. Early on the markets didnt dissapoint th dow30 was down over 300 at its low. From then on it worked its way higher to close down 100.

In elliottwave speak we have started a wave 5 down which should take the markets to new lows. This started @2260 area and should go below 1980.

A classic wave 5 is an inpulse wave that subdivides into 5 component waves.

 

  1. an initial downmove (wave1)
  2. a shallow upmove (wave2) usually a 38.2% - 68% retracement of wave 1
  3. a much stronger down move (wave3)
  4. another retracement
  5. a final downmove to complete the whole downmove

on this hourly chart
We have had a strong downmove and are curently at 38.2% retracement. we have to all to 2200 area for the strong downmove to begin
Let us watch this one. BTW I am not an EW practitioner so all the above need personal d/d

OLu

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nasdaq100-1H-06092011-2120uk.jpg Size: 87 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,242
  • Sep 7, 2011 9:07pm Sep 7, 2011 9:07pm
Nice channel set up on this product.

How would you play this BBO ?





golfer
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  • #1,243
  • Sep 8, 2011 6:49pm Sep 8, 2011 6:49pm
Guys here is the eurusd with a trend line on it. A very significant one at that. Check it out.

Stoch (weekly) has turned down
Price action is showing bearish tendencies
Trend line has been touched
Fundamentally the euro has serious problems
The stock market is weak - bearish for the euro

Now we might bounce off this trendline but I think the writing is on the wall.

Wait for the market to show its hand and then trade accordingly. This could be a 'sell and hold'

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,244
  • Edited 7:00pm Sep 8, 2011 6:57pm | Edited 7:00pm
Quoting golferfx
Nice channel set up on this product.

How would you play this BBO ?

golfer
Once again you tease with this juicy chart. We are clearly in an horizontal channel. The channel is well formed - no guessing where the top or bottom limits should be drawn

The best way to trade this is to wait for a breakout and then go with that breakout.

Now I would be lying if I wasnt tempted to stick stochs on the chart and see whether a sell is on order looking for the lower channel line. But my first choice is the former trade.

Now pull the curtains back and reveal the instrument.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,245
  • Sep 9, 2011 11:13am Sep 9, 2011 11:13am
Check out the monthly SP500. Let's hope the head and shoulder doesnt confirm...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,246
  • Sep 10, 2011 5:49pm Sep 10, 2011 5:49pm
We have to entertain the idea that we are entering into a phase of dollar strength. Find uploaded a daily and a weekly chart of the usdcad

on the weekly we are showing a clear double bottom price action. price is above the 50ema on both charts and we are closing on a breakout to the upside

Olu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad-daily-10092011.jpg Size: 104 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad-weekly-10092011.jpg Size: 42 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,247
  • Sep 13, 2011 7:22am Sep 13, 2011 7:22am
Plase find uploaded a weekly chart of the eurusd. You will observe that there are no indicators other than the 100ema. Sometimes it is good to just go with the raw price rather than a derivative of the real thing.

There is a pattern in the price action of the euro over the many weeks shown on the chart. Price goes up, breaks the trendline and price goes down hard. Right now price has just broken downtrend line on a weekly basis and if previous patterns are correct we will be visiting 1.20xx area!

Please note that this analysis is based onb a weekly chart - really suitable for the 9 - 5 trader. A lot can happen between one weekly bar so bear that in mind.

The stock market is rallying today (or at least attempting to) so I expect some retracement in the eurusd. I believe that 1.38xx area might be the target. Max 1.4000. Then the climatic fall

Your own d/d is necessary.

Olu
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-weekly-12092011-1311uk.JPG Size: 53 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,248
  • Sep 16, 2011 11:39am Sep 16, 2011 11:39am
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  • #1,249
  • Sep 18, 2011 6:30pm Sep 18, 2011 6:30pm
ideal location to be an island trader from...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,250
  • Sep 18, 2011 6:37pm Sep 18, 2011 6:37pm
The markets have opened with gap weaknesses inthe stock markets. The euro, pound, aussie all weaker against the us dollar. Some retracement has started to happen. Will all the gaps be closed?

I am standing aside for a while...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,251
  • Sep 19, 2011 7:56am Sep 19, 2011 7:56am
usdcad.

A confirmed long trade might lead to a genuine breakout above 1.0000

Price is above the 100sma
Price bounced off the .9800 area many times
stoch is oversold -attempting to turn (hence the need to wait for confirmation)

Your own d/d is needed. Spoke to a friend and he was adamant it was a sell!. The long and short of it is that its your own trading account

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,252
  • Sep 19, 2011 9:29am Sep 19, 2011 9:29am
Quoting Olu
usdcad.

A confirmed long trade might lead to a genuine breakout above 1.0000

Price is above the 100sma
Price bounced off the .9800 area many times
stoch is oversold -attempting to turn (hence the need to wait for confirmation)

Your own d/d is needed. Spoke to a friend and he was adamant it was a sell!. The long and short of it is that its your own trading account

Olu
Gone long...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,253
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:46pm Sep 19, 2011 6:46pm
Check out the monthly chart of the eurgbp. (Note it is a monthly chart).

Price is respecting the trendline but attempting to breakdown
stochastics have turned down confirming momentum is to the downside

A break of the trendline may keep us going down for months...
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,254
  • Sep 21, 2011 7:40am Sep 21, 2011 7:40am
Quoting Olu
Gone long...

Olu
closed out the usdcad long for a good profit due to announcement risk. Will look to re-enter long on a close above 1.0000

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,255
  • Sep 24, 2011 11:12am Sep 24, 2011 11:12am
Find uploaded a chart of Sugar the commodity - the march contract

A clear M pattern has been activated and the first target is the recent lows as shown on the chart. We might be going even lower ultimately hence the use of the march contract

If we smell anywhere near the breakdown line (a little retracement) it will be a good sell. By the way a good friend of mine says a retracement cannot be banked on to happen all the time and good trades are sometimes lost because of this expectation. Just trade and manage the trade well

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MarchSugar-Daily-24092011.jpg Size: 59 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,256
  • Sep 24, 2011 11:29am Sep 24, 2011 11:29am
Quoting Olu
Find uploaded a chart of Sugar the commodity - the march contract

A clear M pattern has been activated and the first target is the recent lows as shown on the chart. We might be going even lower ultimately hence the use of the march contract

If we smell anywhere near the breakdown line (a little retracement) it will be a good sell. By the way a good friend of mine says a retracement cannot be banked on to happen all the time and good trades are sometimes lost because of this expectation. Just trade and manage the trade well

Olu
i can tell you exactly where this is going, through supply and demand, and that "m" formation is caused by supply and demand
  • #1,257
  • Sep 24, 2011 11:38am Sep 24, 2011 11:38am
Now you see, i could have profited on every move here way before this M formation occured, if you open your eyes to the obvious its all so easy to see!!

http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/7...ly24092011.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
  • #1,258
  • Sep 24, 2011 12:15pm Sep 24, 2011 12:15pm
Quoting deankenny21
Now you see, i could have profited on every move here way before this M formation occured, if you open your eyes to the obvious its all so easy to see!!

http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/7...ly24092011.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Thanks for contributing to this thread

You are right DK. When you put it like that there has been a lot of opportunities. There has also been a lot of places to add to trades too. I am not very good with dancing in and out of trades and tend to trade established moves. Pls keep on posting your ideas.

Wish us all loads of pips (points!)

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,259
  • Sep 24, 2011 12:16pm Sep 24, 2011 12:16pm
Quoting Olu
Thanks for contributing to this thread

You are right DK. When you put it like that there has been a lot of opportunities. There has also been a lot of places to add to trades too. I am not very good with dancing in and out of trades and tend to trade established moves. Pls keep on posting your ideas.

Wish us all loads of pips (points!)

Olu
No problem dude, when you open your eyes to the obvious its so clear, i that was hindsight, but ive already proved this LIVE in my room with ppl looking at my desktop showing them the area for the next move. So although this is hindsight i know full damn well this wouldve worked before the event
  • #1,260
  • Sep 26, 2011 4:51pm Sep 26, 2011 4:51pm
Took a countertrend trade in the above pair. please not that the true trend is up and the trade might not last long. This trade is just till I find a good spot to get long

Olu
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