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  • #1,741
  • Sep 15, 2011 1:31am Sep 15, 2011 1:31am
Hi Tom,

You tweeted that you're looking for rounded retest and long on EURJPY at 105.86.

But I'm seeing a spider and a level at 105.52?

Would appreciate your comments!

Rob
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  • #1,742
  • Sep 15, 2011 4:31am Sep 15, 2011 4:31am
Quoting Gt3rs
Hi Tom,

You tweeted that you're looking for rounded retest and long on EURJPY at 105.86.

But I'm seeing a spider and a level at 105.52?

Would appreciate your comments!

Rob
Rob, I understand that trade to be as follows:

  1. the 105.52 level is resistance, therefore you want to play a rounded retest when it flips to support. So wait for it to break through that level, and then come back to retest it for the long.
  2. the only reason I can see for Tom choosing the higher 105.86 level may be because it was the start of the gap down.

Grant

“Make everything as simple as possible, but no simpler.” – Albert Einstein
  • #1,743
  • Sep 15, 2011 5:19am Sep 15, 2011 5:19am
Yes Grant, thanks. That's exactly what I am looking at. Breakthrough and rounded retest of that level.

But Tom has his higher, as you said...
  • #1,744
  • Sep 15, 2011 7:17am Sep 15, 2011 7:17am
Quoting gc7
Rob, I understand that trade to be as follows:

  1. the 105.52 level is resistance, therefore you want to play a rounded retest when it flips to support. So wait for it to break through that level, and then come back to retest it for the long.
  2. the only reason I can see for Tom choosing the higher 105.86 level may be because it was the start of the gap down.

Grant

The gap probably has something to do with it knowing Tom but I have my level the same as his. Just about everything Tom does is geared toward either preventing false breakouts or spotting one and utilizing it.

His level on the EJ looks to be the mean avg of the highs as he talks about if not a bit higher. The higher or lower your level is....or closest to the highest high or lowest low helps to prevent taking false breakouts and the rounded retest with distance is the confirmation that it was indeed a breakout that has come back. The caveat with putting ur level more toward the extremes is that u may take a little more heat on the retest but also gives you a better shot at your order being filled. In short, I look for the mean avg and error slightly above (for long retest) or below it (for short).

The Swing Failure Pattern is the opposite, it uses a false breakout to either go the other way or give a strong bias.
  • #1,745
  • Edited 9:43am Sep 15, 2011 9:02am | Edited 9:43am
Any comments on this position? Still working .


Update - Closed this position for a profit at 1777.
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  • #1,746
  • Sep 15, 2011 12:31pm Sep 15, 2011 12:31pm
Hey guys,

I see a lot of debate over what was going on at 105.86 in the EURJPY. The short answer is nothing, it was a typo!

I'm sorry - as you all noted, the level was at 52's.

That setup was, again, beautiful.
  • #1,747
  • Sep 15, 2011 12:52pm Sep 15, 2011 12:52pm
Some levels on stocks. There are so many more of this kind right now, but here is a few.

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Attached Image


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pat
  • #1,748
  • Sep 15, 2011 3:16pm Sep 15, 2011 3:16pm
I,ll swing the bat at this one.
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  • #1,749
  • Edited Sep 16, 2011 12:19am Sep 15, 2011 9:54pm | Edited Sep 16, 2011 12:19am
Quoting the_wizard
Hey guys,

I see a lot of debate over what was going on at 105.86 inhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif the EURJPY. The short answer is nothing, it was a typo!

I'm sorry - as you all noted, the level was at 52's.

That setup was, again, beautiful.
That EJ rounded retest is not what I would have thought to be an acceptable shape. It was only two or three bars on H1. I know the space, time, number of bars thingy is subjective, but I always thought there would be more time involved before the retest.

Although this was not technically a butt-kiss trade, to me it looked closely related to a jarroo PBT&CA type trade. I guess this type of agility and flexibility will come with more experience.
Tom, thanks for posting all these levels/trades. It really helps us fine tune our understanding.

Grant
“Make everything as simple as possible, but no simpler.” – Albert Einstein
  • #1,750
  • Sep 16, 2011 1:09am Sep 16, 2011 1:09am
Quoting gc7
That EJ rounded retest is not what I would have thought to be an acceptable shape. It was only two or three bars on H1. I know the space, time, number of bars thingy is subjective, but I always thought there would be more time involved before the retest.

Although this was not technically a butt-kiss trade, to me it looked closely related to a jarroo PBT&CA type trade. I guess this type of agility and flexibility will come with more experience.
Tom, thanks for posting all these levels/trades. It really helps us fine tune our understanding....
Hi Grant,

You are right, normally I wouldn't touch this shape retest with a bargepole BUT I was extremely bullish for a number of reasons

1) D1 SFP of all time low

2) D1 pin bar

3) After the D1 pin comes 2 D1 IBs that show long lower wicks and demand coming in

4) A drop down to the H1 shows a clear "spider formation" - higher lows and a clear resistance that had been hit multiple times

5) When we broke through the level you will note (this might be feed dependent) we posted an H1 bullish engulfing. I bought as soon as I saw this on the first dip.
  • #1,751
  • Sep 16, 2011 1:27am Sep 16, 2011 1:27am
Quoting the_wizard
Hi Grant,

You are right, normally I wouldn't touch this shape retest with a bargepole BUT I was extremely bullish for a number of reasons ...
Thanks Tom,
A really good example of putting the whole story together, as opposed to mechanically waiting for the typical rounded retest shape. As a result I missed this one, but won't be so myopic next time.

Grant
“Make everything as simple as possible, but no simpler.” – Albert Einstein
  • #1,752
  • Sep 16, 2011 4:01am Sep 16, 2011 4:01am
I am watching the 1.331 - 1.33000 area on EUR/AUD

Last resistance
ATR

http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/3941/47322607.png
  • #1,753
  • Sep 16, 2011 4:30am Sep 16, 2011 4:30am
Quoting the_wizard
Hi Grant,

You are right, normally I wouldn't touch this shape retest with a bargepole BUT I was extremely bullish for a number of reasons...
Agreed Tom, this had a great story behind it.

Looks like price is going to retest the former resistance level (Taking out the daily PB traders, for those who stop at Break Even right? ). Anyway, do you think the former resistance level is tradable again as a rounded retest? 105.40 - 105.50 area?

Thanks T
  • #1,754
  • Edited Sep 17, 2011 1:08am Sep 16, 2011 8:05am | Edited Sep 17, 2011 1:08am
Thoughts ?
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  • #1,755
  • Sep 16, 2011 9:33am Sep 16, 2011 9:33am
Quoting cprao
Thoughts ?
That's Ucad but I like it, watch for it to possibly turn around 9800 tho.
  • #1,756
  • Sep 16, 2011 10:28am Sep 16, 2011 10:28am
Quoting Cze
I am watching the 1.331 - 1.33000 area on EUR/AUD

Last resistance
ATR
Out for -7 Pips. That's -0,15R

Now its moving higher but I prefer to take a small loss rather then hoping it will go up when it already blew through my level and didnt give a nice bounce.

Comments? Premature action?
  • #1,757
  • Sep 16, 2011 10:38am Sep 16, 2011 10:38am
A bit late in the day but a good set-up possibly.
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  • #1,758
  • Sep 16, 2011 4:29pm Sep 16, 2011 4:29pm
Quoting 5.25
Agreed Tom, this had a great story behind it.

Looks like price is going to retest the former resistance level (Taking out the daily PB traders, for those who stop at Break Even right? ). Anyway, do you think the former resistance level is tradable again as a rounded retest? 105.40 - 105.50 area?

Thanks T
Barely missed the rounded retest.
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  • #1,759
  • Sep 16, 2011 4:59pm Sep 16, 2011 4:59pm
Today I was short EJ since 105.70 and then I saw your formation and I was like, "oh shit" at the end was a little stop loss. But the way VSA confirmed the long at 105.50, I better react faster next time
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #1,760
  • Sep 17, 2011 1:09am Sep 17, 2011 1:09am
Quoting daft
That's Ucad but I like it, watch for it to possibly turn around 9800 tho.
YES. it is usdcad. I messed it up.
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