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Flag trading the trend

  • #5,141
  • Sep 16, 2011 1:32am Sep 16, 2011 1:32am
Quoting phneutral
Thanks for your words Clive.

Those charts look really great. Have you traded those subs?

Could you pass me that template for me to try?

Thanks and see you tomorrow!
PH
Sorry but I use FXCM's marketscope charting package so don't have a template for Meta Trader4 for you. However just use the "pullback finder" posted on this thread and use the setting of 8 for the 1 min CCI and 120 (8x15) for the 15min CCI.

Hope that helps and unfortunately I didn't catch all those subs posted, but I will be trading them today so lets see what happens.

Happy flag waving
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #5,142
  • Sep 16, 2011 2:37am Sep 16, 2011 2:37am
Well thats an interesting start to the London open?

Is the 15min chart turning over? Is it in an uptrend or a down trend? Not too sure whether to be looking for selling or buying opportunities?

Looking at my 15 min chart it posted a LH (1.3878) at 06.15 and the move down that followed has just taken out the 15 mins last HL at 1.3835 so are we now looking at a down trend on the 15 min?

If so then are we now looking for selling opportunities? I suppose what I should do is wait to see if the move down is confirmed with a LH on the 15 min then I would know for sure.

What's everyone else looking for?

Anyone got any thoughts they want to share?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15 min last HL taken out.jpg Size: 148 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #5,143
  • Sep 16, 2011 2:58am Sep 16, 2011 2:58am
I think is to look for shorts since last last HL was taken.

PS: Good Morning
  • #5,144
  • Sep 16, 2011 3:03am Sep 16, 2011 3:03am
First trade of the day. Stop is BE at this point.

Edit: Target achieved, +15
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8.jpg Size: 720 KB
  • #5,145
  • Sep 16, 2011 3:10am Sep 16, 2011 3:10am
Trade #1

I think I entered a little earlier than you, PH. My entry was at 09.52 CET (0852 London) & it looks like you entered 8 mins later (& I think just hit target depending on your spread, which presumably is very tight at Oanda) ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9 16 2011 T1.GIF Size: 43 KB
  • #5,146
  • Sep 16, 2011 3:11am Sep 16, 2011 3:11am
Quoting jtrade
Trade #1

I think I entered a little earlier than you, PH. My entry was at 09.52 CET (0852 London) & it looks like you entered 8 mins later (& I think just hit target depending on your spread, which presumably is very tight at Oanda) ?
Good trade. Yes is 1.2 now in oanda.
  • #5,147
  • Sep 16, 2011 3:27am Sep 16, 2011 3:27am
I was thinking again this morning about Divergence's own trading and his exceptional win rate : I just can't help noticing that his charts, in accordance with the method he describes on this thread, are very, very simple.

I also note my own tendency, which I see in others (btw, thanks for sharing, Clive), to add to / modify successful methods. On the one hand, this could be a natural evolution and / or "making a method one's own" - Divergence's own rules have indeed evolved during the life of this thread (and very much since I first "met" him some years ago).

So as you can see I've simplified my chart today : I've still got my Daily Pivots (hard for a futures trader not to have those) & my 89 EMA, but I think that's all I need (plus the M15 chart for a higher level trend view).

To net on average just one positive trade a day really adds up if you start to trade reasonable size ...
  • #5,148
  • Sep 16, 2011 3:49am Sep 16, 2011 3:49am
I'm staying out of this one cause we have support at 81. To me, this level should be cleared before other short trades.
  • #5,149
  • Sep 16, 2011 3:57am Sep 16, 2011 3:57am
Quoting jtrade
I was thinking again this morning about Divergence's own trading and his exceptional win rate : I just can't help noticing that his charts, in accordance with the method he describes on this thread, are very, very simple.

I also note my own tendency, which I see in others (btw, thanks for sharing, Clive), to add to / modify successful methods. On the one hand, this could be a natural evolution and / or "making a method one's own" - Divergence's own rules have indeed evolved during the life of this thread (and very much since I first...
For now I'm just trading the rules without any kind of indicators. But I think a larger period MA is welcome to the charts as it helps to clarify general direction.

I also watch the harmonics only to see if there's no contrarian pattern to my trade.

If it proves itself a high reliability method, i will put 5% in each trade. And like u said, at least 1 trade a day is enough although we know that can be 3 or 4. Capital must be adjusted in every trade.
  • #5,150
  • Sep 16, 2011 4:04am Sep 16, 2011 4:04am
Quoting phneutral
I think is to look for shorts since last last HL was taken.

PS: Good Morning
Top of the morning to you to my good friend

Well yes I agree we should be looking for sells especially as all the timeframes from Daily right down to the 1 min are all below the 200ema.

So I am waiting for the 15 min CCI to give me a solid pullback then away we go.

Just have one BIG concern when selling EURUSD as it will probably pull the EURCHF down with it and as we know our CHF friends don't like that below 1.2000 so expect a big push up there. Therefore just keep an eye on the eurchf and if its getting too close to 1.2000 watch out!!!!

For my part I'm also keeping a close eye on GBPJPY as it too is below the 200ema on all timeframes so looks good to short to me.

See you later Clive
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #5,151
  • Edited 4:50am Sep 16, 2011 4:38am | Edited 4:50am
This one works great by that method Clive. ( but didn't took it )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.jpg Size: 110 KB
  • #5,152
  • Sep 16, 2011 4:45am Sep 16, 2011 4:45am
Need the sessions indicator for MT4, the one that paints the session background in other color.

Anyone have it?

Edit: Forget, found it.
  • #5,153
  • Sep 16, 2011 5:07am Sep 16, 2011 5:07am
Quoting phneutral
This one works great by that method Clive. ( but didn't took it )
Got that one and by the way it was up against the 200ema too!

I'm waiting now for next time slot when New York comes on line. Find it goes a bit slow for the next couple of hours.

Of course now I've said that watch it fall off the page!!!!
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #5,154
  • Sep 16, 2011 7:49am Sep 16, 2011 7:49am
[quote=phneutral;4960707]Need the sessions indicator for MT4, the one that paints the session background in other color.

Anyone have it?

**************************************
http://codebase.mql4.com/3578
http://codebase.mql4.com/6171
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 i-SessionsLn.mq4   8 KB | 356 downloads
File Type: ex4 i-SessionsLn.ex4   9 KB | 261 downloads
  • #5,155
  • Sep 16, 2011 8:50am Sep 16, 2011 8:50am
Got stopped out. -15

My fault since I don't fallow the rules...

It was not in the time window and high of the sub was 2.4 pips away...

Fallowing and learning...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9.jpg Size: 717 KB
  • #5,156
  • Sep 16, 2011 8:52am Sep 16, 2011 8:52am
Well, no question, this time!

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...rk72/2Brev.png
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #5,157
  • Sep 16, 2011 10:31am Sep 16, 2011 10:31am
Quoting phneutral
Got stopped out. -15

My fault since I don't fallow the rules...

It was not in the time window and high of the sub was 2.4 pips away...

Fallowing and learning...

-------------------------

PHN, i wouldn't beat yourself up about the last one. Very easy mistake to make and i don't necessarily agree with the 2.4 pips there, on the 2min chart it looked a good 'un! Only thing was PA isn't trending, so should be on the look out for trend reversals. My above 2B rev chart explains why that trade was always a loser... trend had changed!

regards
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #5,158
  • Sep 16, 2011 11:58am Sep 16, 2011 11:58am
Thanks for your words cableguy.

Done for today BE.

See u next week.
PH
  • #5,159
  • Sep 16, 2011 8:40pm Sep 16, 2011 8:40pm
Hi Divergence

Firstly thanks for such a great thread and for sharing your strategy which I absolutely love.

But I am struggling with something which is causing me to lose trades regularly.

I understand about trading in the direction of the 15 min trend and dropping down to the 1 min chart looking for a pullback to enter on. I'm also confident in using your entry system.

But here's my problem. I keep entering on the wrong subs! They setup fine but still lose.

So my question to you is how do you decide which subs to take, but more importantly how do you decide which ones to not take!!!

Oh and one more question would this 1 min system work on any pair? For instance right now I have GBPJPY as the strongest/weakest combination so could I use your system on GBPJPY with maybe some adjustments to spread allowance and possibly bigger stop due to increased volatility?

Many thanks again for such a great thread!
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #5,160
  • Sep 19, 2011 3:27am Sep 19, 2011 3:27am
Clive - I think Divergence has various family health issues at the moment, which may keep him from posting - but I wonder if you've watched any of the videos of him going over his trades ? If not, you have to contact diamonddbw to get acccess via Vimeo. I found these helpful in terms of seeing how many entries he lets go.

Two very significant points are firstly that D is only targetting one or two trades per day and secondly, where there is a larger pullback, somewhere on this thread he states
Quote
when we get an extended pullback in this case 34 pips and we get a s u b let it go then wait for pullback that forms a 123 pattern the only setup in u s session was at 1014 est find it and study it
I have the impression D is not drawing flag lines as he trades, but rather refers very simply to the SMA(10).

In terms of one's Trading Plan, I think it's essential to clearly define how many trades per day are targeted , risk % per trade, what to do if first trade is a loser, all written down etc etc... but I expect you've done this. For the record, with this approach I'm only targetting one trade per session (I only trade the US morning once or twice per week, so 6 or 7 sessions total per week) & if I have 2 losing trades I stop for the day whatever the sequence.

Edit : my quote is from Post #4813 (sorry it's in red, I just copied it into my FTTT file that way).
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