Flag trading the trend

good retrace on aus from ema34 and HTLB pattern on cci

Caught the next buy sub ok, but it spat me out at break even, oh well if at first you don't succeed try, try again!

Can you believe it?

Bought the next sub but got stopped out just 4 pips before that enormous spike shot up 100 pips!!!!

You've gotta laugh otherwise you'd just cry!

Oh well tomorrows another day

Anyone know why there's been a sudden interest in buying EURs????

Ben Bernanke spoke

[QUOTE = clivepackham; 4957795] Can you believe it?: Mad: Bought the next sub But got stopped out just 4 pips spike Before Enormous That shot up 100 pips!! : Rofl: You've gotta laugh Otherwise you'd just cry!: Crying: Oh well tomorrows another day Anyone know why There's Been A sudden interest in buying EURs ????[/ QUOTE]
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perhaps:
FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--Five major central banks will conduct three dollar-liquidity providing tenders before the end of the year in a coordinated move, the European Central Bank said Thursday.

The ECB's Governing Council "has decided, in coordination with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank, to conduct three U.S. dollar liquidity-providing operations with a maturity of approximately three months covering the end of the year," the ECB said in a statement.

The new dollar operations will be conducted in addition to the bank's current weekly dollar swaps, the ECB said.

The tenders will be carried out as fixed-rate repurchase operations against eligible collateral, and with full allotment for bidders, the statement said.
The euro surged by more than 1% against the dollar and the yen as the European Central Bank took steps to improve dollar liquidity.

There has been widespread concern that some European banks are finding it difficult to get access to funds. On Wednesday, the ECB said two banks had tapped it for $575 million.

The ECB's Governing Council "has decided, in coordination with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank, to conduct three U.S. dollar liquidity-providing operations with a maturity of approximately three months covering the end of the year," the ECB said in a statement.

The new dollar operations will be conducted in addition to the bank's current weekly dollar swaps, the ECB said.

"They are proactively trying to cover dollar liquidity needs," said Greg Anderson, senior foreign exchange strategist at Citigroup in New York.

This step could be enough to avert a funding crisis for now, he said. "If there is some other massive shock it may not prove to be enough but to proactively deal with year end issues, it is probably enough."

guys, be prepared to trading day, read the calendar of economic events

Don't worry I have just read the ECB announcement aboiut providing liquidity to USD.

Now I understand whats happening.

Lets see if I can get this right? :nerd:

So all the banks around the world agree to provide liquidity to USD and the EURUSD shoots up on the back of it?????

Hmmmmm? Now I'm even more confused than I was before I read the news. Surely the rest of the world shoring up the USD is good for the USD isn't it?

Can anyone out there shed some light on what this actually means and what is the longer term effect of all this on EURUSD?

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positive for euro
A leading indicator that shows how expensive it is to swap euros into dollars is showing improvement after the ECB's announcement to ease dollar funding. The three-month euro-dollar cross-currency swap is quoted at minus -86.6 bps, from minus -92 bps just before the announcement and minus -96 bps on Wed. The ECB's measures are "a backstop" for dollar funding and "presumably this is meant to calm down the market," said Aroop Chatterjee at Barclays. "It alleviates pressure on the banking sector and is a positive for the euro." ([email protected])

they are selling gold.perhaps
The ECB's move to implement long-term dollar liquidity operations is "good news" for European banks and should help alleviate funding stress, says UniCredit Economist Marco Valli. "This is basically to address the willingness of American banks to fund European banks," who have grown wary of the sovereign debt crisis. Adds the decision is a sign the ECB will likely step up its non-standard measures before considering rate cuts, possibly by extending the length of its refi operations or by resuming its covered bond buying program.

It's simple, Clive, the euro's going back to parity with the dollar, just like it used to be. Even though US Treasuries should be collapsing and the dollar inflating into oblivion, it (the $) remains & will remain for the time being the world's reserve currency. This allows the Yanks, sorry, the Americans, to continue to screw the rest of us, including the Chinese who have to accept their only theoretically worthless paper.

On its way down to parity - simply because the eurozone is, staggeringly, even more incompetently run than the US - the euro will have many spikes in both directions, so best be prepared.

Getting back on topic and having listened to a couple of Divergence's webinars, I note he filters out quite a few entries with his experience, describing trading as an art as much as a science. I think qualifying the flags with trendlines is very useful in this respect & appreciate those who've posted in this regard.

Right, got a couple of kids home from school and it's pancake time (they eat a lot of pancakes in The Netherlands), so I have to head to the kitchen...



J (Scottish, not Dutch)

Thanks Alireza84

But still a little confused, am I right in saying that the whole idea behind this is to provide stability to the USD because if the USD flounders we are all in deep trouble?

If that is the case then surely we should see the USD strengthen on the back of it?

Or am I reading this completely wrong?

But at the end of the day its pointless trying to work out how the market will respond. Far better to just use divergences flag trading strategy and trade the flags in whatever direction the market wants to go.

Like the great man has said on numerous occasions, "Let the market show its hand and just follow"

Thanks all the same its nice to know why its moving.

But now it is moving lets start waving those flags and lets party!!!

I think I'm doing things right today

Nice one phneutral! Looks like you are certainly getting the hang of it to me.

But will say that, with this particular sub, even if you had of taken it you would probably have got to break even so wouldn't of lost anyway.

But on the subject of moving to break even can I ask everyone who trades this method a general question?

When you get a winning trade do you find the winners basically just go straight to TP without coming back to entry point?

The reason I ask this is I'm tinkering with the idea of moving to break even after 4 to 5 pips up, therefore safe guarding my money sooner. Of course I don't want to miss out on too many winning trades by doing this so just wandered how many of your winners come back test your stop before going onto becoming winners.

My thinking behind this is that if I move the stop up quickly and it gets stopped out, then assuming its pulling back further I should be able to catch the next sub if the trade idea still stands.

But of course if the price keeps moving back on me then I have saved my money.

Any thoughts or comments on this idea?

The few really good traders I know seem to have one thing in common : the ability to hold through a test of their entry zone - they expect it - and yet to know when to dump the trade quickly around b/e.

With this entry method, I am moving my stop to b/e +1 @+10, but it has already cost me one winning trade today (as posted earlier).

Just got stopped out again @+1 after being 1 tick from target - it happens.

Back to the kitchen...

This one goes BE . Still... not a looser!

Took this one short, but close it BE. Don't like price action.

Maybe it was a winner... or not!

Edit: It was not.

more trade... this one emotional, grrrr!

Must stay out of those ones, the trade was first and I get frustrated...

And another that I avoided...

Done for today.
Thank u all.
PH

Well done phneutral good trading to have so many trades and one winner with the rest break even.

Probably best to stick to the trading times laid out by Divergence as you were running a bit late. Trade like that durring peak hours and you will do fine I'm sure.

The secret is knowing which subs to take and more importantly which to NOT TAKE.

I've devised a little system to help me with this dilemma, which I really like and it proved quite tasty today too. Its a slight variation on my 3 CCIs system but instead of using 3 CCIs I now only use 2 the 1min and the 15 min cutting out the middle one of 5 mins.

I believe its all about making sure you are looking at subs after a deep pullback.

All you do is wait for the 15 min CCI to go red (when looking for buy subs) then take the next buy sub on the 1 min CCI. It's that simple with todays London open giving me 3 winning subs and yesterdays London open giving me 4 winning subs.

Sure I might miss a few good ones but boy, does it ever help me miss those losing ones!!

Heres 2 charts for today and yesterdays London open .

Not saying it works every time but you can almost gaurantee it when it coincides with price touching the 200 ema as these 2 charts illustrate.

Haven't tested it fully but so far so good.

Will keep you all posted on how it goes tomorrow.

Thanks for your words Clive.

Those charts look really great. Have you traded those subs?

Could you pass me that template for me to try?

Thanks and see you tomorrow!
PH