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AUD/USD

  • #33,261
  • Sep 15, 2011 3:02am Sep 15, 2011 3:02am
it s up ward
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  • #33,262
  • Sep 15, 2011 4:39am Sep 15, 2011 4:39am
hmm..23.6% fib retracement of the drop from 1.0763 to 1.0188 lies at 0324. am long from 0252, will most probably add to my position if/when it gets as low as 0225

first chart ive ever posted..apologies if its a little sloppy
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  • #33,263
  • Sep 15, 2011 5:41am Sep 15, 2011 5:41am
Quoting taxe91
hmm..23.6% fib retracement of the drop from 1.0763 to 1.0188 lies at 0324. am long from 0252, will most probably add to my position if/when it gets as low as 0225

first chart ive ever posted..apologies if its a little sloppy
closed for +30 pips, am awaiting news from the US of A before re-entry
  • #33,264
  • Sep 15, 2011 6:08am Sep 15, 2011 6:08am
Quoting sudathkg
currently pair at 1.0241 and still it try to up up to 1.0290 any comments?
trying to stay abv 323
  • #33,265
  • Sep 15, 2011 7:56am Sep 15, 2011 7:56am
With the weak US jobless data, didn't expect the AUD/USD to be going down. But then again, AU is following lock-step with EU today and is weak today. I am seeing 5 pips drop in AU for every drop in EU. There is a trichet speech at 2:00 pm, if EU drops further at that time, you can expect AU to drop further.

My 2 cents
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #33,266
  • Sep 15, 2011 8:15am Sep 15, 2011 8:15am
Quoting Forexia
With the weak US jobless data, didn't expect the AUD/USD to be going down. But then again, AU is following lock-step with EU today and is weak today. I am seeing 5 pips drop in AU for every drop in EU. There is a trichet speech at 2:00 pm, if EU drops further at that time, you can expect AU to drop further.

My 2 cents
Oh Well, that analysis just went out of the door with that ECB announcement of USD loan coordination.

Good of you of taking some pips earlier
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #33,267
  • Sep 15, 2011 8:28am Sep 15, 2011 8:28am
closed my 0240 and 0340 @ 0340. Will rebuy on a dip below 0300, or a break of 0380. If 0380 gives way, should be clear sailing up to 0450 area. 0480 cannot be violated, else a lot of EW shorts are going to be screwed. It's up to the equity markets now. They will interpret just what this ECB announcement means and how much affect it will really have. If means short term salvation for Greece, close your shorts. Fast. The downside will be over for a while.

Regards,
  • #33,268
  • Sep 15, 2011 8:36am Sep 15, 2011 8:36am
short in shit right now....
  • #33,269
  • Edited 9:03am Sep 15, 2011 8:49am | Edited 9:03am
Quoting VennD
Scalp long @ 258 ...BE+1.
Scalp long @ 258 Closed @ 340 ... reversed entry .... scalp short @ 340 and closed @ 289. Next AU upside target to trip probably 415.
  • #33,270
  • Sep 15, 2011 8:50am Sep 15, 2011 8:50am
Quoting FX-Petra
closed my 0240 and 0340 @ 0340. Will rebuy on a dip below 0300, or a break of 0380. If 0380 gives way, should be clear sailing up to 0450 area. 0480 cannot be violated, else a lot of EW shorts are going to be screwed. It's up to the equity markets now. They will interpret just what this ECB announcement means and how much affect it will really have. If means short term salvation for Greece, close your shorts. Fast. The downside will be over for a while.

Regards,
Rebuy 1 lot @ 0290. Hoping that area of resistance will turn to support. No more buys agian until below 0200 or a top break of 0380. Still targeting 0750 area.... but that might not be for a week or two.

Regards,
  • #33,271
  • Sep 15, 2011 8:54am Sep 15, 2011 8:54am
Quoting BurgerKing
short in shit right now....
just depends on how long you are willing to hold it. Long term short this pair sucks because of swap. We may very well get another good dip.... I would definatley hang on until a break of 0380. But that's just me, I don't know your situation.

Regards,
  • #33,272
  • Sep 15, 2011 10:25am Sep 15, 2011 10:25am
Quoting VennD
Scalp long @ 258 Closed @ 340 ... reversed entry .... scalp short @ 340 and closed @ 289. Next AU upside target to trip probably 415.
Scalp long @ 280 BE+1
  • #33,273
  • Sep 15, 2011 10:44am Sep 15, 2011 10:44am
Quoting VennD
Scalp long @ 258 Closed @ 340 ... reversed entry .... scalp short @ 340 and closed @ 289. Next AU upside target to trip probably 415.
I'll be unloading my 0290 and 0440 lots on an approach of 0415.

Regards,
  • #33,274
  • Sep 15, 2011 11:09am Sep 15, 2011 11:09am
Targets achived! WOW... 180 held with one still running @ 194 look to get back in long with continued US weakness. I have 362 next fence. ..
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  • #33,275
  • Sep 15, 2011 11:47am Sep 15, 2011 11:47am
Quoting Chillypiper
Targets achived! WOW... 180 held with one still running @ 194 look to get back in long with continued US weakness. I have 362 next fence. ..
Congrats, Chilly. I would hang on to that 0194 if you can afford to. If some of this risk settles down for a week or two, it could be a big winner for you.

Regards,
  • #33,276
  • Sep 15, 2011 11:57am Sep 15, 2011 11:57am
Yes Sir! She is a free trade now, so I'll let her ride. I see us possibly ranging here a bit given the past weeks PA @ 362 and 292. I would like to see 476 really, but been hard to put a real plan together here as of late.

Quoting FX-Petra
Congrats, Chilly. I would hang on to that 0194 if you can afford to. If some of this risk settles down for a week or two, it could be a big winner for you.

Regards,
  • #33,277
  • Sep 15, 2011 12:30pm Sep 15, 2011 12:30pm
The Daily close on AU yesterday was a selling climax bar.

I was surprised (and delighted) a couple of weeks ago when Jim Rogers mentioned on Bloomberg that they actually use these as guides in their trading strategies (He didn't mention what TF). It was smaller than previous ones (however it maybe all that was needed)-- but in a key zone on the 76 fibs. (The EU decline began with a Monthly Buying Climax (and 3 months of Distribution behind that)

Daily Bear EW count is invalided at 1.0764 The origin/start of wave 1.

Wave 2 could easily go to 1.0624 the 76 Fib (nice fractal) and the origin of the first wave 2 of 1. Or end at 1.0360...

Here's small shot of my daily/weekly count.
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  • #33,278
  • Sep 15, 2011 12:39pm Sep 15, 2011 12:39pm
Quoting Chillypiper
Targets achived! WOW... 180 held with one still running @ 194 look to get back in long with continued US weakness. I have 362 next fence. ..
Wooowww

  • #33,279
  • Sep 15, 2011 1:11pm Sep 15, 2011 1:11pm
Well, we approach 0370ish area. Of greater importance is Dow 11,414. If Dow can clear this hurdle with a daily close above, it should be clear sailing for A/U up to at least 0450 area...maybe 0480. Then we will have to watch for Dow 11,613. A break there and A/U shorts would need to have their head examined for holding on. That would clear the way for a retest of 0750-0800 region. Will the secondary top hold there? That is where the answers will come in regards to big picture trend reversal. If we tested that area, and had a STRONG rejection, I would consider getting short..... and that takes a lot for me to say!!

Regards,
  • #33,280
  • Edited 2:07pm Sep 15, 2011 1:40pm | Edited 2:07pm
LOL..Yep you said it... Optimistic pessimism. I'm in the same boat. S&P bull flag scenario looks to have room to the upside, but if see fails (and is bear flag) we will be back to a 9965.

edit..need more coffee

Quoting FX-Petra
Well, we approach 0370ish area. Of greater importance is Dow 11,414. If Dow can clear this hurdle with a daily close above, it should be clear sailing for A/U up to at least 0450 area...maybe 0480. Then we will have to watch for Dow 11,613. A break there and A/U shorts would need to have their head examined for holding on. That would clear the way for a retest of 0750-0800 region. Will the secondary top hold there? That is where the answers will come in regards to big picture trend reversal. If we tested that area, and had a STRONG rejection, I...
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