3750 kave..?
I bet this time will pause ...
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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile
- #3,404
- Sep 14, 2011 12:38pm Sep 14, 2011 12:38pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
This was a value area trade after the pullback that was initiated after NY pit session open with the low end of the shakeout hitting the DPOC acting as a base as shown on the daily chart on the right. My entry was made right after 10:30 EST, one bar after the shakeout. Note the spring off previous US session low was a reference too. I have since reduce my exposure to half, initial risk was 22pips.
Prior to to that, the NY electronic open provides a fake-out opportunity as it fails to take out European high.
Chart is config to TK, European &...
I would like to think we will test last weeks poc(vpoc), and on to test last months poc (vpoc).
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
- #3,411
- Edited 2:38pm Sep 19, 2011 11:54am | Edited 2:38pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
I'm trying to apply the open of NYSE reflected into haw price moves in first hour and determine market conviction and it's relationship with the previous value and range (using as previous London sessions) i'm trying to do this from few days but seems even if I found as a great way to gauge the sentiment I need time to apply on the live environment....do you use'it in your day trading and how?
Right at this moment we have 4 more minutes till the initial balance is established and we had an open drive outside of the value from London and I would...
I personally dont use nyse hours. I have my personal preference, for many types of reasons. This is just my opinion and it works for me, it might not be right for others.
imo "new york stock exchange" is just that. imo a place to trade stocks. I dont trade stocks, I trade forex. imo 2 totally different animals! So why would I care about that open? I dont do my shopping there. Why would that open mean anything other than a slight increse in liquidity. NYBOT "new york board of trade" They do trade dollars, and they open sooner than the nyse. Why would I wait for the stock market to open for my Forex IB analysis when nybot started trading dollars over an hour earlier? especially when I dont even trade stocks? The first hour of currency trading is of more interest to me than the first hour of the stock market. ? It doesnt make sense imo. Its like waiting for the auto dealership to open, to do your grocery shopping. NYBOT & CBOT starts trading dollars before the stock market opens. There is also CME open alittle after stock open. They trade currency as a commodiity. I like to to keep my IB analysis to the markets I'm trading. Alot of people who read MP info imo dont look at the authors context in chart examples. Most mp book examples and chart settings come from the market the author is trading. emini, s&p's bonds. JDalton doesnt trade "spot forex". Were talking 2 different instruments and markets. His idea of "the open" is from a stock market point of view. Forex and stocks again, imo are 2 totally different animals. But that doessnt mean Im right, it just makes more sense to me. I like to know & learn the markets Im trading. What markets actually trade currency? What are the opens and closes? yes people do exchange currency to buy & sell stocks, but the chart info I am trading does is not consist of stock market info. It comes from my broker who does his shopping elsewhere. Again, its a matter of prefference, imo it just doesnt make sense for me to wait 1 hour after the stock exchange open for my Foreign Exchange IB analysis. When people started to exchange currency over an hour earlier. Most people who want to buy US stocks have to exchange their currency to dollars first, so imo if you plan on buying US stocks at the stock market open, you would need to first start exchanging your currency, ahead of the open. And where would you convert your currency before the nyse open? Even if it was open, you cant trade money there, its a stock exchange, not foreign exchange. So, its logical to me that the only place to do this is "NYBOT" or"CBOT" where they actually trade currency, and open before the stock exchange. NYBOT trades currency, I trade currency, that open and IB has more of a meaning for me. Take my opinion with a grain of salt. What works for some might not work for others. Do your homework, experiment, and youll find a combination that works for you. Watch charts with different IB settings together and find one that makes sense for you
.edit: If your IB was set to the NYBOT or CBOT open would you still have the same analysis of current PA? Did you ask yourself where you are (opened) in relation to the Weekly VA? Would that given you a different perspective?
Add to: it would be great if you would provide a chart of what your looking at when asking these questions. The only way for me to understand what you see is to rebuild the chart with your settings to figure out what your talking about. It interferes with my trading. (explains my lack of posts) But for future reference I dont mind taking time to share opinions, advice or resources, but in return could you take alittle time to atleast post your chart to give me some idea of what your talking about. 4 minutes to IB settle, you want me to stop trading, build your chart, analyse it, and give you an opinion? Your questions would get a quicker response, if you'd include a chart. If you cant invest a small amount time to post a chart, why would I want to invest mine? Please include charts
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
- #3,412
- Sep 20, 2011 12:07am Sep 20, 2011 12:07am
its logical to me that the only place to do this is "NYBOT" or"CBOT" where they actually trade currency, and open before the stock exchange. NYBOT trades currency, I trade currency, that open and IB has more of a meaning for me. Take my opinion with a grain of salt. What works for some might not work for others. Do your homework, experiment, and youll find a combination that works for you. Watch charts with different IB settings together and find one that makes sense for you
edit: If your IB was set to the NYBOT or CBOT open would...
i didn't post a chart because the platform i use provides MP with pretty limited attributes and i think it will bring more confusion instead of clarification...you have an example. but you are right in your statement regarding this.
i really appreciate the time you took in your answer and every answer it is helping me allot into MP demystification...
- #3,413
- Sep 20, 2011 4:04am Sep 20, 2011 4:04am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
i used for a while cbot opening but 7:30 instead of 7:20 central time and i changed to nyse opening after some opinions i saw in different places. but i will keep an eye on it again because you're right in the way you put the problem, by the way the analogy between dealer and groceries was very funny. i can't use weekly MP in my charts.
i didn't post a chart because the platform i use provides MP with pretty limited attributes and i think it will bring more confusion instead of clarification...you have an example. but you are right in your statement...
. I just wanted to share a page of an article I posted awhile back I sugguested others read. "intraday patterns in FX returns and orderflow". But I use the following info to support my theory as to why I use 8am ny time (12:00GMT) for my IB analysis. Your chart looks just fine
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
- #3,414
- Sep 20, 2011 8:39am Sep 20, 2011 8:39am
You always have really good questions. I did not realize you didnt have a weekly profile
Your chart looks just fine
regarding the hours why 8 and not 8:30 est id euro futures contract start it opening at 8:20? today looked like the second one was a better choice, but i don't used enough MP to get a reliable opinion
when you compare the type of opening with previous value area/range, you use previous session or previous day?
thank's...
- #3,415
- Sep 20, 2011 11:16am Sep 20, 2011 11:16am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
- #3,416
- Sep 20, 2011 2:17pm Sep 20, 2011 2:17pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
when you compare the type of opening with previous value area/range, you use previous session or previous day?
thank's...
Alittle bit of both, and it depends. I personally feel that the longer term players(otf) carry more weight than the local traders. I use the longer profile daily/weekly for my direction. If im below value on the higher TF (not skirting the edge of value) that means otf buyers will be looking for a good place to step in and get resopnsive. And that place is usually were the locals believe prices are falling through the floor. Im long and stay biased only when pa is traveling from below value taveling up towards the va on the higher tf (usually the weekly profile) until it reaches above value, then I wait and do the opposite in reverse. So while Im lets say long biased for the week, I trade the session profiles info to enter/take small profits or add to my building long positions usually taking advantage of inititive buying oppertunities along the way with the smaller profiles. So, I look at the weekly profile, and ask myself, "self, if I was trading the weekly profile would I be looking for an entry place to go long or short?" Thats what OTF traders are thinking themselves. So if I think OTF will be looking to go long, I dont want to be caught on the otherside of that trade! So, to be safe, I will only look for longs until the weekly profile, tells me different. Just being short or long above or below value is just trading S&R with 50-50 odds , the important info imo is in the distribution of prices (the shape of the profile) . you may be below value but thats not a good enough reasson to get long imo, what the shape of the profile means, is everything. Knowing how the prices are being distributed, will tell you whos getting long and whos not.
I tend to be in a position longer than just a session or 2, some times a few days, so Im not nessesarry looking to enter or jump in trades at the immediate open of any session. I dont end each session or 24h period zero sum. Finding the right price, at the right time, at the right place on the chart, to enter a trade, most of the time doesnt happen that often for me during the opens. I mentioned something about traders being "price-led" or "value-led" in a previous post. MP traders tend to be "value-led" (longer term).
...."Pretty much traders can be divided into two classes- those who buy on a rising price trend/sell a falling one, called "price-led" traders, and those who buy a falling trend/sell a rising one, called "valued-led" Two very different mentalities. Understanding the type of trader you are and being consistent is very important. Value-led traders buy low (below value), sell high (above value), price-led traders buy high(above value) sell higher. imo most forex traders are trend followers "price-led", as AMT/MP tend to be more "value-led". Until I decided/understood the type of trader I choose to be, I get less conflicting signals. Two different trading mentalities, trying to do both can make me feel schizophrenic."....
I am a "value-led" trader, I try to keep my trades along the line of buyinging below value, and selling above. I shy away from those breakout RE trades. If I bought below value and am long, I dont need to trade the breakout RE above value, cause Im already (been) long when price is breaking above value
(OTF has been long too). And what could possibly cause that breakout to fail? Profit taking! Id rather be taking profit, than to have entered a failing breakout trade. For me, my trading style which tends to be slightly longer term doesnt evolve around the opens.But to answer your question, I would start with were I opened in relation to the previous days profile, to get a sense if we are in or out of balance. And then id use the session profiles to get the best entries/ or to determine a shift in sentiment. The session profiles(analysis) is very good for very short term trades and scalping imo. Im looking for more than that. But for me personally, I use the sessions profile info, to add to existing trades/profit taking, to manage open trades, but I take direction from the highrer TF. sorry for the long drawn out post, it not a very easy question to answer because its all discretionary in relation to current PA.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
- #3,417
- Sep 20, 2011 2:28pm Sep 20, 2011 2:28pm
- | Joined May 2010 | Status: Day by Day | 1,004 Posts
Change is the only constant
- #3,418
- Sep 20, 2011 2:47pm Sep 20, 2011 2:47pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
here's a short on ES today. details in the chart attached...personally I'm expecting the bear flag on the daily to break down, as mentioned in one of my lasts posts with target of around 1040 to start.
. But I am curious. What about trading costs, do you have any pros or cons. Im not really sure, as I have no experience. Any comments you care to share?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
- #3,419
- Sep 20, 2011 3:24pm Sep 20, 2011 3:24pm
- | Joined May 2010 | Status: Day by Day | 1,004 Posts
Great looking trade so far! How's the ES trading going for you? Do you see any diferences in behavior as opposed to Forex? Any pros or cons, you might have discovered? I havent been brave enough to step outside the realm of forex trading
adjusting SL to BE and will re-evaluate before tomorrow's NY openpersonally i find the ES easier to trade because it is less volatile than FX. it makes it easier and less stressful if your trade starts going against you because it generally doesn't go against you that far (with proper entries of course). I also find follows the overnight order flow concept from JD more closely as opposed to 24hr markets like FX....yes i know futures are also 24h markets, and that is what i'm trading on my platform, but the US pit session is still the prevailing session, whereas that is not so clear on FX sometimes...
as for costs, i have 2 patforms. my day trading platform where i trade ES and forex, and my long term investment platform where i trade the Canadian leveraged ETF's that track the S&P 500 index. spread on my day trading platform is .75 points, so basically similar to the FX spreads. the ETF's cost me between 10-20$ round trip, but these are generally held longer term.
Change is the only constant
- #3,420
- Sep 20, 2011 3:44pm Sep 20, 2011 3:44pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
so far so good
personally i find the ES easier to trade because it is less volatile than FX. it makes it easier and less stressful if your trade starts going against you because it generally doesn't go against you that far (with proper entries of course). I also find follows the overnight order flow concept from JD more closely as opposed to 24hr markets like FX....yes i know futures are also 24h markets, and that is what i'm trading on my platform, but the US pit session is...
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones