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  • #11,621
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:05pm Sep 12, 2011 4:05pm
lol WTF just walk the dam dog
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  • #11,622
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:08pm Sep 12, 2011 4:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
man i fu... 3650 is the one.

king u should have more saxoo on the money
  • #11,623
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:09pm Sep 12, 2011 4:09pm
Quoting Magix
we should see one fuck of a good market range, should be able to find a couple bucks in here someplace...
But that's not what I'm writing about.

I took a look at Velocity. It's a species of "signal-noise" metrics. Those come in two main types.

First type contain the "quick and dirties," which basically form a ratio of the sum of differences between bars divided by the sum of absolute differences between bars. So, if you have, say "1 2 3 4 5", the differences sum to 4, and the absolute difference is also 4, so the ratio is 1.0. If you have "1 2 3 2 1", the sum of differences is 0, and abs diff again 4, so the ratio is zero.

As that example shows, they're used sometimes for turning point identification.

Second type uses sorting math; basically relating the number of moves you have to make in a list of numbers to get them sorted. That's what "Velocity" does. It has the added wrinkle that it scales to the range of the prices themselves, rather than mapping it always onto (-1 to +1).

The things are also called rank order, or serial correlation, statistics.

They're some of the best "blind" (ie, programmable) trend measures; they can even be used to have a machine draw trend lines and channels, because the slope of a line can be related to the rank order stats (regression lines, after all, have serial correlation coefficients in 'em)

I know you say you're not a math guy, but I figured like any pro in any field, you like to know a little about how the tools work.
  • #11,624
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:14pm Sep 12, 2011 4:14pm
Quoting OldQuant
But that's not what I'm writing about.

I took a look at Velocity. It's a species of "signal-noise" metrics. Those come in two main types.

First type contain the "quick and dirties," which basically form a ratio of the sum of differences between bars divided by the sum of absolute differences between bars. So, if you have, say "1 2 3 4 5", the differences sum to 4, and the absolute difference is also 4, so the ratio is 1.0. If you have "1 2 3 2 1", the sum of differences is 0, and abs diff again 4, so the ratio is zero.

As that example...
lol any of the above realy works or we go back to baisces , bands, ma's and sto sope
  • #11,625
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:15pm Sep 12, 2011 4:15pm
Quoting OldQuant
But that's not what I'm writing about.

I took a look at Velocity. It's a species of "signal-noise" metrics. Those come in two main types.

First type contain the "quick and dirties," which basically form a ratio of the sum of differences between bars divided by the sum of absolute differences between bars. So, if you have, say "1 2 3 4 5", the differences sum to 4, and the absolute difference is also 4, so the ratio is 1.0. If you have "1 2 3 2 1", the sum of differences is 0, and abs diff again 4, so the ratio is zero.

As that example...
You lost me there old Q!
  • #11,626
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:15pm Sep 12, 2011 4:15pm
Quoting kill56
king u should have more saxoo on the money
50 was on the bear side. its actually already put 3620 min in play,,, below 3626/28... just being cautious.. but the fuse was lit.. it was lit 4 3638 and 3518 already
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #11,627
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:24pm Sep 12, 2011 4:24pm
Quoting OldQuant

I know you say you're not a math guy, but I figured like any pro in any field, you like to know a little about how the tools work.
I appreciate the explanation, it is a little more in depth then what I had previously read on working with Velocity...

I am a math guy, bit of a dork, but my math would be equivalent to grade skewl math in your terms...

It's not the math that I can't get a handle on, really...I just like the visual representation of the lines and the use of it as a confirmation signal. In speaking on the math terms, the settings I use for velocity work wonders on the USD crosses, but could really be tweaked a little better for my yens and swissies...and even on these, not so much just the velocity, but more so of the overall sets that I run with.

For me, each trade pair has it's own independent personality and running assumption trades never really worked out well for me, so watching a fist full of the indies, comparitive price action and ranges and working with the observence of the individual sessions gives me the best market guesses. Still boils down to a bit of a numbers game and sitting out the mix when all the ducks aren't in a row....

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #11,628
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:24pm Sep 12, 2011 4:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
50 was on the bear side. its actually already put 3620 min in play,,, below 3626/28... just being cautious.. but the fuse was lit.. it was lit 4 3638 and 3518 already
looking at the same thing lets see what little guys will do
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  • #11,629
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:02pm Sep 12, 2011 5:02pm
So 3625...bounce or break?
  • #11,630
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:04pm Sep 12, 2011 5:04pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Thompson Rueters Eikon

Kim dont do bloomberg....
they gave that out for free......
  • #11,631
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:13pm Sep 12, 2011 5:13pm
Quoting Magix
each trade pair has it's own independent personality and running assumption trades never really worked out well for me, so watching a fist full of the indies, comparitive price action and ranges and working with the observence of the individual sessions gives me the best market guesses.
Gospel. I was just looking about an hour ago to see what an old friend, a guy who had been a senior quant at citi, was doing these days (because of Wulgar's posting of citi's short). Long story short, I saw that he was cited in a study that was done concerning the effect of "noise traders" in the FX market (read: retail) on banks' hedging and arbitrage. They found that the amount of "noise trading" changed the PA (they didn't use that term, of course) sufficiently that arb and hedge had to take on a larger trend following component to work.

The point is that different markets are going to have different characters, determined partly by forces like that. It's always been true in commods. The markets that are the darlings of the speculators, like classic pork bellies, would make no sense in their day to day move over the fundametal trends; move for move's sake. The markets dominated by producers and users (like milk) would behave in a completely different way.

Signal/noise.
  • #11,632
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:14pm Sep 12, 2011 5:14pm
Quoting needpips
So 3625...bounce or break?
should c 20 min
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #11,633
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:15pm Sep 12, 2011 5:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
should c 20 min
weve bounced / crossed it a quite a bit today
  • #11,634
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:15pm Sep 12, 2011 5:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
should c 20 min
ohh.

first Kiss is usually a rejection..
DPP @ 36172
  • #11,635
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:17pm Sep 12, 2011 5:17pm
Quoting fxjawn
short from 70 seeing where it goes
added a lil more
  • #11,636
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:18pm Sep 12, 2011 5:18pm
Quoting fxjawn
added a lil more
me toooo

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  • #11,637
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:20pm Sep 12, 2011 5:20pm
Quoting Piters
ohh.

first Kiss is usually a rejection..
DPP @ 36172
pure pa for me. i didn't know the daily
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #11,638
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:22pm Sep 12, 2011 5:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
should c 20 min
  • #11,639
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:26pm Sep 12, 2011 5:26pm
Quoting darimik
big leap towards 34xx after this 3620. may not be there to join the move (if)

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those are still valid for me. still havent created anything new thouhg

3621..

3470. and even then 3413 is bigger..... I will wait for the shit to hit the fan
  • #11,640
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:26pm Sep 12, 2011 5:26pm
my sig says we may bounce 40 n
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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