The Really Useless Thread | Page 574 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #11,461
  • Sep 12, 2011 9:46am Sep 12, 2011 9:46am
Quoting sisse
Well it doesn't look ready yet in my charts TA wise alone. A weekly support after a deep move is not an easy one to break on a first attempt. However, FA and related markets are heavily pointing to a panic move. An as you probably know me by now. FA (over)rules any TA move...

In any case, I got 1.329x next level down what do you got to the down side...

sisse
33% 2000-08 => 3440, for now.. if taken.. then we see.. but as I can see we are going to challenge 31xx level this year for sure..
  • #11,462
  • Sep 12, 2011 9:50am Sep 12, 2011 9:50am
Quoting Piters
33% 2000-08 => 3440, for now.. if taken.. then we see.. but as I can see we are going to challenge 31xx level this year for sure..
Oh sure I meant below the current weekly S. I agree with 1.344x for overshoot on weekly S....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #11,463
  • Sep 12, 2011 9:53am Sep 12, 2011 9:53am
Quoting Venice
I'm definitely in sell the rallies mode atm..., latest entry was s @ 3644.

This thing has been stair stepping all day long today (up and down). Just moving with the flow I have no longer term outlook at the moment (other then overall bias short), but not sure how far south I am looking.

Daily completely ignored some daily demand zones slamming right through 'em.
Are you looking over my shoulder?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 110912_EU_m5_2.png Size: 34 KB


Nor do I...lol
  • #11,464
  • Sep 12, 2011 9:54am Sep 12, 2011 9:54am
i was s from 3601... i closed now because if 3583 being a support... i have a long 5m sig usually good for 40... but im not taking it.. i will sell it... in a strong move the 40 normal may only be 20 pips.. so i will look to short 3603/05 if i have a decent 1m sig.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #11,465
  • Sep 12, 2011 9:59am Sep 12, 2011 9:59am
Quoting gatorinla
i was s from 3601... i closed now because if 3583 being a support... i have a long 5m sig usually good for 40... but im not taking it.. i will sell it... in a strong move the 40 normal may only be 20 pips.. so i will look to short 3603/05 if i have a decent 1m sig.
Maybe 3618 might be a good place for a short.
  • #11,466
  • Sep 12, 2011 10:00am Sep 12, 2011 10:00am
Quoting gatorinla
i was s from 3601... i closed now because if 3583 being a support... i have a long 5m sig usually good for 40... but im not taking it.. i will sell it... in a strong move the 40 normal may only be 20 pips.. so i will look to short 3603/05 if i have a decent 1m sig.
Ive got an entry long at 3565....(if we get there)
  • #11,467
  • Sep 12, 2011 10:00am Sep 12, 2011 10:00am
Quoting bbakker
Maybe 3618 might be a good place for a short.
If 36 holds then 1.38-40 might be on tap
  • #11,468
  • Sep 12, 2011 10:01am Sep 12, 2011 10:01am
one for the road smoking the pipe been a great day suny and green enjoy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30m eur.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #11,469
  • Sep 12, 2011 10:03am Sep 12, 2011 10:03am
Quoting needpips
If 36 holds then 1.38-40 might be on tap
It is possible, after all, we are in weekly demand!
  • #11,470
  • Sep 12, 2011 10:08am Sep 12, 2011 10:08am
Quoting bbakker
Maybe 3618 might be a good place for a short.
Meh... couple of pips short of 3618... Back to the drawing board... I must do better!
  • #11,471
  • Sep 12, 2011 10:27am Sep 12, 2011 10:27am
Quoting needpips
Ive got an entry long at 3565....(if we get there)
3577 is the mid of the expected move.. to 3537/38 min
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #11,472
  • Sep 12, 2011 10:29am Sep 12, 2011 10:29am
Quoting Fudomyo
　

at the moment waiting to see how the daily closes. if 3590 holds we may go for the higher resistance test 3840. if we close below 3590, 3450 is radar for me as well. (posted these earlier on the EU thread)
as Sisse pointed EUR market hurt badly, we are crossing all intraday supports.. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a new Lew - even today..
  • #11,473
  • Sep 12, 2011 10:35am Sep 12, 2011 10:35am
DX and the bonds have gotten a little frisky, and with ES sick, this level might give way this time...

But what'do I know?
  • #11,474
  • Sep 12, 2011 10:35am Sep 12, 2011 10:35am
nothing positive here.#11045
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #11,475
  • Sep 12, 2011 10:39am Sep 12, 2011 10:39am
Quoting bbakker
Are you looking over my shoulder?

Attachment

Nor do I...lol
Easy 70 pips so far... all cruise control'ish. lol.
  • #11,476
  • Sep 12, 2011 10:42am Sep 12, 2011 10:42am
Quoting Raza
Good numbers..Markus.

Question is how far up the limits it can go to see the numbers Below?

What is your resistence level other than 1.3730...

can it go below more and if so how far is the limit?

What if this 3 of 3 may be is extended 5 C wave not A.... counting from 1.4549.


Hello Raza my friend,


sorry for answering so late. Was working and had trouble with my Notebook :-(

From what I see now the subwave 5 I was waiting for never materialized.

Therefore I think 3551 on 09.09.2011 was the end of a 3 of 3 of 3, and now we are in wave 4 of 3 of 3. Maybe this wave 4, which counts best as an ABC expanded flat was finished at 3693

This count is invalidated with movement above 3874

3730 had two reasonings:

a) it is the lower channel line of the first base channel

b) it would have been kind the heart of the 3 of 3 of 3

To the lower side there are literally no limits, since we can extend and extend and extend (surprise: behavior of a wave 3 - really brutal, relentlessly)

Therefore it is important to NOT try to catch a bottom (without confirmation). If you plan so, keep SL super tight at S/R-lines.

But the rule of thumb is: do not fuc! around with wave 3's of this magnitude.


Regarding your C-wave proposal:

Everyone and their dogs thought about > 1.50 (either in ABC-Counts or in impulsive counts)

Everyone and their dogs were/are? highly bullish, with sentiment readings far above 90% for EUR. In their view the USD was doomed due to "printing". But they did not see the forest for the trees with bankrupt countries looming in Europe. Perfect scenario for wave 2 end and start wave 3 scenario.

We will see.

Due to the corrective mess we are in since moths I will not rule out a single alternative EUR bullish count, but with reality setting in in my beloved Europe it is hard to imagine how social mood could take another turn right now.


Keep care and best to you,


Markus
  • #11,477
  • Sep 12, 2011 10:45am Sep 12, 2011 10:45am
Quoting gatorinla
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukXCfOXMtZU
for the hearing impaired.
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #11,478
  • Sep 12, 2011 10:57am Sep 12, 2011 10:57am
Quoting Venice
Easy 70 pips so far... all cruise control'ish. lol.
70? did you take it on the rejection of last h4 highs or on the close....?. In any case, nicely done.

I am also clearing 1st target on H4 support (the freaking support that wasn't tested in the morning .....) on the hourly close. I am aggressively trailling stops as TA is still not ready to a new break today without a FA or risk trigger in my books. Obvious daily S @1.350x and jackpot at 1.329x (but look v. unrealistic TA for now) still open.


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #11,479
  • Sep 12, 2011 11:01am Sep 12, 2011 11:01am
Quoting needpips
Ive got an entry long at 3565....(if we get there)
executed...batman
  • #11,480
  • Sep 12, 2011 11:01am Sep 12, 2011 11:01am
Quoting sisse
70? did you take on the rejection of last h4 highs or on the close....?. In any case, nicely done.

I am also clearing 1st target on H4 support (the freaking support that wasn't tested in the morning .....) on the hourly close. I am aggressively trailling stops as TA is still not ready to a new break today without a FA or risk trigger in my books. Obvious daily S @1.350x and jackpot at 1.329x (but look v. unrealistic TA for now) still open.


sisse
Sold the rally after the turn on the 10m chart, Ceiling established at 3644 and took the short on the retest. Was zoomed all the way in, didn't pull much from the h4.

Pretty sure everyone else is seeing the same thing now... 3536 (h4) and 3487(Daily)... decision level to determine if we are going to continue down or actually start a bit of an uptrend on the h4.
26 traders viewing now