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  • #11,261
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:27am Sep 12, 2011 2:27am
Quoting sisse
Is the only one left....which is not a good if we remember what happened the last time (credit crunch triggered) the FED had the ultimate decision.... A early selloff in european stock markets (all of them a dozen ticks away from last and key supports) may trigger some "public intervention" today (I mean bla bla bla from the UK and EU governments/authorities/bureaucrats, etc).

Nothing tradable so far in currencies (CAD reached parity, UC on early short zone and AUD on early long zone) but some v. good options forming in almost all other markets.

busy...
One thing I can see happening is playing with the EFSF. The ECB is still out shopping at a rate of 20Bn a week. With the agreed bailout now the EFSF is already down to 200Bn before it even starts, but what if it registers as a Bank? The ECB can then give it further unlimited liquidity and it can actually buy bankbonds and buy peripheral debt well beyond its limit of 440Bn.

I am confident that the ECB is thinking along those lines, kind of a Treasury in disguise, let the politicians flap about and create a European FED in disguise. I can even see Germany and France thinking along those lines in the background, it would suit them to a "T"
  • #11,262
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:28am Sep 12, 2011 2:28am
Quoting Larseg
not kicking myself yet

hehe, mental game for sure... Love it though...
Hehe...

Was a good call to wait. Still got a signal? Kicking of thy self could start soon!
  • #11,263
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:30am Sep 12, 2011 2:30am
Quoting cloggie
Greek 1yr now at 97.9%


Thats all? I'm sure Visa and MC are adjusting their models as we speak!
  • #11,264
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:32am Sep 12, 2011 2:32am
Quoting kenfen69
Hehe...

Was a good call to wait. Still got a signal? Kicking of thy self could start soon!

covered here, had several signals both long and short...

favoring the downside still though....
  • #11,265
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:33am Sep 12, 2011 2:33am
Quoting cloggie
One thing I can see happening is playing with the EFSF. The ECB is still out shopping at a rate of 20Bn a week. With the agreed bailout now the EFSF is already down to 200Bn before it even starts, but what if it registers as a Bank? The ECB can then give it further unlimited liquidity and it can actually buy bankbonds and buy peripheral debt well beyond its limit of 440Bn.
Has that been put on the table publicly?
  • #11,266
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:33am Sep 12, 2011 2:33am
Quoting cloggie
One thing I can see happening is playing with the EFSF. The ECB is still out shopping at a rate of 20Bn a week. With the agreed bailout now the EFSF is already down to 200Bn before it even starts, but what if it registers as a Bank? The ECB can then give it further unlimited liquidity and it can actually buy bankbonds and buy peripheral debt well beyond its limit of 440Bn.

I am confident that the ECB is thinking along those lines, kind of a Treasury in disguise, let the politicians flap about and create a European FED in disguise. I can even see Germany and France thinking along those lines in the background, it would suit them to a "T"
I agree that also explains why Stark resigned.

A "European FED", seem to be the solution in play and actually in my "in between lines" read even agreed on the last French-German meeting. The problem is they don't have a clue how to manage the panic short term and Greek default yet...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #11,267
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:34am Sep 12, 2011 2:34am
European bank index down 3.7% for the day. Only 4 winners on the entire Stoxx600.

Like Sissy said earlier, the only thing stopping this is a decent rumour.
  • #11,268
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:38am Sep 12, 2011 2:38am
Quoting kenfen69
Good morning, madam...3 in the morning, that is!

How's my fellow night owl?
Good morning sir ) I am fine ,closed all the shorts and waiting to see what next I got pending orders set up ,euro got exactly where I said it would 3495 now lets see)
  • #11,269
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:39am Sep 12, 2011 2:39am
Quoting kenfen69
Has that been put on the table publicly?

No it hasn't. But something is being done in the background. The EFSF only has a lifetime of 10 weeks once it is ratified. Everybody knows that 440Bn is never going to be enough. Right now the ECB cannot buy outright debt/bonds without taking the liquidity out within a week by taking cash on deposit.

The EU needs a better structure to deal with what is happening in the markets, one way of doing that is using the EFSF as an independent from the ECB, by registering it, it can buy debt without having to take liquidity out, it can also get unlimited liquidity from the ECB, as Trichet hinted in his las speech, and buy peripheral debt beyond its limit and even corporate bonds.

It would be a perfect solution for Europe.
  • #11,270
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:42am Sep 12, 2011 2:42am
Quoting sisse
I agree that also explains why Stark resigned.

Could well be. I am keeping a close ear on the rumour mill. German yields are still down on the day, French is up slightly.
  • #11,271
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:43am Sep 12, 2011 2:43am
Quoting infinitus
Good morning fellow traders,

hope you all had a nice weekend :-)


Out of my EW view, we are working on a subwave 5 (ending diagonal) of wave 3 of a wave 3.

In this subwave 5 we are probably in a subwave 4 (up), so I expect a further push down to around 3489 to 3428.

After that we should see upward pressure to around minimum 3610 to ideally around 3730


After that further downside should evolve to around 3180


Sorry for no charts - maybe later in the day
Good numbers..Markus.

Question is how far up the limits it can go to see the numbers Below?

What is your resistence level other than 1.3730...

can it go below more and if so how far is the limit?

What if this 3 of 3 may be is extended 5 C wave not A.... counting from 1.4549.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #11,272
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:43am Sep 12, 2011 2:43am
BNP down 10.5%, Socgen down 9.6% for the day.
  • #11,273
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:46am Sep 12, 2011 2:46am
Decent countertrade materialising here on EU, overnight 3549 is holding, we are itching to visit my last week's target of 3597 again here.

Markets "feel" that something or somebody is about the do or say something here this morning. The counter is either positioning for a further fall on the lack of "news" or anticipating "news". I like setups like this, gives you a good indicator of market sentiment and how the herd "thinks".

Technically a revisit of 3597 with some decent rumours can take us back to 3670. Testing 3597 with a lack of fundamental momentum will see us visit the low again.
  • #11,274
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:47am Sep 12, 2011 2:47am
Quoting cloggie
It would be a perfect solution for Europe.
It certainly sounds it.

I'm sure they're enjoying a lower Euro at the moment, otherwise that may get a mention publicly. I'm sure it would certainly steady things a bit. The fact that they could do corporates, too...

Interesting to watch. Good stuff, clogs.
  • #11,275
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:48am Sep 12, 2011 2:48am
Quoting cloggie
BNP down 10.5%, Socgen down 9.6% for the day.
Moody's back in the game. Downgrades for EU banks expected today or tomorrow (Friday rumor) so sell the rumor is already well digested and only the knee jerk reaction (with a short sell ban) left.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #11,276
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:48am Sep 12, 2011 2:48am
Quoting kenfen69
It certainly sounds it.

I'm sure they're enjoying a lower Euro at the moment, otherwise that may get a mention publicly. I'm sure it would certainly steady things a bit. The fact that they could do corporates, too...

Interesting to watch. Good stuff, clogs.

They don't mind the lower Euro, the drop in equities is hurting more though then the little drop in EU is worth it.
  • #11,277
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:48am Sep 12, 2011 2:48am
Quoting cloggie
BNP down 10.5%, Socgen down 9.6% for the day.
Ummmm...ouch.
  • #11,278
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:50am Sep 12, 2011 2:50am
Morning all...
i have the same number 3597.8 could be nice place to short if rejected
if close above the line it will most probably try for the day high 3662 ish
and that will be the second place i will be looking for shorts if rejected

Quoting cloggie
Decent countertrade materialising here on EU, overnight 3549 is holding, we are itching to visit my last week's target of 3597 again here.

Markets "feel" that something or somebody is about the do or say something here this morning. The counter is either positioning for a further fall on the lack of "news" or anticipating "news". I like setups like this, gives you a good indicator of market sentiment and how the herd "thinks".

Technically a revisit of 3597 with some decent rumours can take us back to 3670. Testing 3597 with a lack...
  • #11,279
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:50am Sep 12, 2011 2:50am
Quoting sisse
Moody's back in the game. Downgrades for EU banks expected today or tomorrow (Friday rumor) so sell the rumor is already well digested and only the knee jerk reaction (with a short sell ban) left.

sisse

Fisher later tonight with another hint of QE3 could also do it for Europe. The equity markets need something or someone to come to the rescue, without it Moody will have no choice but to act on the downgrade rumour tonight.
  • #11,280
  • Sep 12, 2011 2:50am Sep 12, 2011 2:50am
Quoting cloggie
They don't mind the lower Euro, the drop in equities is hurting more though then the little drop in EU is worth it.
Good point. A lot of blood hemorrhaging here.
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