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The Really Useless Thread

  • #11,121
  • Sep 11, 2011 2:50pm Sep 11, 2011 2:50pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
I think, on Friday it was you late in the afternoon who hinted on further gains for the USD, wasn't it?
Yep, strictly on the basis of the bonds' reaction at the close: no letting up. That suggested their ears in France didn't like the sound of the G7 chatter.
  • #11,122
  • Sep 11, 2011 3:01pm Sep 11, 2011 3:01pm
Quoting egkid
ECB President Trichet Speaks in less than 3 H
Just watch out if he brags about how well the Private Sector bond swaps are going, like a Greek guy did this weekend.

Those swaps get idiots who shouldn't have held them this long out at 21% haircuts. Given the trading in Greek bonds last week, it should be well over 50% haircuts. So if that's what he offers up, all it tells us is the bond holders can read the market quotes.
  • #11,123
  • Sep 11, 2011 3:04pm Sep 11, 2011 3:04pm
Quoting OldQuant
Yeah, but generally it's not a bad idea to fade the first panic. Back when you had to pick up the phone to do an order, a certain big grain speculator had a piece of cardboard taped to his phone, so that he would have to scrape the tape off to be able to call the floor. That gave him a little time to think.
Problem I have is that since late 08 weve been in panic / crisis mode.....isnt the definition of a BS an anamole? 08..yes.....but we all know the problems that exist now....IMO....its all BS.....Just like the disgraceful use of 9/11 ceremonies to exploit the "victims" for political gain....sad, the same ones remembering are probably the same ones who planned the shite
  • #11,124
  • Sep 11, 2011 3:12pm Sep 11, 2011 3:12pm
Quoting needpips
isnt the definition of a BS an anamole?
Yes, of course, it is. I'm using the term sardonically, because, in normal times, any one of these crazy shenanigans would qualify for the term, and now we have them du jour.

There should not be a flock of black swans by definition. But we got one.
  • #11,125
  • Sep 11, 2011 3:13pm Sep 11, 2011 3:13pm
Quoting OldQuant
Yes, of course, it is. I'm using the term sardonically, because, in normal times, any one of these crazy shenanigans would qualify for the term, and now we have them du jour.

There should not be a flock of black swans by definition. But we got one.
maybe we should start looking for white ones?
  • #11,126
  • Sep 11, 2011 3:17pm Sep 11, 2011 3:17pm
Quoting OldQuant
Just watch out if he brags about how well the Private Sector bond swaps are going, like a Greek guy did this weekend.

Those swaps get idiots who shouldn't have held them this long out at 21% haircuts. Given the trading in Greek bonds last week, it should be well over 50% haircuts. So if that's what he offers up, all it tells us is the bond holders can read the market quotes.

If the haircut was closer to current market levels, it would be a de-facto official acknowledgement that a huge chunk of European banks are insolvent, as focus would shift to the banks' holdings of paper issued by the other PIIGS, something which Josef Ackerrmann alluded to in his comments last week - which were obviously made with the intention of putting pressure on German politicians to take the unpalatable step of effectively standing behind the debt of weaker EZ members.

The 21% haircut avoids this inconvenient truth - for a few weeks/months, anyway. Yet it doesn't nothing to help Greece's debt-to-GDP dynamics onto anything that resembles a sustainable path.
  • #11,127
  • Sep 11, 2011 3:19pm Sep 11, 2011 3:19pm
Quoting needpips
maybe we should start looking for white ones?
The market would probably pay 300 pips right now for one of those.

I'm going to take a short walk before the real markets open and (maybe) the discussion of gaps begins of E/U thread.
  • #11,128
  • Sep 11, 2011 3:19pm Sep 11, 2011 3:19pm
The swiss pulled the pin...Germany will now fall on the grenade.....

Quoting gammase1
If the haircut was closer to current market levels, it would be a de-facto official acknowledgement that a huge chunk of European banks are insolvent, as focus would shift to the banks' holdings of paper issued by the other PIIGS, something which Josef Ackerrmann alluded to in his comments last week - which were obviously made with the intention of putting pressure on German politicians to take the unpalatable step of effectively standing behind the debt of weaker EZ members.

The 21% haircut avoids this inconvenient truth - for a few weeks/months,...
  • #11,129
  • Sep 11, 2011 3:31pm Sep 11, 2011 3:31pm
lol - on the money Cloggie

Quoting cloggie
Kerching.
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #11,130
  • Sep 11, 2011 3:32pm Sep 11, 2011 3:32pm
Quoting OldQuant
Yes, of course, it is. I'm using the term sardonically, because, in normal times, any one of these crazy shenanigans would qualify for the term, and now we have them du jour.

There should not be a flock of black swans by definition. But we got one.
I disagree that we have a flock of black swans (then again its irrelevant for trading to a degree).

Nothing thats going on right now hasnt already been accounted for in computer models. A True black swan event would shatter the markets within hours i.e Remember what the JPY did during the earthquake. Repatriation of assets was rationalized in hindsight but traders themselves had no idea what the hell was going on for many hours to come.

Anways, so far this crisis is playing out the many different options and scenarios that have been predicted so far, now if germany suddenly decides to say:
"LoL fuck you guys, we are done with this, bye euro"
Yeah.. that would be a black swan event of epic proportions...
  • #11,131
  • Sep 11, 2011 3:35pm Sep 11, 2011 3:35pm
I doubt Germany would leave the Euro ... I think if someone decided to leave the Euro...it would be like jettisoning dead weight.... .
Quoting Orbital
I disagree that we have a flock of black swans (then again its irrelevant for trading to a degree).

Nothing thats going on right now hasnt already been accounted for in computer models. A True black swan event would shatter the markets within hours i.e Remember what the JPY did during the earthquake. Repatriation of assets was rationalized in hindsight but traders themselves had no idea what the hell was going on for many hours to come.

Anways, so far this crisis is playing out the many different options and scenarios that have been predicted...
  • #11,132
  • Edited 4:18pm Sep 11, 2011 3:51pm | Edited 4:18pm
Oanda opens with the open of some asian markets and wellington. Generally around 12-1pm EST you'll see some movement... the spreads are a matter of liquidity. I did not see any 20/30 pip spreads on EU with my live feed... it's been 10 pips.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/why/spreads/recent


3567 low on the bid so far...
  • #11,133
  • Sep 11, 2011 4:22pm Sep 11, 2011 4:22pm
Quoting Larseg
fuck it ill give it to yall

http://www.damnlol.com/pics/568/2182...e543246e66.gif
LOL that is awesome
  • #11,134
  • Sep 11, 2011 4:24pm Sep 11, 2011 4:24pm
Quoting Monroe
Oanda opens with the open of some asian markets and wellington. Generally around 12-1pm EST you'll see some movement... the spreads are a matter of liquidity. I did not see any 20/30 pip spreads on EU with my live feed... it's been 10 pips.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/why/spreads/recent


3567 low on the bid so far...
I was seeing 20 for quite some time on the Practice platform. I also saw, just now, as I was taking that Java-PoS- - which - won't - play - nice - with - Windows - Z-Order down, the Practice offer got a tick below IB's bid. Momentarily, but highly unusual. Must have been retail selling or stops just then.
  • #11,135
  • Sep 11, 2011 4:28pm Sep 11, 2011 4:28pm
Quoting OldQuant
I was seeing 20 for quite some time on the Practice platform. I also saw, just now, as I was taking that Java-PoS- - which - won't - play - nice - with - Windows - Z-Order down, the Practice offer got a tick below IB's bid. Momentarily, but highly unusual. Must have been retail selling or stops just then.
the demo/practice platform is different then the live feed... even during normal hours it can be ticks off. the most unusual thing I've seen was movement at 12am on a friday night a few weeks ago...
  • #11,136
  • Sep 11, 2011 4:32pm Sep 11, 2011 4:32pm
And were back to work,


morning all
  • #11,137
  • Sep 11, 2011 4:46pm Sep 11, 2011 4:46pm
Quoting Larseg
And were back to work,


morning all
Morning bro
  • #11,138
  • Sep 11, 2011 5:07pm Sep 11, 2011 5:07pm
Why Hush Hush
Inserted Video
  • #11,139
  • Sep 11, 2011 5:17pm Sep 11, 2011 5:17pm
have to go i got work early
B Smart and Watch PA behavior
  • #11,140
  • Sep 11, 2011 5:21pm Sep 11, 2011 5:21pm
Quoting egkid
have to go i got work early
B Smart and Watch PA behavior

later,
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