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The Really Useless Thread

  • #10,961
  • Sep 9, 2011 2:44pm Sep 9, 2011 2:44pm
Quoting infinitus
Ohoh.........

do not burn your fingers :-)
but on the other hand:


that is what a sustained crash makes: people keep on "Hopeium"
  • #10,962
  • Sep 9, 2011 2:48pm Sep 9, 2011 2:48pm
Quoting infinitus
but on the other hand:


that is what a sustained crash makes: people keep on "Hopeium"
I have a cutoff....its an Idea that I have based on 3 main points....can I be wrong...yes....being wrong is ok with me, yet, I have had several ideas I have not acted on and they turned out favorably....

I thnk QE3 is a lock, it will rally...then fail terribly
I think the chart "looks" to a confluence of support in this immediate area
I think that the sentiment is too bearish for the Euro and realistically....I think the DXY will Double btm

I dont need to be right, yet.....I might
  • #10,963
  • Sep 9, 2011 2:58pm Sep 9, 2011 2:58pm
yup, i know what you mean Cloggie, i am on it.. Demo account it is next week
Quoting cloggie
Done on Cable, HK, see what I am talking about keeping those trades going? This would have been a 200 pip trade for you.
  • #10,964
  • Sep 9, 2011 2:59pm Sep 9, 2011 2:59pm
Quoting egkid
I don't know how it say it in English
In English, you would say "satisfy my craving."
  • #10,965
  • Sep 9, 2011 3:00pm Sep 9, 2011 3:00pm
Quoting OldQuant
If I understand you, then, you believe that the problems with the financial side of things is itself not fatal to the EUR, and that there is sufficient political and popular will (perhaps fear of the alternatives, perhaps genuine foresight) to sustain the Union until and then after economic prosperity again begins to show in the core nations.

Is that correct?
Now, the problems with the financial side are not only fatal for the euro but probably for the world economy in the current circumstances. My point is that the euro is not cause of the problems but the scapegoat of the real macroeconomic and banking problems in Europe.

Yes, there is more than enough political capital not because of political reasons but economic ones (the cost of leaving the euro is too high right now with one foot in to the abyss and the other into double dip).

On the popular side, there is indifference (big problem across the EU.... apathy and status quo are the norm) in the 315 milllion people under the euro that I must admit is changing lately especially in Germany but is far from the majority.

Sadly but true, Europe doesn't have a change in the long run with 27 old, small fishes, free riding and killing each other (in economic terms). I am convinced that the EU will transform, evolve and adapt in the future, in what form? I don't know. in one country? don't know. Will be a single currency? well more than probable. Maybe not the Euro but the economic and social convergence will lead to that sooner (right now with the euro) or later in whatever form.

In simple words, yes wait for the next economic cycle up, and we will see the results. We may not like them and I am sure they wont be perfect but they will be there.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #10,966
  • Sep 9, 2011 3:01pm Sep 9, 2011 3:01pm
Quoting needpips
I have a cutoff....its an Idea that I have based on 3 main points....can I be wrong...yes....being wrong is ok with me, yet, I have had several ideas I have not acted on and they turned out favorably....

I thnk QE3 is a lock, it will rally...then fail terribly
I think the chart "looks" to a confluence of support in this immediate area
I think that the sentiment is too bearish for the Euro and realistically....I think the DXY will Double btm

I dont need to be right, yet.....I might
Hi Needpips,

regarding the sentiment:


we had sentiment readings of over 90-97% EUR bulls over the last weeks/months.

Such highly one-sided sentiment levels are not washed out in one week. That will need more time, more drop, more pain. It will be over, when most here do not spend a single thought on going long LOL
  • #10,967
  • Sep 9, 2011 3:05pm Sep 9, 2011 3:05pm
Quoting sisse
In simple words, yes wait for the next economic cycle up we will see the results. We may not like it and I am sure the wont be perfect but they will be there.
Thank you. Your point of view is greatly valued by all here, certainly not least of which: me.

For general reference, off of this subject directly, the DX for the week:
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  • #10,968
  • Sep 9, 2011 3:06pm Sep 9, 2011 3:06pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi Needpips,

regarding the sentiment:


we had sentiment readings of over 90-97% EUR bulls over the last weeks/months.

Such highly one-sided sentiment levels are not washed out in one week. That will need more time, more drop, more pain. It will be over, when most here do not spend a single thought on going long LOL
Yes...very true....But Im also intertwining this with my 20 trading day theory...10 / 10... have noticed almost a see saw of long vs short during a month....its not a perfect theory, yet its part of my pool of intuitive readinds of the market scope....kind of like how EWT can seemingly have 5 wave of 5 waves.....extension after extension....(gold for instance)....Im really trying to compile a list of "NOTS"

Personally, I have whittled away the if then yes....they are too many....C, its the "if then NOTS" that I have seen over and over....
  • #10,969
  • Sep 9, 2011 3:09pm Sep 9, 2011 3:09pm
Quoting OldQuant
Thank you. Your point of view is greatly valued by all here, certainly not least of which: me.

For general reference, off of this subject directly, the DX for the week:
Thnks mate. In any case, I overstayed with way too many beers already waiting for the close . ES hold daily Support .... I am done ...good weekend

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #10,970
  • Sep 9, 2011 3:09pm Sep 9, 2011 3:09pm
Quoting needpips
Yes...very true....But Im also intertwining this with my 20 trading day theory...10 / 10... have noticed almost a see saw of long vs short during a month....its not a perfect theory, yet its part of my pool of intuitive readinds of the market scope....kind of like how EWT can seemingly have 5 wave of 5 waves.....extension after extension....(gold for instance)....Im really trying to compile a list of "NOTS"

Personally, I have whittled away the if then yes....they are too many....C, its the "if then NOTS" that I have seen over...
The if then NOT list....is pretty concise.....Im working on it...Im trying to C if I can keep it at 10....call it the ten commandments of 4x....got a nice ring to it
  • #10,971
  • Sep 9, 2011 3:13pm Sep 9, 2011 3:13pm
Quoting sisse
Thnks mate. In any case, I overstayed with way too many beers already waiting for the close . ES hold daily Support .... I am done ...good weekend

sisse
I was watching ES, too, and biding time. Prost!
  • #10,972
  • Sep 9, 2011 3:22pm Sep 9, 2011 3:22pm
It's easy to talk when your dog isn't in the ring, so this isn't a trade rec or even a hold post, but with the momentum in the less emotional deep markets or averages (bonds, DX, etc), the CDS and the money market indications of stress, I'd see the weekend event risk as favoring the short side.

Your mileage may vary. Have a good weekend.

EDIT: And last night, I jokingly said that a Zevon video's view count of a million plus would be this thread's view count around Christmas: Wipe your butts with that one; a 600K handle already. Try early October at the latest.
  • #10,973
  • Sep 9, 2011 3:27pm Sep 9, 2011 3:27pm
Food for thought

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  • #10,974
  • Sep 9, 2011 3:29pm Sep 9, 2011 3:29pm
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  • #10,975
  • Sep 9, 2011 3:33pm Sep 9, 2011 3:33pm
maybe this:
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  • #10,976
  • Sep 9, 2011 3:48pm Sep 9, 2011 3:48pm
Quoting infinitus
maybe this:
I speculate 1.40-ish...urs would 1.3825-ish
  • #10,977
  • Sep 9, 2011 4:07pm Sep 9, 2011 4:07pm
Quoting needpips
I speculate 1.40-ish...urs would 1.3825-ish
that is right :-)

3825 is the area of a wave 4 of one lesser degree


To reach 1.40 the count would require, that we had already ended the wave 5, but momentum analysis does not support this view.

Watch momentum with Awesome oscillator on 2h TF for the whole move down from 1.45 and on 40min TF for the move from 4150.

It clearly shows that we might have finished a subwave 3 of wave 3
  • #10,978
  • Sep 9, 2011 4:18pm Sep 9, 2011 4:18pm
Quoting infinitus
that is right :-)

3825 is the area of a wave 4 of one lesser degree


To reach 1.40 the count would require, that we had already ended the wave 5, but momentum analysis does not support this view.

Watch momentum with Awesome oscillator on 2h TF for the whole move down from 1.45 and on 40min TF for the move from 4150.

It clearly shows that we might have finished a subwave 3 of wave 3
will do thx
  • #10,979
  • Sep 9, 2011 4:36pm Sep 9, 2011 4:36pm
Quoting Venice
LOL... oh, that makes so much more sense. Universal Power Supply.
It wouldn't of done any good anyhow since the Internet didn't work without power. Even the AT&T wireless services were down across all of san Diego county. Couldn't use my airfare on my laptop. Couldn't text or make a phone call. Unless there is some sort of direct satellite connection to I'm not aware of I was fucked.

Luckily I had heavy shorts on EU/ESek/Egbp and my swissy plays plus a few other exotics

Made a ton of profit while sitting around in the dark

  • #10,980
  • Sep 9, 2011 4:43pm Sep 9, 2011 4:43pm
trying to trade like ken...
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Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
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