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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #3,381
  • Sep 9, 2011 10:14am Sep 9, 2011 10:14am
Quoting Evak
Hey Bandung,

Went pass the 3xib sitting on 3750 (4xIB).. nice. I got my hedge up just on a limit at 3700 while still holding my shorts..

Note that monthly POC & VPOC too, rather spot on for the POC..

http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/8...3sep092220.gif

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i already close all my short @3750..
look like wanna go to 3500
...
  • #3,382
  • Sep 9, 2011 10:56am Sep 9, 2011 10:56am
Quoting Evak
Hey Bandung,

Went pass the 3xib sitting on 3750 (4xIB).. nice. I got my hedge up just on a limit at 3700 while still holding my shorts..

Note that monthly POC & VPOC too, rather spot on for the POC..

http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/8...3sep092220.gif

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Evak what indi are you using? It apears that Im using the same one, but I cant seem to get any more than 6 pov/vpoc (recent) lines at one time, Im using ay-MarketProfileDWM.v1.31rev1. Any thoughts?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,383
  • Sep 9, 2011 11:17am Sep 9, 2011 11:17am
Quoting mzvega
Evak what indi are you using? It apears that Im using the same one, but I cant seem to get any more than 6 pov/vpoc (recent) lines at one time, Im using ay-MarketProfileDWM.v1.31rev1. Any thoughts?
I will have to set both the;
Lookback & ExtendPocline to 10 which is my default...

could that be your problem ?
  • #3,384
  • Sep 9, 2011 11:25am Sep 9, 2011 11:25am
Quoting Evak
I will have to set both the;
Lookback & ExtendPocline to 10 which is my default...

could that be your problem ?

It sure was!!!!! Thanx! I had posted that vpoc 1.3622 awhile back, and it been driving me crazy how I lost it. Again, thanx for the quick fix
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,385
  • Sep 9, 2011 11:43am Sep 9, 2011 11:43am
Quoting bandung

i already close all my short @3750..
look like wanna go to 3500
It's heading towards the VPOC as we speak...crikey!!!

Long live MP
  • #3,386
  • Sep 9, 2011 12:00pm Sep 9, 2011 12:00pm
Quoting Evak
It's heading towards the VPOC as we speak...crikey!!!

Long live MP
Its so hard not to love this stuff!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,387
  • Sep 9, 2011 1:49pm Sep 9, 2011 1:49pm
Quoting tgwhbb
update, entry was premature, but still holding. reason's marked on chart. Plus 1200 is around resistance trend line. ES down 4 points since screen shot taken...watching now to see if value builds below 1192 area for confirmation. Otherwise I'll likely close out.
update...still holding this trade...will keep for a longer term, attached chart is where I think S&P is headed, 1040, 1000, 900

please excuse the redimentary profile, but for longer term charts my broker's feed does not seem right...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2011-09-09 at 11.41.37 AM.png Size: 56 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #3,388
  • Sep 9, 2011 2:11pm Sep 9, 2011 2:11pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
free your mind and read this:
"7H15 M3554G3 53RV35 7O PR0V3 H0W 0UR M1ND5 C4N D0 4M4Z1NG 7H1NG5! 1MPR3551V3 7H1NG5! 1N 7H3 B3G1NN1NG 17 WA5 H4RD BU7 N0W, 0N 7H15 LIN3 Y0UR M1ND 1S R34D1NG 17 4U70M471C4LLY W17H0U7 3V3N 7H1NK1NG 4B0U7 17, B3 PROUD! 0NLY C34R741N P30PL3 C4N R3AD 7H15."

looks like i was the only one who bought this week...
  • #3,389
  • Sep 9, 2011 3:14pm Sep 9, 2011 3:14pm
Hi guys, just been going through part of this thread, and so far it's has some great information. Just wanted thank you guys for such great input... now it'll only take me about a week to read it all.
  • #3,390
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:44am Sep 12, 2011 5:44am
Quoting bandung

i already close all my short @3750..
look like wanna go to 3500
Lol I shouldn't have told u that it was gona pause at 3750...
  • #3,391
  • Edited 8:00am Sep 12, 2011 6:54am | Edited 8:00am
Quoting Evak
Lol I shouldn't have told u that it was gona pause at 3750...
haha... my first target is 3850 because I thought it good spike base on daily chart and will not broke easily.. but when I see the first hour of london had a good volume I change my tp to 3750...

so your 3750 pause add 100 pips more to my 3 positions... I should thank you
...
  • #3,392
  • Edited 7:31am Sep 12, 2011 7:16am | Edited 7:31am
Just a quick take on what has transpired so far..

If one were to look at VSA price action alone today leading to UK opening, u would have been confuse by what 30mins is telling u & what 5mins is not telling, Basically is conflict... well at least for me. Simply put there is not structure...

Now lets talk about value trading instead.

1: after the Friday sell offs & with inventory short leading up to today NY lower distribution lack of excess & low volume (do check your volume) suggest more downside to clear or at least for an excess to be distributed lower.

2: Gap down prior to TK opening, was rather high volume today with opening test on a double top during A & B period. By J period the attempted direction was rejected, right at 3500 & the reversal momentum show the change that is to come. We have an excess. With a P formation there is this hint of short covering here.

3: UK opening within value just below TK control price, Therefore the immediate reference is the TK VAL. The point here is to predicate what TK acceptance of value & for UK to continue to auction within this values & to complete the bell...

4: Upper reference here is the US control price, but do bear in mind the gap here which could cause certain amount or anxiety. At least for me.. But my exposure have been cleared on 3650. My entry was on the pull back after UK open during the C period.

5: Now inventory is very long leading to US pit session opening....

http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/976...8sep122013.gif

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  • #3,393
  • Edited 10:04am Sep 12, 2011 9:38am | Edited 10:04am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting Evak

5: Now inventory is very long leading to US pit session opening....
yes but overnight inventory is short, right? it traded below previous close of us session. it's a strange situation, haw we are gonna interpret this? previous to us sesion the daily prefile looked like a neutral day right? the only option we have for us session is to be kept as neutral day or to be transformed in double distribution kind of? vsa at this point is confuse too but inclining a little to long side.
  • #3,394
  • Sep 12, 2011 10:44am Sep 12, 2011 10:44am
Yes it is short, BUT i am referring to the previous session inventory rather the then the so call over-nite inventory.

So previous UK session to the TK settle is long inventory. That is how i treat each session in Forex. This issue have been discuss b4 by Mzvega too in one of her earlier post. In addition, this rally since Asia session leading all the way up to US. Is hard to ignore it as still short, so to speak.

As regards to auction process. Even if the inventory is short if u are taking both the TK/UK combine as an over-nite to US. U have to be aware of where the US opens relative to the very balance overnite profile & not forgetting the range extension already attempted both ways.

So any attempted directions towards the extreme could have higher odd of being knock out & have price gravitated back to control. So the rotational aspect here cannot be ignored.

http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/5...1sep122336.gif

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  • #3,395
  • Sep 12, 2011 12:50pm Sep 12, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting Evak
So any attempted directions towards the extreme could have higher odd of being knock out & have price gravitated back to control. So the rotational aspect here cannot be ignored.
Great analysis, Evak. I always enjoy reading (and re-reading) your commentary.

Since you (and others here) trade other markets (other than Forex) using MP/AMT/TPO, where volume is true and market hours are easier to apply the IB phenomenon to, etc, I wonder if you would be able to make a short list, a checklist of sorts, outlining how you apply the TPO (Session or Daily) to looking for a trade? I'd sure appreciate it. Doesn't have to be long, just something like this maybe:

 

  1. Session TPO
  2. London session begins, look to TK session VAL and POC and REs, if any
  3. Did London open in TK's VAL?
  4. Did London open above/below the TK POC?
  5. Wait for London IB to complete (1 hr)
  6. Determine what "day type" we might be in based on...

Something like this would be helpful for those of us who only trade Spot Forex. I have been using a demo ThinkOrSwim account for better volume on the futures currencies.

Kind Regards,
Neo

Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #3,396
  • Edited 2:14pm Sep 12, 2011 1:36pm | Edited 2:14pm
Quoting NeoRio
Great analysis, Evak. I always enjoy reading (and re-reading) your commentary.

Since you (and others here) trade other markets (other than Forex) using MP/AMT/TPO, where volume is true and market hours are easier to apply the IB phenomenon to, etc, I wonder if you would be able to make a short list, a checklist of sorts, outlining how you apply the TPO (Session or Daily) to looking for a trade? I'd sure appreciate it. Doesn't have to be long, just something like this maybe:[list=1][*]Session TPO[*]London session begins, look to TK session...
Maybe this might help.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post4514678

"Mind over markets", "markets in profie" both have detailed checklists

edit: added same attachment
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market Profile1.pdf   199 KB | 1,432 downloads
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,397
  • Edited 7:01am Sep 13, 2011 6:48am | Edited 7:01am
Quoting NeoRio
Great analysis, Evak. I always enjoy reading (and re-reading) your commentary.

Since you (and others here) trade other markets (other than Forex) using MP/AMT/TPO, where volume is true and market hours are easier to apply the IB phenomenon to, etc, I wonder if you would be able to make a short list, a checklist of sorts, outlining how you apply the TPO (Session or Daily) to looking for a trade? I'd sure appreciate it. Doesn't have to be long, just something like this maybe:
[list=1][*]Session TPO[*]London session begins, look to TK session...
Is a broad question as even for me MP is still my 2ndary tool till i solidify my skills to it. so to speak. Mzvega share of CQG Q&A i actually read several times already. Very useful info.

I will try my best to explain it. Any experience MP regulars here pls feel free to add to it...

In a nutshell. I frame it under 2 groups when analyzing; in MP is known as market generated (MG) & developing (DEV). So previous day is the MG & current day is the DEV. So now we have a context (MG info) to work on the current dev.

Daily chart.
This provide my essential radar for the day. My main focus are only the current & previous day levels includes HLC,VA, VAH+VAL, POC. This essentially let me know where are the trade locations extremes, unfair levels, or if I were to initiate trade within fair levels, I would only look for pullback into VA hi or low or POC. So even with session profile, is good to know where u are when u start threading on session profile.

Session chart
Mainly for shorterm trade, the crux of this session is the inventory. Besides all the common levels like VAH+VAL, POC, I am very specific of referencing ALL the session high & lows for the previous & current day. This also applies to my daily profile. Last is the all important 50pip increment round numbers.

The IBR opening is the key to using this session chart & there after I also looking at price action specific to how price auction up or down, opening price & how it holds & so on.. too myriad of nuances to say the least.

I will simply explain it using today chart in bullet point

TK session.

 

  1. opens close to previous day fair value & below DVAH
  2. previous US inventory is neutral
  3. IB suggest an opening test on reference of previous European session POC, volume was above avg. Price have been correcting since Aussie session.
  4. Potential trade opportunities classify as a value area trade on pullback low..

Frankfurt session opening. I do monitor both the frankfurt & UK opening. As this is know as the European wave hours as long as frankfurt have adverse effects during opening like today. So a good example here to illustrate.

 

  1. Opening above VAH of previous day daily profile & also above DVAH.
  2. Inventory is long for TK.
  3. IB suggest an opening reverse rejection as it attempt to take out previous highs & fail.
  4. TK session poor hi also suggest potential higher extreme test.
  5. UK session continues with Frankfurt reversal momentum as it attempt to trade back up to Frankfurt's opening IB but fai & continue to RE downwards. (c period in chart)
  6. Price headed down to form a tail right of the previous US reference low & previous day VAH. previous US session poor low have found an excess.

Now price is above VAH & approaching DVAH as we speak. As it approaching headwinds. Any pullback low would point to the low of TK as reference. Note that TK IBR was trespass down & back up after UK opens. But with this current trend which is mainly down. upside potential would have to be view with caution. I gauge trend by using 50,100 & 200 SMA.

So in a nutshell without context (MG) is hard to get around using MP as it develops.

http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/8...7sep131922.gif

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  • #3,398
  • Sep 13, 2011 12:34pm Sep 13, 2011 12:34pm
Quoting Evak
...I will try my best to explain it...
All good...one just need practise...I use SD and multy tf to track, as per my ability, sm...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #3,399
  • Edited 4:40am Sep 14, 2011 3:19am | Edited 4:40am
(I will refer Frankfurt session as European)

Again another European open instead which see price continuation when UK open.

After yesterday European session reversal & rally. US session have a very whipsaw auction which see price take out & back up again around euro high & eventually falters. The selling tail in euro session provide the hint of a potential failure to rise on US session auction.

Trade opportunities here as the weakness carries forward to TK session which see TK attempt to take out yesterday daily VAH & then reverse, also can be seen as a opening rejection reverse as session opens. The price dip on a rather (edit>)unusual Asia session today with destination to Monday POC.

Again the European open momentum lead the way like yesterday with a Franky fake onto TK low, stop right on Monday's daily POC (just below round number of 3600) to finish off the TK bad low. Price rallies.


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  • #3,400
  • Sep 14, 2011 4:59am Sep 14, 2011 4:59am
Quoting Evak
(I will refer Frankfurt session as European)

Again another European open instead which see price continuation when UK open.

After yesterday European session reversal & rally. US session have a very whipsaw auction which see price take out & back up again around euro high & eventually falters. The selling tail in euro session provide the hint of a potential failure to rise on US session auction.

Trade opportunities here as the weakness carries forward to TK session which see TK attempt to take out yesterday daily VAH & then reverse, also...
3750 kave..?
I bet this time will pause ...
...
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