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Fail Better

  • #1,721
  • Sep 7, 2011 4:18pm Sep 7, 2011 4:18pm
Hi Tom,

I just want to make sure of choosing the RIGHT level. Maybe it will helpful to others as well.

I have attached USDCAD and marked two levels on it.

Orange (0.9820) is taken rather from D1 - it has more touches on this timeframe.

Green (0.9794) is derived from H1, it has multiple touches from the inverse side but it is not so clear on D1.

I have chosen the latter because of immediate, multiple inverse touches plus possible bottom of the bucket pattern. Apart from that I think to myself that it is better to place bid on level, which is further from the price.(Provided that two levels are of more or less the same importance)
If I am wrong (I'm bidding green line)and the price will bounce from the first, I won't take simply any position but If I wanted to place bid on orange level and the price would bounce from green line I would have to take loss.
I hope I made myself clear

Is the green level better to place bid in your opinion?

Cheers,
Christopher
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad 07.09.2011.gif Size: 31 KB
Trade what you see, not what you expect. BE LIKE WATER MY FRIEND.
  • #1,722
  • Sep 8, 2011 7:01am Sep 8, 2011 7:01am
Quoting Baniu
Hi Tom,

I just want to make sure of choosing the RIGHT level. Maybe it will helpful to others as well.

I have attached USDCAD and marked two levels on it.

Orange (0.9820) is taken rather from D1 - it has more touches on this timeframe.

Green (0.9794) is derived from H1, it has multiple touches from the inverse side but it is not so clear on D1.

I have chosen the latter because of immediate, multiple inverse touches plus possible bottom of the bucket pattern. Apart from that I think to myself that it is better to place bid on level,...
I prefer the lower green level. There is a greater presence of resistance there.
  • #1,723
  • Sep 9, 2011 12:42am Sep 9, 2011 12:42am
Quoting Cze
EURAUD has a nice level at 1.3127
I was watching it yesterday. But I pulled my order when we stalled before the level. Didn't like the way it moved into it. Would have preffered a faster move into the level.

http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/6894/euraud.th.png

I have a new buy limit order on EURAUD in place @ 1.2927 for today
  • #1,724
  • Sep 9, 2011 12:58am Sep 9, 2011 12:58am
Is anyone looking at the EURUSD for a short rounded retrace?

Grant
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURUSD (Daily) 30_12_2010 - 9_09_2011.png Size: 58 KB
“Make everything as simple as possible, but no simpler.” – Albert Einstein
  • #1,725
  • Sep 9, 2011 1:29am Sep 9, 2011 1:29am
Watching Cable - daily level, which is forming a spider on H1.

Would also be a trendline break if it heads south............
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: cable1.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #1,726
  • Sep 9, 2011 1:37am Sep 9, 2011 1:37am
Quoting gc7
Is anyone looking at the EURUSD for a short rounded retrace?

Grant
Hi Grant, seems like a decent level, i'm watching that too...
  • #1,727
  • Sep 9, 2011 7:37am Sep 9, 2011 7:37am
thanks Tom for this excellent thread. I have read half of the posts and would like to attend the webinars from now on. Would you mind if you add me to the group? my email is omidlk AT yahoo.com

thanks.
  • #1,728
  • Sep 11, 2011 5:45am Sep 11, 2011 5:45am
Hi guys, i am new to this thread and just finish reading it. I believe i read somewhere in this thread that Tom strongly advise against moving S/L to BE during the trade. I might miss some of his points, but what solution exactly does he propose for moving S/L? Thanks
  • #1,729
  • Sep 11, 2011 7:58am Sep 11, 2011 7:58am
Quoting esbatu
Hi guys, i am new to this thread and just finish reading it. I believe i read somewhere in this thread that Tom strongly advise against moving S/L to BE during the trade. I might miss some of his points, but what solution exactly does he propose for moving S/L? Thanks
Some people like to just enter and trail on every trade to see how far price will go and they hope to hit a runner. Rather than debate the merits of this, I would simply say that it feels too much like a "hope and pray" strategy to me and I prefer to be proactive.

So ;

- If I don't have D1 bias or I DO have D1 bias but I am trading AGAINST It (e.g. buying at the ATR and an H1 level while I think from the D1 that prices are going to be heading lower), I tend to exit the whole position at the FTA

- If I have D1 bias and I am trading WITH it, then I tend to scale out half the position at the FTA and half at the second TA. (TA stands for "trouble area". After I am out, I can assess and get back in as the market moves accordingly (use the "step approach"). From time to time, with D1 bias I will simply enter and trail and if I do so, I tend to put a stop behind each THRUST CANDLE that closes above/below the next TA and run it this way.

Tom
  • #1,730
  • Sep 11, 2011 12:12pm Sep 11, 2011 12:12pm
Sorry but Im new to this thread, where I can get the link to the Sunday webminar?
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #1,731
  • Sep 11, 2011 3:33pm Sep 11, 2011 3:33pm
Quoting BeLikeWater
Sorry but Im new to this thread, where I can get the link to the Sunday webminar?
You just have to send your e-mail address to Tom and he will add you to the list. On Sundays (around 18:15 UK time) you will receive message with description how to take part in the webinar. It takes place usually from 18:30 to 20:00 UK time.

Cheers
Trade what you see, not what you expect. BE LIKE WATER MY FRIEND.
  • #1,732
  • Sep 11, 2011 7:50pm Sep 11, 2011 7:50pm
Quoting the_wizard
Some people like to just enter and trail on every trade to see how far price will go and they hope to hit a runner. Rather than debate the merits of this, I would simply say that it feels too much like a "hope and pray" strategy to me and I prefer to be proactive.
Thanks Tom
  • #1,733
  • Sep 12, 2011 1:33am Sep 12, 2011 1:33am
could someone kindly share please? I crashed out as it was starting and couldn't re-enter again.

Thanks.
  • #1,734
  • Sep 12, 2011 11:44am Sep 12, 2011 11:44am
Tom was mentioning the correlation of the above two.

Pretty clear here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,735
  • Sep 13, 2011 1:47am Sep 13, 2011 1:47am
Somebody mentioned a skype chat room earlier in this thread, how can I get access?

Thanks in advance.
  • #1,736
  • Sep 13, 2011 11:50pm Sep 13, 2011 11:50pm


There are certain factors I look for to place the odds in my favour that price will bounce. These include but are not limited too;

1) making sure the level is significant s/r (preferably with confluence - particularly the ATR)

 2) that price would make sense bouncing when I consider the highest timeframe (the D1)

3) that the level not been hit too many times (particularly from the same side) in recent activity

4) the the level is not washed

5) that time has elapsed between the breakout and the return (I use the "rounded retest" on the H1 to evaluate this)

6) that price is not bouncing just ahead of it and then returning to it,

7) that price is moving with some velocity but that the velocity has not just started from the middle of nowhere on no news

These are the major points. The words in italics are ones I find hard to systematise. People are always asking me for a set of rules. "How much time between the break and retest? How far does price have to bounce for you to cancel your order?" etc etc. I am not a rules based trader. Things either look right to me or they do not and this is purely based on screen time.

Hi Tom and Other Members,
I would like to clarify your previous post sharing your trade criteria. My apologies if this has been answered before, I must have missed it and truly appreciate if anyone could share the post please.

(A) On point (2), price will "make sense" when bouncing on D1 timefrime. Could you kindly shed some light on this point? I notice price may at times poke through very significant ppz. It adds on the challenge if there are a few ppz. But I also notice price may likely to bounce at fib50 and/or fib61 overlapping with ppz (on D1).
I have difficulties setting accurate touch trade in fact.

(B) On point (7), price is moving with velocity but that the velocity has not just started from the middle of no where on no news:-

- What does velocity mean here? It is the size of the candles? Or the steepness of the trend within the specific range (from one swing point to another) ? Of the volume being traded on these candles within the range?

- For a "velocity", where should it start to be deemed ideal? Is it from one swing point to your intended entry point (ppz)? Will you consider the "velocity" void if it starts from "middle" on no news?

- If the "velocity" starts from the "middle" on no news, does it imply price will likely to poke through the coming ppz identified?


This is my first post in FF, I am sorry if these questions are apparent or stupid. But thank you very much for any kind inputs.
  • #1,737
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:32am Sep 14, 2011 1:32am
Is this an example of a swing failure pattern not working?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,738
  • Sep 14, 2011 2:24am Sep 14, 2011 2:24am
Quoting underrated
Is this an example of a swing failure pattern not working?

That's definitely an SFP. Price broke through the previous lowest low and closed above it. But keep in mind that we don't use the SFP to enter into trades on H1. We just use them on D1 to determine our bias for the day. Don't know whether you would consider that a failed SFP...
  • #1,739
  • Sep 14, 2011 4:10am Sep 14, 2011 4:10am
Yes thats swing failure pattern, but it certainly didnt fail, look what happened to price in the hours following it.

Quoting underrated
Is this an example of a swing failure pattern not working?
  • #1,740
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:36pm Sep 14, 2011 1:36pm
Quoting underrated
Is this an example of a swing failure pattern not working?
I'd say that worked quite nicely.
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