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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #3,361
  • Edited 4:04am Sep 8, 2011 3:49am | Edited 4:04am
Quoting Bilstein
I'm glad it works out for ya! Sent you a PM about the VWAP range estimation.

More ideas in the works!
Cheers!
Looks good Bilstein & it makes sense to. I wonder what more is up your sleeves. I be checking out to make sense out of it if time allows...

Hope you & Mzvega can share more screen shots with some initial ideas on stuffs like strategy & so on & more importantly how u visualize it. I be looking forward to it.

tks
  • #3,362
  • Sep 8, 2011 4:00am Sep 8, 2011 4:00am
Just my quick take base on basic reference point.

Session chart have shown the lack of interest off TK high or VAH of day profile during UK open. But we are still threading withing value off yesterdays balance day & also price seems to find support off POC for now. so I am cautions.

Yesterdays day session also show rejection off VAH area of Tuesday. Odds are market is looking down for now.

No RE yet but if any IB break lower would see downward pressure to potential of up to 3xIB & or to 1.4000, which would also be Tuesday's lower distribution control.

http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/7...6sep081654.gif

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  • #3,363
  • Sep 8, 2011 8:15am Sep 8, 2011 8:15am
Quoting mima
...EU is developing...Distribution is coming....in unspecified time when some news somewhere in the world tip the development.
Here is :

Euro Declines as ECB’s Trichet Says ‘Downside Risks’ to Economy...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #3,364
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:58am Sep 8, 2011 10:58am
Quoting tgwhbb
took an initial short on the S&P as shown,
update, entry was premature, but still holding. reason's marked on chart. Plus 1200 is around resistance trend line. ES down 4 points since screen shot taken...watching now to see if value builds below 1192 area for confirmation. Otherwise I'll likely close out.
Attached Image
Change is the only constant
  • #3,365
  • Edited 11:03am Sep 8, 2011 11:03am | Edited 11:03am
Quoting mzvega
Sounds reasonable. A small part of me wants to think we still may go slightly lower first. The imbalance (excess) seems to be coming from above. It just seems it looks like it needs to balance. the same amount of selling excess should be countered with the same amount of buying excess imo unless the auctions not over. Lets see how it goes.
so looks like my target was too agressive

What I really like is today's NY B period which went to complete Tuesday's NY extension before reversing. To the PIP pratically, then reversed and failed at the overnight low. Now it looks like its time to continue down...

long live MP
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Change is the only constant
  • #3,366
  • Sep 8, 2011 12:00pm Sep 8, 2011 12:00pm
Quoting tgwhbb
update, entry was premature, but still holding. reason's marked on chart. Plus 1200 is around resistance trend line. ES down 4 points since screen shot taken...watching now to see if value builds below 1192 area for confirmation. Otherwise I'll likely close out.
Nice bro, I been trading ES for the last 2 days since i came back...I took a long just now with that short overnite inventory. My reference was that spike zone & that anomaly u mentioned too.

The spike occurred an hour before NY pip session during the electronic session. With NY pit opens under value to the over-nite balance market. I jump in after price retrace back to open & enter on the B period. Now price could be heading up to 1202 to tank.

Nice to see some1 trade ES here. Just wondering which broker are u using to trade it? I use to have it on fxpro but now i am using TOS....

http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/2...9sep090055.gif

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  • #3,367
  • Sep 8, 2011 1:08pm Sep 8, 2011 1:08pm
Quoting tgwhbb
so looks like my target was too agressive

What I really like is today's NY B period which went to complete Tuesday's NY extension before reversing. To the PIP pratically, then reversed and failed at the overnight low. Now it looks like its time to continue down...

long live MP
AMT/MP I just love this stuff!
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,368
  • Sep 8, 2011 1:13pm Sep 8, 2011 1:13pm
I also wanted to share something I read awhile back(last time I checked it, wasnt against the law to read in my country).

Pretty much traders can be divided into two classes- those who buy on a rising price trend/sell a falling one, called "price-led" traders, and those who buy a falling trend/sell a rising one, called "valued-led" Two very different mentalities. Understanding the type of trader you are and being consistent is very important. Value-led traders buy low (below value), sell high (above value), price-led traders buy high(above value) sell higher.
imo forex traders are trend followers "price-led", as AMT/MP tend to be more "value-led". Until I decided/understood the type of trader I choose to be, I get less conflicting signals. Two different trading mentalities, trying to do both can make me feel schizophrenic.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,369
  • Sep 8, 2011 1:44pm Sep 8, 2011 1:44pm
Quoting Evak
Nice bro, I been trading ES for the last 2 days since i came back...I took a long just now with that short overnite inventory. My reference was that spike zone & that anomaly u mentioned too.

The spike occurred an hour before NY pip session during the electronic session. With NY pit opens under value to the over-nite balance market. I jump in after price retrace back to open & enter on the B period. Now price could be heading up to 1202 to tank.

Nice to see some1 trade ES here. Just wondering which broker are u using to trade it? I use to...
i'm with forex.com

I think it has started to tank. Value never edged above yesterday's NY value...NY H period head fake at the top to fill the LV anomaly at 1198 and then down she went...still need t be patient, but now it looks like the value building below/between both my previously indicated lines. The confirmation I was waiting for...
Change is the only constant
  • #3,370
  • Edited 5:26pm Sep 8, 2011 5:13pm | Edited 5:26pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting Evak
Nice bro, I been trading ES for the last 2 days since i came back...I took a long just now with that short overnite inventory. My reference was that spike zone & that anomaly u mentioned too.

Nice to see some1 trade ES here. Just wondering which broker are u using to trade it? I use to have it on fxpro but now i am using TOS....

http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/2...9sep090055.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us...
I took a long too in EU and I was crushed, because we had overnight inventory short but market didn't correct that means we had a strong down conviction or we still have one? Why the tail failed?
By the way why you don't use infinity or mirus..etc they have 500$ intraday margins
  • #3,371
  • Sep 9, 2011 12:01am Sep 9, 2011 12:01am
Quoting s7c
I took a long too in EU and I was crushed, because we had overnight inventory short but market didn't correct that means we had a strong down conviction or we still have one? Why the tail failed?
By the way why you don't use infinity or mirus..etc they have 500$ intraday margins
I am using TOS for convenience as my funds are there mostly for my ETFs & I am not a frequent ES trader but more an opportunistic one.

As for the why the tail failed? If u could show some chart perhaps?

I can only assume u are referring to the "tail offs" prior 1hr prior to NY pit session. It that is so u have to be aware that tails or excess have to have some kind of balance later to become secured.

Another one u have to be aware of is the RE or more specifically is it a early RE or a late one, into a session. A secure spike, tails or excess would be those occurring early on into the session, any where from up to first four periods.

By nature of yesterday tail which is a late session RE & also a tail prior to pit open. Primarily u have a late extension irregardless These are more prone to downward pressure as market is looking value lower & try to find balance.

Not forgetting the probable day type that was developing into. If u see negative minus development like what u saw yesterday after deliberating UK session. U have to assume at least a double distribution of sorts. If that is the case, the tail you thought was secure, was actually a spike down to carry things lower.

So these are some consideration one can drill into...
  • #3,372
  • Sep 9, 2011 1:34am Sep 9, 2011 1:34am
yesterday close is the first bar that can close below 1.3980 since April 2011..

anyone eyeing 1.3850-1.3750 as a target... ?
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...
  • #3,373
  • Sep 9, 2011 2:27am Sep 9, 2011 2:27am
Quoting bandung
yesterday close is the first bar that can close below 1.3980 since April 2011..

anyone eyeing 1.3850-1.3750 as a target... ?
3750 for a pause but i have my eyes down to 3500 too...
  • #3,374
  • Sep 9, 2011 2:30am Sep 9, 2011 2:30am
Just in case you guys & girls think there is more to MP then it looks, here is some terms u may like to get use to. So wrap it around u like a symmetrical bell & u be fine, or better still use it as a desktop wallpaper...

courtesy of JD.

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  • #3,375
  • Sep 9, 2011 2:37am Sep 9, 2011 2:37am
Quoting Evak
3750 for a pause but i have my eyes down to 3500 too...
thank Kave...
btw do you get any sense from painting letters by its volume...?
I cant get any yet
...
  • #3,376
  • Sep 9, 2011 3:33am Sep 9, 2011 3:33am
Quoting bandung
thank Kave...
btw do you get any sense from painting letters by its volume...?
I cant get any yet
haha, i think better tell u offline else I will be talking Einstein here....gibberish
  • #3,377
  • Sep 9, 2011 8:50am Sep 9, 2011 8:50am
Starting from now we may see the repair function coming in. Let's see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,378
  • Sep 9, 2011 9:22am Sep 9, 2011 9:22am
Quoting bandung
yesterday close is the first bar that can close below 1.3980 since April 2011..

anyone eyeing 1.3850-1.3750 as a target... ?
Hey Bandung,

Went pass the 3xib sitting on 3750 (4xIB).. nice. I got my hedge up just on a limit at 3700 while still holding my shorts..

Note that monthly POC & VPOC too, rather spot on for the POC..

http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/8...3sep092220.gif

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  • #3,379
  • Sep 9, 2011 9:38am Sep 9, 2011 9:38am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
evak, thank's for your time to respond, regarding that didn't happened exactly same thing today before nyse opening, so we should see around same reaction?
maybe some of my question are kind of dumb sorry for that. i'm reading and watching videos about MP and i'm at the point i get allot of information and that creates a confusion and don't see the forest from the trees...
  • #3,380
  • Sep 9, 2011 10:11am Sep 9, 2011 10:11am
Quoting s7c
evak, thank's for your time to respond, regarding that didn't happened exactly same thing today before nyse opening, so we should see around same reaction?
maybe some of my question are kind of dumb sorry for that. i'm reading and watching videos about MP and i'm at the point i get allot of information and that creates a confusion and don't see the forest from the trees...
No problem..

Yes today is similar with a late "tail offs" prior to US pit opens, with the exception to the "get go" of UK initiatives & also a clearly define spike prior to US pit opens.

So a daily double distribution here with session chart showing US lower distribution into a normal or variation of day type with limited RE, potentially speaking.

Note that TK session high with a flat top EFG was with lower volume which fails to auction higher indicating weak demand"

http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/1...5sep092306.gif


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