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AUD/USD

  • #33,021
  • Sep 6, 2011 5:18pm Sep 6, 2011 5:18pm
AUD/USD @1.0495

AUD GDP out today and my sources tell me 0.8pct up is the number.
But first up we have Captain Stevens from RBA giving his rally to the troops.

Enough of that stuff lets move on to more important matters.

AUD/CHF .9040

I cant believe it didnt make my .9150 target..
Ok I was saved by the SNB but its important to understand the real reason behind this.
Europe is in a spot of bother and sources tell me anarchy will reach fever pitch.
SNB is preparing for this exodus of euro.

Long AUD short euro chf gbp could be the trades.
Short AUD/USD

How long will Euro last in its current form?
Well given this decision was made by a lefty political nature rather than an economic strong point , Im giving it not long at all.

Good luck
  • #33,022
  • Sep 6, 2011 7:32pm Sep 6, 2011 7:32pm
Thank you Mr Stevens 20 pips already banked!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au 15min.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #33,023
  • Sep 6, 2011 8:24pm Sep 6, 2011 8:24pm
Hang on to your skirts. Lock in profit and check your stops!
  • #33,024
  • Sep 6, 2011 8:33pm Sep 6, 2011 8:33pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I agree. If Aussie GDP prints better than expectations, it should be a major event for this pair. With everyone else in the world sucking so bad, it could propel this pair above 1.0800 if pretty short order.

Regards,
ok. here we go!

Regards,
  • #33,025
  • Sep 6, 2011 8:39pm Sep 6, 2011 8:39pm
Quoting FX-Petra
ok. here we go!

Regards,
Good call! this( better than expected GDP ) should last for awhile..So I moved up TP.

Cheers!
  • #33,026
  • Edited 8:53pm Sep 6, 2011 8:40pm | Edited 8:53pm
Quoting mrbandwidth
First, mini-submarine. (1.0510 ?)
Then, medium-rocket. (1.0830 ?)
Finally, super-bathyscaphe. (0.9800 ?)

My 2 cents...

Inserted Video
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #33,027
  • Sep 6, 2011 8:44pm Sep 6, 2011 8:44pm
Quoting FX-Petra
ok. here we go!

Regards,
Why is it stalling again? It seems that whenever I am in the market, the market never moves and when I am not in the market, pips are flying by me.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #33,028
  • Sep 6, 2011 8:51pm Sep 6, 2011 8:51pm
Quoting Forexia
Why is it stalling again? It seems that whenever I am in the market, the market never moves and when I am not in the market, pips are flying by me.
Patience. We need Europe equites not to tank... and then U.S. Equites to have a good day. If these elements can fall into place, we could see the 0650 area by London close tomorrow. 0680 would be nice, but that would mean a 200 pip range day. The market has to come to grips with just how good the Aussies are doing, relative to the rest of the world.

Regards,
  • #33,029
  • Sep 6, 2011 9:00pm Sep 6, 2011 9:00pm
Daily support looks like she may brake to the down side with Mornig Star pattern to boot! I may hit it!
  • #33,030
  • Edited 11:30pm Sep 6, 2011 11:29pm | Edited 11:30pm
Quoting VennD
Rejected by 490 ... , add long 499 , 505 + 510.
Long scalpers closed @ 590 , Only left ... long @ 491 + short @ 756 ...

Awaiting Japan Data to complete ... MIXED STOPS abv 630.
  • #33,031
  • Sep 6, 2011 11:57pm Sep 6, 2011 11:57pm
Quoting VennD
Long scalpers closed @ 590 , Only left ... long @ 491 + short @ 756 ...

Awaiting Japan Data to complete ... MIXED STOPS abv 630.

do you only trade AUD ? as I see you open many positions on AUD

and tomorrow there is some Chinese data we should pay attention to as it usually affects AUD
  • #33,032
  • Edited 12:39am Sep 7, 2011 12:01am | Edited 12:39am
Quoting hamad00
do you only trade AUD ? as I see you open many positions on AUD

and tomorrow there is some Chinese data we should pay attention to as it usually affects AUD
Not only AUD ... others too . Yeah ... tht panda data.

Here is Gold charts , before and after closed one of the short.
Short @ 1900.10 closed @ 1817.94.
Maintain positions Long @ 1785.80 and Short @ 1910.45
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold1h_02.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gold1h_03.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #33,033
  • Sep 7, 2011 12:30am Sep 7, 2011 12:30am
AUD parity with the Euro?

Its coming to get you..
  • #33,034
  • Sep 7, 2011 12:50am Sep 7, 2011 12:50am
237 looks as she may hold Mate...good luck!

A/U right?

Quoting lasty
AUD parity with the Euro?

Its coming to get you..
  • #33,035
  • Sep 7, 2011 3:13am Sep 7, 2011 3:13am
one thing i'll find funny about this pair, is the fact that my winnings are limited in this pair and most of my losses are in this pair. My technical analysis probably needs a rebuild for this pair. It breaks most of my rules that i use to gain on Eurusd, usdjpy, and usdchf. whats so 'special' about this pair? anyone have any sentiments?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #33,036
  • Sep 7, 2011 3:58am Sep 7, 2011 3:58am
I don't normally go near fundamentals but I did really well out of the Swiss franc yesterday because I spent ten winters in the Alps and I just knew that Switzerland was finished if it didn't weaken the CHF.

... and on to the AUD. (rough figures only)

1994: $0.78 (high)
1996: $0.82 (high)
2001: $0.48 (low)
2003, 2004, 2005, 2006: $0.80 (highs all bouncing off 80 cents looking like government capping)
July 2008: $0.98 (high that rapidly then sold off to new low by September)
Sep 2008: $0.60 (low)
2009, 2010 $0.92 (many highs bouncing off 92 cents looking like government capping again)
20th July 2011 – all time 20+ year high of $1.11
10th Aug 2011: $0.99 (low)

… and since 10th August the AUD has recovered and has been bumbling along around $1.06 all week.

So it isn’t just a bit strong right now, the AUD is at a 20 year (and probably a lifetime) high. My feeling is to go seriously short right now and ride out the decline.

I think Australia must be really hurting because of the strong dollar. Australia have always exported commodities rather than manufactured goods and those will be looking very expensive right now, and then there’s the wine and tourism. Do you think they can possible let the currency go even stronger or do you think the Government will have to move really fast to prevent a huge recession there?

Could the AUD possibly rise above $1.11? Well I thought the CHF couldn't have possibly gone where it did but I think that the AUD couldn't possibly stay over 1.11 for very long and there's very good scope for a correction to 0.90 or below in the coming months.

A good punt for a position trade?
  • #33,037
  • Sep 7, 2011 4:18am Sep 7, 2011 4:18am
who knows trade what you see
  • #33,038
  • Sep 7, 2011 4:29am Sep 7, 2011 4:29am
Medran,

At the start of the year, I have gambled/bet SHORT AUD thinking the same line as you presented below. At that point I was banking that AUD being expensive, their exports will be expensive so much so their trading partners would look away. Then compound that with the floods which many have speculated to mean bad AU economy from there on forward.

Several $$$$ later, I was proven wrong.

The biggest "Dark Horse" to the Australia boom is the all insatiable China. China is just plain too RED HOT not even an AUDUSD of 1.1000 could stop them from importing Australian commodities such as Metals. Hell, send the flood over to china it wont quench the hot metal. Even when China increased their Interest Rates (RRR) several times it didnt fazed AUD as well.

Though I am stubbornly short AUD, I would warn folks to be cautious shorting AUD. Short AUDUSD is about -1.5 pips of swap each day. Can you ride that for 30 days (-45 pips)? How about a year (-550 pips)? There is even strong sentiment that AU would increase Interest Rates in the near future as well.

Bottom Line: If you are short AUD, you are betting that China would fold as well. Australian at the moment are not complaining of expensive AUD. Wait till they complain loudly enough to get noticed then start shorting AUD.

Quoting Medran
I don't normally go near fundamentals but I did really well out of the Swiss franc yesterday because I spent ten winters in the Alps and I just knew that Switzerland was finished if it didn't weaken the CHF.

... and on to the AUD. (rough figures only)

1994: $0.78 (high)
1996: $0.82 (high)
2001: $0.48 (low)
2003, 2004, 2005, 2006: $0.80 (highs all bouncing off 80 cents looking like government capping)
[size=3][font=Calibri]July...
  • #33,039
  • Sep 7, 2011 4:36am Sep 7, 2011 4:36am
Quoting BurgerKing
Medran,

At the start of the year, I have gambled/bet SHORT AUD thinking the same line as you presented below. At that point I was banking that AUD being expensive, their exports will be expensive so much so their trading partners would look away. Then compound that with the floods which many have speculated to mean bad AU economy from there on forward.

Several $$$$ later, I was proven wrong.

The biggest "Dark Horse" to the Australia boom is the all insatiable China. China is just plain too RED HOT not even an AUDUSD of 1.1000 could stop...
There are no certainties in life of course.

But commodities are generally priced in US Dollars and everything I buy from China I have to pay in US Dollars so the USD is really the surrogate currency of China. That being the case the Chinese can always source their raw materials from other currencies (shipping costs are outrageously low) so Australia must compete in a world market. With the AUD where it is that must be increasingly difficult for them. I think the balance of probablilty is that we'll see fireworks sooner rather than later.
  • #33,040
  • Sep 7, 2011 4:40am Sep 7, 2011 4:40am
Quoting bumapatria
one thing i'll find funny about this pair, is the fact that my winnings are limited in this pair and most of my losses are in this pair. My technical analysis probably needs a rebuild for this pair. It breaks most of my rules that i use to gain on Eurusd, usdjpy, and usdchf. whats so 'special' about this pair? anyone have any sentiments?
I have always wanted to meet up with folks who are consistently loosing on their trades.. Not to insult you. But rather to do the exact opposite of what you are doing and therefore be consistently winning instead.

In other words, get an EA that will trade (on another account) the exact opposite of what you are doing (at a higher lottage) and you will be net profit instead.

Why am I trading AUD? Temptation.
Hell I missed going long USDCHF before it shoot up twice.. I was waiting @ 0.7000, damn too low...
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