Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

very quiet thread these days , i suspect i'll be talking to myself

nevertheless, be interested to see where this goes
.

nice opportunity as shown, taking its time though
i'd like to see it reach the next blue ML
.

and this one from Mon., seems to be drifting and wouldnt be surprised if it fell back under the MML, we'll see
.

going further???
.

.

Another view on EU

and again (60m)

.

Longer term forks work too, even if you have to wait weeks/months for touches.

The H1 closeup shows the Andrews 1st Warning touch touched exact (0.9 pip overshoot) and bounced about 63 before it broke the same line twice (about ~30 max) before it shot up 240. But the down-move wasn't done yet...

Arguably, the M.Schiff LML is a stronger target because it is a straight line to connect the 1st and 3rd PF pivots. It's usually a make-or-break line if the up-move is to continue.

This latest touch of the M.Schiff (magenta) LML was overshot by just 0.5 pip. It has bounced ~120 so far, but interestingly enough, it WAS (until just now) holding up at the Andrews 1st Warning Line. It closed on exactly the line, and is now moving higher...

Haha, talk about whipsaws... EU -55 one minute, the next +98. Now down -65 in 5 more minutes. Exactly 24 hours and 5 minutes after yesterday's CHF bank intervention. In London it's 9:15A and they must be in the mood to shake things up.

P.S. Maybe it was the news expected at the top of this hour, "German Court Bailout Ruling". Perhaps it was a few minutes late??

i did some back-testing on weekly median lines a while back
looked at 5 or 6 pairs, found 2 trades over a 12mth period, 1 of which failed, the end result was an av. of about 5 pips/wk

..............that could just be me of course

hello folks
lower median line seems critical....

???

edit: some unexpected news driving GN up it seems............got lucky cancelling order pre red news
.

Brother Forktrader you know your lines are great Can I ask your opinion about these action reaction lines? I am working ar sets back into my trading because of your work. Thanks so much. Take care.

Please explain to me which ones you would or would not draw and perhaps show your own example as well. Thank you.

when i started out, nobody told me i had to do all this work to find quality set-ups............
.

My eur usd view.
I am looking to buy here for a retrace.
Can anyone confirm this view with his own?

Forkers,

I trade Cash FX and draw forks almost exclusively on Cash prices. I know that Futures prices can vary somewhat, and for something like a Pitchfork, it can change the slope of the object. Even a small difference can mean the difference between a touch vs. shy-or-over by several pips.

So which feed is better??

I saw someone else's chart of 6E (EU Futures) and noticed a near exact touch on a Daily Andrews fork that did not occur on my EU Cash chart.

After the fact, closer inspection and comparison of the two revealed some interesting observations. On my charts the black forks are the Andrews, the magenta forks are Modified Schiff (50% of both price & time).

The EUR_FUT,H4 chart shows a small 15 pip overshoot of the Andrews UML on Aug 29. By the way, compared to the ML-to-UML pitch of >1200 pips, the 15 overshoot is barely over 1%. (Price has fallen >940 pips thus far, which is clearly a major move. No question that forks are powerful and accurate!)

The Cash EU,H4 chart shows the peak shy of the Andrews UML by about 50 pips. Someone watching that Andrews fork may well believe that another final 50 pip push upwards was coming and might stand aside missing the best retest opportunity.

But wait... the Cash EU,H4 chart does show that the Mod.Schiff ML was touched and overshot by a small amount (10 pips). The same ML had some previous overshoots in the 10-20 pip range too. That is certainly a strong target, and one that a trader looking only at Cash FX charts may well guess that a peak was in, and no further push upwards (50 more pips) was needed.

Between the two, it seems the EUR_FUT was a superior chart for THIS fork and THIS bounce, but it's interesting that both feeds had reasonably strong targets hit.


A second earlier bounce on the same two charts is marked. The Quartiles of both forks are drawn. On the EUR_FUT chart, the bounce occurred at the exact intersection of the two quartiles, however price came down and was ~9 pips SHY of the 2 lines. It never touched. On the Cash EU chart however, the Andrews quartile is slightly above the M.Sch quartile. It was aoubt 1-2 pip shy of a touch of the Andrews quartile, but ~10 pip above the M.Sch quartile.

For this bounce, it probably didn't matter which of the two charts one would use. The Cash chart was perhaps better accuracy with <2pip touch. However, with both charts coming within 10 pips for such a large fork is close enough to be considered a "touch". The EUR_FUT chart is slightly more elegant in that the near touch bar occurred at the exact intersection of the two quartiles.

For just this one example, it seems that both feeds are valid. Perhaps the Futures chart was slightly better for THIS specific comparison of forks, but as I typically only chart cash FX, I can't make any general conclusions which is better. I do know that Cash FX forks have plenty of exact touches on large forks so they must be in play by the market. What I don't know is how those same touches looked on Futures charts, nor do I know what exact touches may have occurred on Futures that the Cash FX would miss. It would seem to be a worthy topic for further study.

Kent (pips4life)

Hi guys. Can someone explain me how to draw Pitchfork lines. I couldn't understand how to apply AML_V1 indicator to the chart. If it's possible with tutorial would be great!

Thanks in advance!