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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #27,081
  • Sep 6, 2011 7:12am Sep 6, 2011 7:12am
Quoting mla
Fortune favours the brave.

La Fortuna aiuta gli audaci.

mla
It is not to celebrate. This action was rare and you cant rely on such actions. Worse is, that that action is off-conditions in the market... I think that there will be twoo big camps now : One celebrating and the second with terrible loses... And of course those, who just think they missed the oportunity. Regards
  • #27,082
  • Sep 6, 2011 7:13am Sep 6, 2011 7:13am
Quoting auxesis
Don't forget to tip your hat to the SNB.
That is what I meant.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #27,083
  • Sep 6, 2011 7:30am Sep 6, 2011 7:30am
Quoting Fana
It is not to celebrate. This action was rare and you cant rely on such actions. Worse is, that that action is off-conditions in the market... I think that there will be twoo big camps now : One celebrating and the second with terrible loses... And of course those, who just think they missed the oportunity. Regards
I did not rely on such action, I know I was lucky. But remember to get lucky you have to be there. Also was not easy to be long in that time under that specific condition.

I disagree with you regarding not celebrating, I am not celebrating somebody losses, I am only celebrating my good fortune and wish the same to all included my worst enemy (Or maybe not).

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #27,084
  • Sep 6, 2011 7:40am Sep 6, 2011 7:40am
Quoting mla
That is what I meant.

mla
Nice trade.

We are retesting the prior breakout levels, lets see where we go from here.

a
  • #27,085
  • Sep 6, 2011 7:50am Sep 6, 2011 7:50am
Quoting auxesis
Nice trade.

We are retesting the prior breakout levels, lets see where we go from here.

a
Thank you.

Difficult to say, I feel she is going to stall.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #27,086
  • Sep 6, 2011 7:56am Sep 6, 2011 7:56am
Happy trading day everyone. Good for you if you caught the SNB-related trading this morning. I have been trading the move back to reality on the E/$ and the GBP/$. I think this is a very significant move that is underway now so lets see how things develop today and for the rest of the week. Good trading to everyone!
  • #27,087
  • Sep 6, 2011 8:44am Sep 6, 2011 8:44am
I think she had enough amplexuses for the day and she is going to lay down to re savour and stretch in the heights of the moments. But you really never know what she is up to. I think I am going to join another lady a bit more tranquil.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #27,088
  • Sep 6, 2011 11:28am Sep 6, 2011 11:28am
OK, it may continue moving south from here, but I am calling it a day, but will be back for Tokyo to see what happens. The break of 1.4000 and 1.6000 may be very significant, only time will tell. Will stay tuned to both pairs for further developments. Wish fti were here to lend his expertise. Hope he is watching and enjoying the move.
  • #27,089
  • Sep 6, 2011 12:37pm Sep 6, 2011 12:37pm
we are at a crucial point right now, after SNB intervention speculative trade injected some life into the euro, however, at this level, we really will see what the Banks are up to. the Field is set, weak longs were taken off, the big stop cluster was triggered, and the euro continues to sell off, mainly on risk aversion.

US bond yields are down, but this does not mean that this is a sure fire continuation.

if we look at the monthly volatility, the exchange rate has been anywhere from 1.40 to 1.46, and right now as things stands, we are trading under 1.40

i think the way Asia trades this at the beginning might give clearer signs, if they want to continue to push this one lower, or if they want to defend the euro above 1.40
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #27,090
  • Edited 2:31pm Sep 6, 2011 1:51pm | Edited 2:31pm
Surrender: A Key to Mastery
"Trading to win" means surrendering to the moment without trying
to control it. It means to let go of fixed preconceptions about what
you must do, and to liberate your self-conscious sense of self and selfprotective
thoughts, which color the way you experience life and the
market. When you can do this, you are in the here and now of your
trading, and can bring your maximum potential to bear on the tasks
before you.
In effect, you develop mastery by giving up fixed notions about the
way the market is, your self-absorption, and various defensive behaviors
that cover up your sense of being special. When you can clear your
thoughts of these egotistical concerns, you start to see the market as it
is, not as a reference point for your own existence.


V

PS: "Trading to win" is the book name..anyone on TAF for last 2-3 years will understand this much better...
  • #27,091
  • Sep 6, 2011 2:25pm Sep 6, 2011 2:25pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Surrender: A Key to Mastery
"Trading to win" means surrendering to the moment without trying
to control it. It means to let go of fixed preconceptions about what
you must do, and to liberate your self-conscious sense of self and selfprotective
thoughts, which color the way you experience life and the
market. When you can do this, you are in the here and now of your
trading, and can bring your maximum potential to bear on the tasks
before you.
In effect, you develop mastery by giving up fixed notions about the
way the market is, your self-absorption,...
Nice post, thanks!
  • #27,092
  • Sep 6, 2011 2:31pm Sep 6, 2011 2:31pm
Quoting the redlion
we are at a crucial point right now, after SNB intervention speculative trade injected some life into the euro, however, at this level, we really will see what the Banks are up to. the Field is set, weak longs were taken off, the big stop cluster was triggered, and the euro continues to sell off, mainly on risk aversion.

US bond yields are down, but this does not mean that this is a sure fire continuation.

if we look at the monthly volatility, the exchange rate has been anywhere from 1.40 to 1.46, and right now as things stands, we are trading...
Hi Red, hope you are trading well. I've been watching the euro as the US equity markets enter their final 1/2 hour, and find it interesting that the euro is drifting down towards it's session lows rather than retrace (it's below 1.4000 now). Not sure that means anything other than no one seems interested in buying euros right now. Watch the news for after close surprises, and suggest everyone remain nimble.
  • #27,093
  • Sep 6, 2011 5:27pm Sep 6, 2011 5:27pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi Red, hope you are trading well. I've been watching the euro as the US equity markets enter their final 1/2 hour, and find it interesting that the euro is drifting down towards it's session lows rather than retrace (it's below 1.4000 now). Not sure that means anything other than no one seems interested in buying euros right now. Watch the news for after close surprises, and suggest everyone remain nimble.
Let's see if we get some action back below 3970, might be a set up for some correction, things seem to be leveling off overseas for the time being.

fwiw
  • #27,094
  • Sep 6, 2011 6:56pm Sep 6, 2011 6:56pm
The problem with the euro is Italy, Italy is a country that exist only on paper.

Italy was unified only around 1860, and the decision was only economical, organised by the Savoia's because they reign had huge debt living a luscious life while il Regno delle due Sicilie (the other reign) was prosperous and had not debt.

The Savoia were back by the British economically and politically because they were (the poms) interested in the rich site of sulfur, at the time very important for war reasons, produced in Sicily.
History repeats itself (see Iraq for petrol and Afghanistan for dope).

Documented horrified lager or concentration camps were held in norther Italy and still today nobody want to talk about it.

The unification brought huge taxes (from 1 to 5) and initiated wide immigration and the beginning of organisation to defend themselves against the oppressors (mafia, ndrangeta, cammorra, corona unita).

Institutions have and will never be recognised by the people, institution are the enemy.

There is also a huge gap between social classes like most of the western country, but in Italy there is not any social mobility, meaning that if you are born poor you chances of getting rich are very slim.

Necessity lead to creativity, the real backbone of the country is the small and medium industry, that produces the made in Italy, the food, the interiors, the fashion, the moto Guzzi, the Bucatti (my favourite car) Puccini, Pavarotti and Frank Zappa. Frank Zappa? Yes, Sicilian descendent.

Nobody want and pay taxes, remember the institutions are the enemy and the production is not stimulated but blocked by the inefficiency of the last 150 years.

Until now the situation has been very well much hidden, but under such international condition there is not much to hide, it is all there.

La dolce vita is not sweet anymore and is going to be rather bitter.

What's next? Uhhm, I do not know, maybe civil war? There is a chance.

Or maybe the Italians need to wake up and realise that if you want make a change you need to change yourself and come to terms that nobody is going to make that change for you.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #27,095
  • Sep 6, 2011 7:09pm Sep 6, 2011 7:09pm
Quoting auxesis
Let's see if we get some action back below 3970, might be a set up for some correction, things seem to be leveling off overseas for the time being.

fwiw
Hi auxesis, my thoughts exactly. This may become one of those situations like 2008, where we get hugh moves several times a day (if things start to fall apart for the euro). No predictions, but should be interesting.

Edit: Step 1: SNB announement today. Step 2: IMF pulls out of Greek deal. Step 3: Greek defaults and pulls out of Euro. Step 4: German court rules their participation in bail out fund is illegal. Step 5: Interest rates spike throughout Europe and big banks panic. Step 6: Key euro participants head for the door. Step 7: The euro, which is currently trading at 1.4004, opens at .9000. Yikes! OK, just kidding around and hope it does not come to this.
  • #27,096
  • Sep 6, 2011 7:22pm Sep 6, 2011 7:22pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi auxesis, my thoughts exactly. This may become one of those situations like 2008, where we get hugh moves several times a day (if things start to fall apart for the euro). No predictions, but should be interesting.

Edit: Step 1: SNB announement today. Step 2: IMF pulls out of Greek deal. Step 3: Greek defaults and pulls out of Euro. Step 4: German court rules their participation in bail out fund is illegal. Step 5: Interest rates spike throughout Europe and big banks panic. Step 6: Key euro participants head for the door. Step 7: The euro,...
should be interesting.
regarding fti i havent talked to him so i dont know i hope he is well.
i will email him soon
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #27,097
  • Sep 6, 2011 7:27pm Sep 6, 2011 7:27pm
Hi all!
Anyone know how the Boss is doing?
Thanks
  • #27,098
  • Sep 6, 2011 8:11pm Sep 6, 2011 8:11pm
Nikkei seems to be holding it's own tonight, Asian session boring.

Later everyone.
  • #27,099
  • Sep 6, 2011 8:15pm Sep 6, 2011 8:15pm
Done for the night. Take care everyone!
  • #27,100
  • Sep 7, 2011 7:14am Sep 7, 2011 7:14am
Euro's bouncing between some key levels, Asia, Euro markets seem to have found a floor for the moment, US markets poised to open higher.

Retrace levels or break south????

Let's see.
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