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Technical Analysis Fallacy

Quoting auxesis
Fana,

There's is much power in the skew. but practice it on demo, before you jump out with your money. You need first to learn to ride in the direction of the trend.

,
trend is a very tricky/difficult subject for me .... in the first aprox. 200 pages of this thread the TF to look at is daily and therefore for the last week i was long E-US i lost no money because i stayed nimble and rescued my long scouts.....

i have a bad feeling about the the flipping by FTI (when he last shared his trading with "us")... i think his skill makes it possible for him but it is not FXdealing MO he started to teach.....

i am happy to see many old-timers still here .... and maybe some can comment on the meaning of a trend in these volitile days....

kind greets and a good trading-week to all
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
Quoting j-pax
trend is a very tricky/difficult subject for me .... in the first aprox. 200 pages of this thread the TF to look at is daily and therefore for the last week i was long E-US i lost no money because i stayed nimble and rescued my long scouts.....

i have a bad feeling about the the flipping by FTI (when he last shared his trading with "us")... i think his skill makes it possible for him but it is not FXdealing MO he started to teach.....

i am happy to see many old-timers still here .... and maybe some can comment on the meaning of a trend in...
Hi j-pax, good to see you again. I have been focusing on the other time frames for the E/$ trend. The day trend is/has been up with the retracement, but I see the E/$ in a slightly downward (?) range recently. I attribute this to the uncertainty going on between the dollar and the Eurozone. As long as we are in this range, I will use the 4H as my longer term time frame, and the 1H/30M for "nimble" trending, but will keep an eye on the Day chart. Not that this is right or the best way to look at things, but it is what I am doing. Good trading to everyone.
Quoting j-pax
trend is a very tricky/difficult subject for me .... in the first aprox. 200 pages of this thread the TF to look at is daily and therefore for the last week i was long E-US i lost no money because i stayed nimble and rescued my long scouts.....

i have a bad feeling about the the flipping by FTI (when he last shared his trading with "us")... i think his skill makes it possible for him but it is not FXdealing MO he started to teach.....

i am happy to see many old-timers still here .... and maybe some can comment on the meaning of a trend in...
J-pax,

A trend is simply a consecutive series of higher highs and lows in an uptrend, the reverse, lower lows and highs in a down trend. Emphasis should be given to the higher lows (support) going up, and the lower highs (resistance) going down.

For instance in an up trend price dosent necessarily have to make higher highs, price can consolidate. Example a wedge, but still make higher lows. A main reason for the adage that patterns tend to break in the direction of the trend.

Inside every wave of a larger trend, you have smaller time-frame trends and counter-trends.

So defining a trend on a chart can be time sensitive. Daily charts show one thing but as I zoom in a see smaller waves making up the larger waves, zooming in closer I see even smaller waves making up the intermediate.

Fti wrote it is best to stick with the daily or long term trend. But what if the intermediate trend is going the opposite direction? How should ,I or better, do I trade it? Remember him stating that if you only trend trade you will be on the sidelines most of the time. Note: the last supporting/resisting trend turn in your chosen time frame holds the key.

Pick a time frame you feel comfortable trading, zoom out enough so you can see price trending, judging that against the next higher time frame trend. when it's unison, trade the smaller in the direction of the larger by buying the dips and selling the rallies.

fwiw.

15minute Euro you tell me where's the trend
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Quoting auxesis
J-pax,

A trend is simply a consecutive series of higher highs and lows in an uptrend, the reverse, lower lows and highs in a down trend. Emphasis should be given to the higher lows (support) going up, and the lower highs (resistance) going down.

For instance in an up trend price dosent necessarily have to make higher highs, price can consolidate. Example a wedge, but still make higher lows. A main reason for the adage that patterns tend to break in the direction of the trend.

Inside every wave of a larger trend, you have smaller time-frame...
from your picture if one was going to go against the trend and buy the dip Id have to say that 41.26-36 area looks like a good place
and if your behind the eight ball a place for a rescue.
The timeframe was backed all the way out to the daily.
1.4173 resistance area noted the last 4 our so hrs.
Quoting auxesis
J-pax,

A trend is simply a consecutive series of higher highs and lows in an uptrend, the reverse, lower lows and highs in a down trend. Emphasis should be given to the higher lows (support) going up, and the lower highs (resistance) going down.

For instance in an up trend price dosent necessarily have to make higher highs, price can consolidate. Example a wedge, but still make higher lows. A main reason for the adage that patterns tend to break in the direction of the trend.

Inside every wave of a larger trend, you have smaller time-frame trends...
Defining a Trend could be a challenge. Thomas Demark said: Trend should be defined as a series of hl or lh from right to left (Present-Past). And then he filter it with a series of rules.

you should look out for the book:

Thomas Demark And the science of technical Trading.
Quoting gino32
Defining a Trend could be a challenge. Thomas Demark said: Trend should be defined as a series of hl or lh from right to left (Present-Past). And then he filter it with a series of rules.

you should look out for the book:

Thomas Demark And the science of technical Trading.
just wondering... if i studied philosophy, after i finished it should i be called philosopher? just wondering
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
Quoting lilpip
from your picture if one was going to go against the trend and buy the dip Id have to say that 41.26-36 area looks like a good place
and if your behind the eight ball a place for a rescue.
The timeframe was backed all the way out to the daily.
1.4173 resistance area noted the last 4 our so hrs.
Lilpip,

Yes I have to agree, trend speaking, if, when price took out the prior 4530 (4hr) high that puts the prior low 4057 as the anchor point. If we are in a range, then boundaries can be anywhere inside the candle/bar that prints the high/low. And we are there. On the smaller timeframes, this drop has not taken out any resistance levels made on the way down.... every rally back to the prior high has been knocked back down.

Have to ask, are we headed above 2000 for XAU on this current bull run?

regards,
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Quoting gino32
Defining a Trend could be a challenge. Thomas Demark said: Trend should be defined as a series of hl or lh from right to left (Present-Past). And then he filter it with a series of rules.

you should look out for the book:

Thomas Demark And the science of technical Trading.
Gino32,

I read part of the book a long while back............ "a series of hl or lh from right to left" is exactly what i said.

Filtering, basically is degree classification of a trend or determining when a correction is still in the context of the trend. Which is what most have a problem with.

regards,
I am constantly making money on eurusd, (on 5M TF) with the trend and against the trend and I have not read the first 200 pages

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
Quoting mla
I am constantly making money on eurusd, (on 5M TF) with the trend and against the trend and I have not read the first 200 pages

mla
Hi Mla

And? ..................................................
Quoting Fana
Hi Mla

And? ..................................................
Intermarket analysis is very important for my trading, gold, oil, equities, sentiment.......
Also every candle has a story.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
Quoting mla
I am constantly making money on eurusd, (on 5M TF) with the trend and against the trend and I have not read the first 200 pages

mla
Every day I cross the road in front of my house with my eyes closed and I have not been run over yet.
Quoting ukmanthailan
Every day I cross the road in front of my house with my eyes closed and I have not been run over yet.
Lol, well said :-)

How I trade:

1) I check daily overall trend for last 10-14 days by simply looking at the chart from at least 1m distance (sounds funny, but it works)

2) Switch to 1h chart and wait price to turn the daily direction (turn = creating a nice leg & range)

3) Switch to 5mins, wait for an impulse to create a reasonable volatility (leg range) and send a scout

4) Swim = attack, load, unload, collecting prisoners, exchanging them in moments of danger, collecting pips, rescue friendly soldiers, etc.

To me, NO volatility means NO trade! (hourly and 5 min chart; coiling daily chart is fine, i.e. range trading).

A side note: every trade involving CHF and JPY must be done very carefully: BOJ and SNB are watching us

Plamen
Bah...
Those are my 3 trades of the day: in with arrow, out with stop sign, all short.
Is midnight in Sydney, I am going to bed.

Desiderata

Go placidly amid the noise & haste,
And remember what peace there may be in silence.
As far as possible without surrender, be on good terms with all persons.
Speak your truth quietly & clearly; and listen to others, even the dull and ignorant;
They too have their story................

mla
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"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
Every retest of a previous high today has been an opportunity to sell Euro's, easy trading. Late day retest of today's low in play, see if it gets there.
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Gotcha... +112,1 pips on EUR/USD from my baby scout...
A nice gift by Swiss National Bank...
I'm out until the market absorbs this...

First sign of galoping craziness...
Who knows what lies ahead...
Quoting plamendp
Lol, well said :-)

How I trade:

1) I check daily overall trend for last 10-14 days by simply looking at the chart from at least 1m distance (sounds funny, but it works)

2) Switch to 1h chart and wait price to turn the daily direction (turn = creating a nice leg & range)

3) Switch to 5mins, wait for an impulse to create a reasonable volatility (leg range) and send a scout

4) Swim = attack, load, unload, collecting prisoners, exchanging them in moments of danger, collecting pips, rescue friendly soldiers, etc.

To me, NO volatility means...
thanks for the info sir
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
Fortune favours the brave.

La Fortuna aiuta gli audaci.

mla
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"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
Quoting mla
Fortune favours the brave.

La Fortuna aiuta gli audaci.

mla
Don't forget to tip your hat to the SNB.
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