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The Really Useless Thread

  • #8,661
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:03am Sep 6, 2011 3:03am
Quoting needpips
bastards
well they hooked me up twice so they are cool in my book. After they said that last week it was a no brainer short at that level... and it tanked.
  • #8,662
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:04am Sep 6, 2011 3:04am
Quoting needpips
bastards
I don't understand why the surprise. I always considered politicians as being the enemy. I do exactly the opposite of what they say, and I've been OK so far. Economic crisis? What crisis. Not for me. Never was.
  • #8,663
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:04am Sep 6, 2011 3:04am
I moved my SL a bit...gonna give her some room....much lower may be on tap...dont wanna get S/O on a whim
  • #8,664
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:07am Sep 6, 2011 3:07am
anyone shorting E/C?
  • #8,665
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:07am Sep 6, 2011 3:07am
Quoting Monroe
And just last week they said "shit, we'll just have to live with a strong Franc"
we should have just went long and went to bed on that statement
  • #8,666
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:07am Sep 6, 2011 3:07am
Quoting Monroe
I agree fully with what you're saying here. Why would they even attempt though? Just to show that they attempted to try? everytime a CB intervenes it's a waste but they keep doing it anyway after they do their talking... maybe they just don't want to seem like pure shit talkers, lol
I agree but there is a huge difference between intervention and a fix (or band) exchange rate system.

The SNB move is aiming to create a band floor that is the 1st step of a fix exchange rate and although in the short term it may need/look as direct intervention to set the floor, the monetary policy is aim to set inflation and interest rate expectations on a fix or semi-flexible band exchange rate for the long term (i.e see China or the Gold/dollar standard after B. Woods until the 70s collapse of the "fix" rate).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #8,667
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:09am Sep 6, 2011 3:09am
Quoting PayTheLimit
dealers choice...
what's up brother

i know ken hates longs and everything but that was a good one
  • #8,668
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:10am Sep 6, 2011 3:10am
Quoting sisse
I agree but there is a huge difference between intervention and a fix (or band) exchange rate system.

The SNB move is aiming to create a band floor that is the 1st step of a fix exchange rate and although in the short term it may need/look as direct intervention to set the floor, the monetary policy is aim to set inflation and interest rate expectations on a fix or semi-flexible band exchange rate for the long term (i.e see China or the Gold/dollar standard after B. Woods until the 70s collapse of the "fix" rate).

sisse

i.e. the euro is too strong?
  • #8,669
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:13am Sep 6, 2011 3:13am
Quoting needpips
i.e. the euro is too strong?
I would say the dollar is too weak instead .... In any case, horrible numbers in Germany keep coming in ....That last move killed intraday charts on the euro...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #8,670
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:14am Sep 6, 2011 3:14am
Quoting sisse
I agree but there is a huge difference between intervention and a fix (or band) exchange rate system.

The SNB move is aiming to create a band floor that is the 1st step of a fix exchange rate and although in the short term it may need/look as direct intervention to set the floor, the monetary policy is aim to set inflation and interest rate expectations on a fix or semi-flexible band exchange rate for the long term (i.e see China or the Gold/dollar standard after B. Woods until the 70s collapse of the "fix" rate).

sisse
that's true... good point.
  • #8,671
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:14am Sep 6, 2011 3:14am
Quoting sisse
I agree but there is a huge difference between intervention and a fix (or band) exchange rate system.


The SNB move is aiming to create a band floor that is the 1st step of a fix exchange rate and although in the short term it may need/look as direct intervention to set the floor, the monetary policy is aim to set inflation and interest rate expectations on a fix or semi-flexible band exchange rate for the long term (i.e see China or the Gold/dollar standard after B. Woods until the 70s collapse of the "fix" rate).

sisse
Got some trades in so have a bit of time again to comment.


The problem the Swiss has is that there is no alternative as safe haven, the CHF is so liquid that nothing else can replace it. Setting the floor will have another effect, more and more private citizens in the EU will park cash there with the knowledge and hope that he CHF will not change a lot, that only drives the CHF higher again. They opened a can of worms in today's economic global climate that I for one don't think they can win.

Will they properly peg the Ec next? Will they really give up their monetary indepence? May as well join the Euro then. Not many Swiss voters will be chumipng at the bit for that one.

Today is a bold move to depreciate the CHF, let's see how long they can continue that, they will defend that 1.20 for a few weeks to come here, they are not going to fail on the first hurdle, but I fully expect it to be tested over and over again.
  • #8,672
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:16am Sep 6, 2011 3:16am
Not my charts
Quoting sisse
That last move killed intraday charts on the euro...

sisse
  • #8,673
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:19am Sep 6, 2011 3:19am
Quoting fxjawn
what's up brother

i know ken hates longs and everything but that was a good one
all good bro..just about to go to lunch, nothing clear for me here at these levels, think I'll let the market digest this move a while...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #8,674
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:20am Sep 6, 2011 3:20am
Quoting needpips
i.e. the euro is too strong?

The euro at these levels is killing Germany. They are playing a political game right now as I have posted several times already. They want the euro down and arguing about the EFSF, even the court case tomorrow may get them that.

The first fundie round today is Italy and their vote tonight. The only thing that is keeping the yields down and the euro up right now is the ECB buying every week.

Interesting to see what the handover is going to do in 2 months at the ECB, we could well see revised inflation numbers and a rate cut.
  • #8,675
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:20am Sep 6, 2011 3:20am
Looking at 4325. See you later.
  • #8,676
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:25am Sep 6, 2011 3:25am
Quoting attila
Looking at 4325. See you later.
or 4379.
Gold Expedition Return This Year: -15.7%
  • #8,677
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:27am Sep 6, 2011 3:27am
bbl, gl, PTL...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #8,678
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:28am Sep 6, 2011 3:28am
Gonna get some lunch, playing the 83 here.


l8r
  • #8,679
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:37am Sep 6, 2011 3:37am
Quoting budak baru
or 4379.
I think you're seeing what I see.
  • #8,680
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:44am Sep 6, 2011 3:44am
Quoting cloggie
Got some trades in so have a bit of time again to comment.


The problem the Swiss has is that there is no alternative as safe haven, the CHF is so liquid that nothing else can replace it. Setting the floor will have another effect, more and more private citizens in the EU will park cash there with the knowledge and hope that he CHF will not change a lot, that only drives the CHF higher again. They opened a can of worms in today's economic global climate that I for one don't think they can win.

Will they properly peg the Ec next? Will they really...
Agree, as I mentioned before my view is a preemptive move in case of global recession / financial crisis 2. The short term cost of setting a floor as a preemptive fix rate is a lot less than coping with the tsunami of a double dip.

In simple words, is just a huge overshoot in expectations. After monetary policy, "playing" with expectations is what makes the difference between a good and bad CBanker. (see also Trichet saving the boat this last 2 years in comparison with the BOJ or FED)

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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