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  • #8,641
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:40am Sep 6, 2011 4:40am
Quoting Monroe
Cool thanks for knowledge. They will have to spend a serious amount to hold EUR/CHF at 1.2 as well I would think, but they are saying they are serious and will do what it takes, buying unlimited amounts of foreign currencies... which in effect would help the Euro in this case. They still think 1.2 is way overvalued though.

They will need FED swaps to make it work, they cannot fight the market on their own.
  • #8,642
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:42am Sep 6, 2011 4:42am
Quoting cloggie
I fully expect to see a test of that 1.20 floor, maybe as soon as today, the markets don't take lightly to a CB trying to outplay them. They want to test their resolve. Fairly easy play for the big boys, drive it down, sit back and ride up the SNB move, rinse and repeat. Who has the deepest pockets, the markets of course, you can't outspend the FX market, going to be fun to watch.
From a strictly TA I see 1.18 intraday with a close this week above 1.20 to mark a confirmed weekly break. And dead volatility range from 1.24 / 1.20 for a while...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #8,643
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:42am Sep 6, 2011 4:42am
last weeks low 4183..if this hour fades, will look a little wicky..
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  • #8,644
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:44am Sep 6, 2011 4:44am
Quoting cloggie
Ec
It seems its gonna bang its head at 1.2394 and more.

Hammer on weekly looks MAD for all these years of humiliation ..

ya 1.20 is not that far..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #8,645
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:45am Sep 6, 2011 4:45am
Quoting PayTheLimit
last weeks low 4183..if this hour fades, will look a little wicky..

82 is the next 62 from earlier.
  • #8,646
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:47am Sep 6, 2011 4:47am
Quoting cloggie
82 is the next 62 from earlier.
if 78/83 goes, it will be back to 31 for me...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #8,647
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:47am Sep 6, 2011 4:47am
Anyone else having problems with August transaction history? w. Oanda..
  • #8,648
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:48am Sep 6, 2011 4:48am
After some reading over the weekend it was expected to be a possibility for SNB to intervene this week, some thought Monday would have been perfect as it was US holiday and illiquid.... but no, they waited for tuesday.

Not that this ties into anything with that, but on EU, I knew something a little funny might have been going on because I saw them going for the stops under 4055 a bit early, took them out before early Europe got in. I took the short off that clear trendline and TP at 4045 then waited for some confirmation on a long.... worked out well, didn't expect to see much above 4200 though.
  • #8,649
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:48am Sep 6, 2011 4:48am
and back again ....
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  • #8,650
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:49am Sep 6, 2011 4:49am
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  • #8,651
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:49am Sep 6, 2011 4:49am
Quoting needpips
man...gold pooped the bed...Swiss selling gold to pay for this little endeavor?
I don't trade gold but when looking to it and depends on my own chart
There a sell @1920 target 1810
  • #8,652
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:51am Sep 6, 2011 4:51am
Quoting Monroe
Cool thanks for knowledge. They will have to spend a serious amount to hold EUR/CHF at 1.2 as well I would think, but they are saying they are serious and will do what it takes, buying unlimited amounts of foreign currencies... which in effect would help the Euro in this case. They still think 1.2 is way overvalued though.

So far this year the SNB has spend 200Bn with no effect, I fully expect them to need at least a Trillion, or close to it to keep it above 1.20 for the rest of the year, how long do you think that the Swiss citizens will "allow" them to waste money on that just to safeguard exports at their own domestic expense.

This is not 78/79, the EU is in a mess, so is the US, where is the safe haven for cash holders now? CAD/NZD/AUD? Not really, would a cash investor buy Gold as safe haven? not really, T-bills is an option and so is the USD. The big problem with the other "safe havens" is liquidity, there is nothing out there right now to replace the CHF.
  • #8,653
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:51am Sep 6, 2011 4:51am
Cloggie what you make of the wild EZ CDS this morning. They are cracking all time highs and Italy is flirting to jump to the next stage in 10 and 5yrs if the ECB Bond buying fails (Trichet wasn't really confident yesterday and on the very gloomy side).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #8,654
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:52am Sep 6, 2011 4:52am
Quoting Larseg
Anyone else having problems with August transaction history? w. Oanda..
mine is fine
  • #8,655
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:55am Sep 6, 2011 4:55am
Quoting sisse
Cloggie what you make of the wild EZ CDS this morning. They are cracking all time highs and Italy is flirting to jump to the next stage in 10 and 5yrs if the ECB Bond buying fails (Trichet wasn't really confident yesterday and on the very gloomy side).

sisse

I think what we are seeing today is rebalancing of treasury and cash holdings on the back of the SNB statement. The driver for the CDS/reates will be the Italian vote later tonight and the German court hearing tomorrow.

Just loooking at Greek debt with 1 yr at 83% and 2 yr at 50%, we are seeing a bit a flight to safety of bondholders and that I thing is driving the CDS's too.

I am watching the long term spreads and CDS's closely too over the next 2-3 days.

Italy 2/5/10 is actually down a bit this morning.
  • #8,656
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:56am Sep 6, 2011 4:56am
Quoting cloggie
So far this year the SNB has spend 200Bn with no effect, I fully expect them to need at least a Trillion, or close to it to keep it above 1.20 for the rest of the year, how long do you think that the Swiss citizens will "allow" them to waste money on that just to safeguard exports at their own domestic expense.

This is not 78/79, the EU is in a mess, so is the US, where is the safe haven for cash holders now? CAD/NZD/AUD? Not really, would a cash investor buy Gold as safe haven? not really, T-bills is an option and so is the USD. The big problem...
I agree fully with what you're saying here. Why would they even attempt though? Just to show that they attempted to try? everytime a CB intervenes it's a waste but they keep doing it anyway after they do their talking... maybe they just don't want to seem like pure shit talkers, lol
  • #8,657
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:58am Sep 6, 2011 4:58am
Quoting fxjawn
and back again ....

Well played, I am posting too much here and missed that setup. Need to concentrate a bit here guys.


l8r.
  • #8,658
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:59am Sep 6, 2011 4:59am
And just last week they said "shit, we'll just have to live with a strong Franc"
  • #8,659
  • Sep 6, 2011 5:02am Sep 6, 2011 5:02am
Quoting Monroe
And just last week they said "shit, we'll just have to live with a strong Franc"
bastards
  • #8,660
  • Sep 6, 2011 5:02am Sep 6, 2011 5:02am
dealers choice...
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