It's important to be very clear about what you want (and I know you made several attempts). To tabulate the net path distance of individual moves and divide through by the sum of all those paths does not accomplish what you are trying to summarize.
You need to count the number of occurrences of moves for each outcome of interest. If you have 300 net 10 pip moves that is the number of occurrences of one outcome. 200 net 20 pip moves would be another. You can then divide by the total number of occurrences
to get the normalized probability of each event.
300/500=60% prob of a net 10 pip move
200/500=40% prob of a net 20 pip move
and so on.
Standard Deviation has nothing to do with your original question.
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150 = 20%
200 = 26.66%
400 = 53.33%
All you are tabulating above is the relative magnitudes of each path distance as a percentage of total sum magnitude of moves.
I believe that what you want is the probability of occurrence of each such event. You can use raw moves or relative magnitudes if you wish, either way you are missing the tabulation of occurrences of each event-- which is key. It is impossible to derive this information from the numbers you have presented.
It's important to be very clear about what you want (and I know you made several attempts). To tabulate the net path distance of individual moves and divide through by the sum of all those paths does not accomplish what you are trying to summarize.
You need to count the number of occurrences of moves for each outcome of interest. If you have 300 net 10 pip moves that is the number of occurrences of one outcome. 200 net 20 pip moves would be another. You can then divide by the total number of occurrences
to...
Ignored
Yes I understand this and I have recorded all these occurrences of data, yet the math I have been doing is pretty accurate to the actual market reading. Yet I see many saying I am doing it wrong or are completely confused what I am saying.. so now that makes me question how my math voodoo is somehow magically accurate.
and the skies opened, and the sunlight was oh so warm and comforting.
Ignored
lol, well I tried to be touchy with my words.. if I say the market moves by people entering randomly.. someones going to go "people don't enter randomly.. I don't enter my positions at random"
so I tried to say it carefully.. just the fact you have 1000 people who in the end will move the market upwards.. but they are not in sync and will undoubtedly enter at various times... factor in another group of 1000 people who are taking profit and exiting at various times.. chop chop fatality
