Dear all,

I have the following probability problem, wonder anyone who are good at maths can answer.

Someone sold me a trading system and claimed that this system on average signals 1 setup for each 100 bar on a chart. I used the system to trade and 1000 bar on a chart have passed, but I only got 5 setups. Given only this result, what is the probability that I have been cheated?

Thanks in advance.

kk007

I have the following probability problem, wonder anyone who are good at maths can answer.

**The problem:**Someone sold me a trading system and claimed that this system on average signals 1 setup for each 100 bar on a chart. I used the system to trade and 1000 bar on a chart have passed, but I only got 5 setups. Given only this result, what is the probability that I have been cheated?

Thanks in advance.

kk007