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  • #7,761
  • Sep 4, 2011 3:13am Sep 4, 2011 3:13am
Quoting fontu
suffering flu few days & not that easy I find to cope this time, perhaps ageing & some turmoils going on internally or externally for a corrective move to reduce active workloads & enhance more comfort & FF may to compromise by a few months .
Thanks for asking .
fontu
Sorry to hear that, fontu.

Mind your soul. Turmoil manifests itself in many ways. Your health is key...for you and yours. Rest up, my friend.

Best,

Ken
  • #7,762
  • Edited 5:38am Sep 4, 2011 4:17am | Edited 5:38am
Good morning..

So (fundamentals aside) are we in bargain basement territory yet on E/U or is this trend starting to settle in?? Thoughts? (I'm sticking to my shakeout theory).. Although range bounded volatility has been quite exceptional this summer (which may indicate a distribution phase & long term trend reversal, although we've not had the customary long topping spike, or "Wyckoffian Spring" as I believe it's known in high circles any VSA specialists care to confirm or deny?)..

14 month bull trend channel is showing room down to the late 39xxs to 40xx's.. (Rising TL & 50% fib fan, see attached)...
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  • #7,763
  • Sep 4, 2011 4:17am Sep 4, 2011 4:17am
Quoting fontu
suffering flu few days & not that easy I find to cope this time, perhaps ageing & some turmoils going on internally or externally for a corrective move to reduce active workloads & enhance more comfort & FF may to compromise by a few months .
Thanks for asking .
fontu
Hope you get well soon Fontu..
  • #7,764
  • Sep 4, 2011 4:43am Sep 4, 2011 4:43am
http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-ch...in-wreck-55304

I think we all know the headline, but unless Merkozy can commit to an increase in funding for the EFSF or a plan for Eurobonds, the markets will continue to punish and the Euro will continue to weaken, although EURUSD will be a messy pair in the near future as QE3 is still a possibility. Eventually, Trichet will probably have to cave in and print money and that might be the impetus to put EURUSD in a downward trend rather than the current range between ~1.4 - 1.45, but I am not going to second guess what he is planning to do and whether he will change the ECB mandate. Just take each day as it comes and play the supply/demand zones.
  • #7,765
  • Sep 4, 2011 4:49am Sep 4, 2011 4:49am
Quoting FibbinArchie
Good morning..

So (fundamentals aside) are we in bargain basement territory yet on E/U or is this trend starting to settle in?? Thoughts? (I'm sticking to my shakeout theory).. Although range bounded volatility has been quite exceptional this summer..

14 month bull trend is showing room down to the late 39xxs to 40xx's..
morning Fib,
I gave this thought a lot of time. USDX-level 74.55 (1.428 for EU) was the level where a EU turn upwards should have been expected. It is clear that market is very uncertain about that 74.55 USDX level consolidating there with fierce ups and downs.
Fundamentals (and my nickname) aside I feel that piercing USDX upwards last friday (a little against news) indicates that trend of EU is turning negative and like to believe so as long as USDX stays above 74.55 (eg EU below 1.4280)
Nothing confirmed or crystal clear though.....

Attached Image
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #7,766
  • Sep 4, 2011 4:54am Sep 4, 2011 4:54am
Quoting bbakker
http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-ch...in-wreck-55304

I think we all know the headline, but unless Merkozy can commit to an increase in funding for the EFSF or a plan for Eurobonds, the markets will continue to punish and the Euro will continue to weaken, although EURUSD will be a messy pair in the near future as QE3 is still a possibility. Eventually, Trichet will probably have to cave in and print money and that might be the impetus to put EURUSD in a downward trend rather than...
Merkozy, usual political posturing, looking for the best way to package it to sell to the electorate I suspect... USD QE is the real meat, as we've witnessed over the past year the market is viewing QE as being a far greater influence than (peripheral) EZ debt... And of course, as per usual the Fed are being extra cagey on the subject...

My tuppence worth...
  • #7,767
  • Sep 4, 2011 4:56am Sep 4, 2011 4:56am
THat looks like an ending diagonal.....I still believe DXY will have dbl btm or close to one around 72
Quoting USD-Bear
morning Fib,
I gave this thought a lot of time. USDX-level 74.55 (1.428 for EU) was the level where a EU turn upwards should have been expected. It is clear that market is very uncertain about that 74.55 USDX level consolidating there with fierce ups and downs.
Fundamentals (and my nickname) aside I feel that piercing USDX upwards last friday (a little against news) indicates that trend of EU is turning negative and like to believe so as long as USDX stays above 74.55 (eg EU below 1.4280)
Nothing confirmed or crystal clear though.....

Attachment ...
  • #7,768
  • Sep 4, 2011 4:59am Sep 4, 2011 4:59am
Quoting needpips
THat looks like an ending diagonal.....I still believe DXY will have dbl btm or close to one around 72
Yea thats was my idea too, but then why not rejecting such an important 74.55 level at a moment where the news helps, bastards are cooking something
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #7,769
  • Edited 5:11am Sep 4, 2011 5:00am | Edited 5:11am
Quoting USD-Bear
morning Fib,
I gave this thought a lot of time. USDX-level 74.55 (1.428 for EU) was the level where a EU turn upwards should have been expected. It is clear that market is very uncertain about that 74.55 USDX level consolidating there with fierce ups and downs.
Fundamentals (and my nickname) aside I feel that piercing USDX upwards last friday (a little against news) indicates that trend of EU is turning negative and like to believe so as long as USDX stays above 74.55 (eg EU below 1.4280)
Nothing confirmed or crystal clear though.....

Attachment ...
Hi Bear, I'm not a great studier of the indexes, but I take it that USDX has now broken to record levels (given the cross rates with JPY & CHF)..

Re. NFP and individual economic reports generally, always a big excuse I think to wrong foot the smaller operators and short term speculators..

Would be nice to break out of this range in any case, a significant break and hold below of that 50% fan line and I would be inclined to agree with your bearish assessment...
  • #7,770
  • Sep 4, 2011 5:16am Sep 4, 2011 5:16am
Quoting USD-Bear
Yea thats was my idea too, but then why not rejecting such an important 74.55 level at a moment where the news helps, bastards are cooking something
75 is a line in the sand....its gonna kiss it then reverse...to the 72's
  • #7,771
  • Sep 4, 2011 5:24am Sep 4, 2011 5:24am
Quoting fontu
suffering flu few days & not that easy I find to cope this time, perhaps ageing & some turmoils going on internally or externally for a corrective move to reduce active workloads & enhance more comfort & FF may to compromise by a few months .
Thanks for asking .
fontu

Thats what you get when you're delayed on changing trading thread...

The flu I mean, mental drainage, stealing energy to cope with life's unexpected situations...
  • #7,772
  • Sep 4, 2011 6:57am Sep 4, 2011 6:57am
we discussed this earlier kenfy.

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...is/2011/09/02/

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  • #7,773
  • Sep 4, 2011 7:22am Sep 4, 2011 7:22am
Here is the solution: bring all the slave work which is sent to china back to the US, then kick these 4 million back to work...

Bankrupt or continue to roll....? easy call for me.....
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  • #7,774
  • Sep 4, 2011 7:48am Sep 4, 2011 7:48am

▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬.ılılıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llılılı.▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
ＳＨＵＴ　ＵＰ　ＡＮＤ　ＥＮＪＯＹ ＴＨＥ　ＭＵＳＩＣ！
▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬.ılılıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llılılı.▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬


Inserted Video

  • #7,775
  • Edited 8:47am Sep 4, 2011 8:29am | Edited 8:47am
Quoting Larseg

▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬.ılılıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llılılı.▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
ＳＨＵＴ　ＵＰ　ＡＮＤ　ＥＮＪＯＹ ＴＨＥ　ＭＵＳＩＣ！
▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬.ılılıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llılılı.▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmM0653YvXU

...
aye yai yai 40 is definitely the new 30
  • #7,776
  • Sep 4, 2011 8:45am Sep 4, 2011 8:45am
Quoting FibbinArchie
14 month bull trend channel is showing room down to the late 39xxs to 40xx's.. (Rising TL & 50% fib fan, see attached)...
actually having looked at the range and based on technical levels, a double tap or even penetration spike off of 383x (MS2 and previous spike low) before a reversal back into short to mid-term bull mode is not an absolutely outrageous consideration...
  • #7,777
  • Sep 4, 2011 8:51am Sep 4, 2011 8:51am
Quoting FibbinArchie
Hope you get well soon Fontu..
Thanks , hope so recovery soon or of larseg's mental drainage, lack of stealing power in changing thread etc .

3-5 days course & may take 1-2 weeks at best for me ok .still fine in trading just limited with safety measures on & you know 4290 breaks channel doing only anti-trend, longs without accumulation so far at any low as great shorts closed there & when saw next already broken to 1st mofu level .
eu may break now 4237 or 4171 for the next decision , do more bear or die and as this is the great turmoil month deaths may come before the death so as to no recovery possible .Big picture may remain the same still perhaps .

fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #7,778
  • Sep 4, 2011 8:53am Sep 4, 2011 8:53am
Quoting fxjawn
wulf does not even like me... he will be living with his girl by the time i get back bro.... i want to move outta the country anyway for trading....just have not figured out where yet man
I have my eyes set on the Caribbean right now... Barbados... has a fantastic shopping center called Limegrove in the middle of it all... all prestigious and what not...
  • #7,779
  • Sep 4, 2011 8:54am Sep 4, 2011 8:54am
Quoting Larseg
Thats what you get when you're delayed on changing trading thread...

The flu I mean, mental drainage, stealing energy to cope with life's unexpected situations...
What about me? I have a cold lol
  • #7,780
  • Edited 9:18am Sep 4, 2011 9:00am | Edited 9:18am
Quoting fontu
Thanks , hope so recovery soon or of larseg's mental drainage, lack of stealing power in changing thread etc .

3-5 days course & may take 1-2 weeks at best for me ok .still fine in trading just limited with safety measures on & you know 4290 breaks channel doing only anti-trend, longs without accumulation so far at any low as great shorts closed there & when saw next already broken to 1st mofu level .
eu may break now 4237 or 4171 for the next decision , do more bear or die and as this is the great turmoil month deaths may come before the...
short lived corrective pull back is possible, before bear resumption and major washout of long positions... these suckers look like they are starting to overheat a little (see attached for H4 oscillators)..

federal reserve and ecb/imf/ez are not giving away anything concrete, so the fundamental landscape is wide open to sudden and drastic change. we will have to see what transpires...

and don't forget that 40 is the new 30!!!
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