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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #3,301
  • Sep 2, 2011 7:10am Sep 2, 2011 7:10am
Quoting Oxford
Can anyone of you help me reading 2 Character Tails like those on the picture. It may help correct my mind:

When I see such a tail I think ok it's a tail, but because it's so rare I somehow begin to believe it will come down (in this case). I think in a way that it's not a proper profile and thus it must correct - somehow referencing to the structure repair function. Most probably I mix up things. Or are my settings wrong (GMT, 24h Profile)?

Please tell me how do you deal with those tails. Thank you!
this looks like EU, and the first thing to note is where value and price are. In this example, yesterday's profile came near to touching the weekly IBL 1st extension @ 4218, but did not quite complete it. The buying tail there indicates responsive buyers IMO, which is to be expected at this level. You can also see from yesterday's profile (easier if you split by session), that after the buying tail appeared, price move back through to the top of value, but was rejected as well and closed the NY session below value. IMO that responsive tail is being absorbed.

However, today's TK/LO session is balanced, which is to be expected since today is NFP. KEy will be to watch the 1.4300-4320 area for a selling tail after NFP IMO. On the other hand EU is near the bottom of the larger profile value...so short here is risky as well...this is why i'm not currently trading EU

Hope that helps.
Change is the only constant
  • #3,302
  • Sep 2, 2011 7:20am Sep 2, 2011 7:20am
Thank you for your reply. I hope you're doing well using it.

I subscribed to MD two months ago and used it for two weeks, finally I stopped using it as it did not help me in my trading style (I tested FP/Deltas, etc.); and I kinda couldn't get befriended to their MP - maybe I'm just in love with Bandung's indis .

Quoting dj0ker
I use MD only one year. I use footprint for determine high volume and minus developments. But when price come to these places I more pay attention at vertical volume, at combination of high and low vertical volume. How? I showed at the previous post.
  • #3,303
  • Sep 2, 2011 7:32am Sep 2, 2011 7:32am
I noted that VAs of the last sessions have not moved much.

However, I'm still curious how all you deal with double character tails, whether treat them the same as single character tails or not.

Quoting tgwhbb
this looks like EU, and the first thing to note is where value and price are. In this example, yesterday's profile came near to touching the weekly IBL 1st extension @ 4218, but did not quite complete it. The buying tail there indicates responsive buyers IMO, which is to be expected at this level. You can also see from yesterday's profile (easier if you split by session), that after the buying tail appeared, price move back through to the top of value, but was rejected as well and closed the NY session below value. IMO that responsive tail is...
Attached Image
  • #3,304
  • Sep 2, 2011 7:37am Sep 2, 2011 7:37am
Quoting Oxford
I noted that VAs of the last sessions have not moved much.

However, I'm still curious how all you deal with double character tails, whether treat them the same as single character tails or not.
yes i do. where i differentiate between single and double prints is when there is a second distribution after a break. Then i look at single prints, and if they turn double during the same session then that's a sign of reversal. But at tops or bottoms, i watch double prints or less.
Change is the only constant
  • #3,305
  • Sep 2, 2011 7:43am Sep 2, 2011 7:43am
Quoting Oxford
Thank you for your reply. I hope you're doing well using it.

I subscribed to MD two months ago and used it for two weeks, finally I stopped using it as it did not help me in my trading style (I tested FP/Deltas, etc.); and I kinda couldn't get befriended to their MP - maybe I'm just in love with Bandung's indis .
My advice is don't use delta, I think it's useless thing. Just look at vertical volume and support/resistance levels.

p.s. what is Bandung's indis?
  • #3,306
  • Sep 2, 2011 7:50am Sep 2, 2011 7:50am
Quoting tgwhbb
here's a trade i took earlier today on ES.

as always, keep up the good posts folks!
update, 1200 broke late yesterday NY session. Overnight 100% short, ledge seen on weekly profile broke just before NFP news. NFP caused big gap as shown in bar chart. 1180 expected support held. My SL set to 1190 just above the ledge on the weekly. Battle now between 1190 and 1180. I'm waiting till US equities open in 40 minutes to decide if i close or not, but target is still 1160.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2011-09-02 at 8.44.13 AM.png Size: 106 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #3,307
  • Sep 2, 2011 8:02am Sep 2, 2011 8:02am
Often these double prints are visited the next day, but not always. I just went quickly thru the last 100 profiles (daily) and this is the case: often revisited the next day, but not a rule.

In my opinion when double prints are produced, then there is no (strong) confidence in the market. These double prints may simply be day time frame action as we very seldom see an exceptionally large double print. This is why I'm not sure how to deal with, as with single prints it's a different story in the market.


Quoting tgwhbb
yes i do. where i differentiate between single and double prints is when there is a second distribution after a break. Then i look at single prints, and if they turn double during the same session then that's a sign of reversal. But at tops or bottoms, i watch double prints or less.
  • #3,308
  • Sep 2, 2011 8:03am Sep 2, 2011 8:03am
8:30amUSDNon-Farm Employment Change

0K actual
74Kexpected
85K previous (revised down from 117K)

ouch, that is going to hurt...
Change is the only constant
  • #3,309
  • Sep 2, 2011 8:04am Sep 2, 2011 8:04am
Quoting dj0ker
My advice is don't use delta, I think it's useless thing. Just look at vertical volume and support/resistance levels.

p.s. what is Bandung's indis?
No I've quit my subscription; as I'm trading FX I really don't even need futures data.

Bandung's indis are those we use the show MPs (TPO, Vol, etc.). See my chart above; this is a Session TPO indi. You can find them in the attachment section.

Bandung is this great developer of those indis and without doubt deservers many many thanks!!!
  • #3,310
  • Sep 2, 2011 8:04am Sep 2, 2011 8:04am
Quoting Oxford
Often these double prints are visited the next day, but not always. I just went quickly thru the last 100 profiles (daily) and this is the case: often revisited the next day, but not a rule.

In my opinion when double prints are produced, then there is no (strong) confidence in the market. These double prints may simply be day time frame action as we very seldom see an exceptionally large double print. This is why I'm not sure how to deal with, as with single prints it's a different story in the market.
as JD would say, its all about nuances...while single prints are certainly stronger than double, one thing to keep in mind is how you configure your indicator. If you have it set for each letter to represent 5 pips, that will sometimes produce different looking tails than if you have it set to 3 or 10 pips.
Change is the only constant
  • #3,311
  • Edited 10:25am Sep 2, 2011 9:00am | Edited 10:25am
Daily MP, Weekly MP & Monthly MP

http://i51.tinypic.com/2h70tqt.gif

4M MP & 1Y MP

http://i56.tinypic.com/29zbqtf.gif


I believe those pictures will speak a lot.....

KG
  • #3,312
  • Sep 2, 2011 10:43am Sep 2, 2011 10:43am
Good hint KG; we just came very close to Quarterly MP VAL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euqmp.jpg Size: 116 KB
  • #3,313
  • Sep 2, 2011 11:54am Sep 2, 2011 11:54am
Ox & Kg
Its good to see some longer term profiles! Its easy forget where we are in relation to the higher tf. OTF will always trump, smaller tf analysis.
Attached Image
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,314
  • Sep 2, 2011 12:04pm Sep 2, 2011 12:04pm
Quoting tgwhbb
this looks like EU, and the first thing to note is where value and price are. In this example, yesterday's profile came near to touching the weekly IBL 1st extension @ 4218, but did not quite complete it. The buying tail there indicates responsive buyers IMO, which is to be expected at this level. You can also see from yesterday's profile (easier if you split by session), that after the buying tail appeared, price move back through to the top of value, but was rejected as well and closed the NY session below value. IMO that responsive tail is being...
Welcome Back!!!!
I missed your uncanny ability for not missing a reference point!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,315
  • Sep 2, 2011 1:49pm Sep 2, 2011 1:49pm
Quoting Oxford
Good hint KG; we just came very close to Quarterly MP VAL.
for some reason the indy hasn't shown the last quarterly profile on my chart for 3 months now...not sure what's up with that...the last quarterly profile it is showing starts in april...anybody have this problem?
Attached Image
Change is the only constant
  • #3,316
  • Sep 2, 2011 2:07pm Sep 2, 2011 2:07pm
Quoting tgwhbb
for some reason the indy hasn't shown the last quarterly profile on my chart for 3 months now...not sure what's up with that...the last quarterly profile it is showing starts in april...anybody have this problem?
Have you tried chaning the tf?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,317
  • Sep 2, 2011 3:18pm Sep 2, 2011 3:18pm
Mine doesn't either. Dunno why. Tried changing TFs and even commenting out all the code I added to it, still no current Q1 profile. I also used the unedited original version provided by Bandung. Still shows no Q1 profile... Hmm
  • #3,318
  • Sep 2, 2011 3:29pm Sep 2, 2011 3:29pm
Quoting tgwhbb
update, 1200 broke late yesterday NY session. Overnight 100% short, ledge seen on weekly profile broke just before NFP news. NFP caused big gap as shown in bar chart. 1180 expected support held. My SL set to 1190 just above the ledge on the weekly. Battle now between 1190 and 1180. I'm waiting till US equities open in 40 minutes to decide if i close or not, but target is still 1160.
closed out at 1172 in M period after it filled the single print, although M period was rejected by VAL...I think there is still more down side to 1125 area, but always good to book some good profits, especially over along weekend!
Attached Image
Change is the only constant
  • #3,319
  • Sep 2, 2011 3:30pm Sep 2, 2011 3:30pm
Quoting Bilstein
Mine doesn't either. Dunno why. Tried changing TFs and even commenting out all the code I added to it, still no current Q1 profile. I also used the unedited original version provided by Bandung. Still shows no Q1 profile... Hmm
good i'm not alone not good for us though...
Change is the only constant
  • #3,320
  • Sep 2, 2011 3:33pm Sep 2, 2011 3:33pm
Yeah, it's weird. I actually noticed it last month but kinda wrote it off because I couldn't figure it out.
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