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AUD/USD

  • #32,881
  • Sep 2, 2011 3:04am Sep 2, 2011 3:04am
Still no sign of clear reversal yet at h4.. ..could get to 1.1 again ?.. Good Luck !!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au h4.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #32,882
  • Sep 2, 2011 3:33am Sep 2, 2011 3:33am
Hi all after 5 days holiday I'm back

Everyone is waiting for the signal also I'm but I couldn't wait for signal...
H4 RSI represents a fall down is near also MACD didnt support new highs.. ? Anyone doesnt agree, if yes,pls write why?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.jpg Size: 163 KB
  • #32,883
  • Sep 2, 2011 6:20am Sep 2, 2011 6:20am
My guess:

1st: 740
2nd: 630 (580?)
3rd: 780

Surely wrong, but who knows...
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #32,884
  • Edited 7:19am Sep 2, 2011 7:09am | Edited 7:19am
Quoting VennD
10-11hrs more .... NFP ... on overall , forecasted as favouring to AUD .... 80-300 pips plus spikes abt 10-40 pips (probably) ...

also ... there're mixed large stops since last month ... above 800 ...
20 more minutes to NFP release ... testing short scalp @ 706 ... might pick up some bids down below ...
  • #32,885
  • Sep 2, 2011 7:44am Sep 2, 2011 7:44am
With the poor NFP, hopefully AUD/USD can break 1.0764
  • #32,886
  • Sep 2, 2011 7:44am Sep 2, 2011 7:44am
Quoting VennD
20 more minutes to NFP release ... testing short scalp @ 706 ... might pick up some bids down below ...
... actual result overall favouring AUD ... closed short 706 at 691 ...

entered scalp longs @ 681 + 678 ...
  • #32,887
  • Sep 2, 2011 8:15am Sep 2, 2011 8:15am
Quoting FX-Petra
I did not buy the news spike, but bought a lot on the retest of 0720. I had a 1/2 lot from 0610, a 1/2 lot from 0650, and a full lot at 0720. I went ahead and closed all @ 0755. Yes, I am giving up 20 pips to the upside for a test of 0780, but I decided to take the nice profit and remove risk off the table. Looking now to buy a dip below 0720 or a clean break of 0780. If it does not happen before next week, that is ok. A risk free weekend sounds good to me! Good trades to all....

Regards,
Well, so much for staying out for the long weekend. Long triggered 1 lot on the spike down @ 0685. I have a target of 0770. Due to the long weekend approaching and the extra risk that entails, I have moved my stop to BE + 1. I would not normally do this, but with the resistance heavy approaching 0800 there is not a lot of upside potential.... so I am removing my downside risk.

Regards,
  • #32,888
  • Edited 8:34am Sep 2, 2011 8:21am | Edited 8:34am
Hard to play this time ...

Offers - above 725
Bids - below 680

Not much room to play .... just watch as of now ... until ...
  • #32,889
  • Sep 2, 2011 8:24am Sep 2, 2011 8:24am
why are you predicting aud to 08 ?
Although it didnt give a reversal signal yet but you know MACD & RSI don't encouraging the parity..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.jpg Size: 172 KB
  • #32,890
  • Sep 2, 2011 9:02am Sep 2, 2011 9:02am
Quoting FX-Petra
Well, so much for staying out for the long weekend. Long triggered 1 lot on the spike down @ 0685. I have a target of 0770. Due to the long weekend approaching and the extra risk that entails, I have moved my stop to BE + 1. I would not normally do this, but with the resistance heavy approaching 0800 there is not a lot of upside potential.... so I am removing my downside risk.

Regards,
Stopped out @ + 1 on the 0685 long, but another long triggered @ 0640! Going to give this one a little more room. Still target 0770 area. I'm taking a long weekend so we'll see where she stands next Tuesday. Good trades to all....

Regards,
  • #32,891
  • Sep 2, 2011 9:06am Sep 2, 2011 9:06am
short for me:
http://www.kikkichimoku.com/home/201...ort-su-h1.html
http://gyazo.com/6132baa30d202a6f9ccd6da574c47ea7.png
{Promotion Removed}
  • #32,892
  • Sep 2, 2011 9:51am Sep 2, 2011 9:51am
Quoting VennD
... actual result overall favouring AUD ... closed short 706 at 691 ...

entered scalp longs @ 681 + 678 ...
closed all scalp longs @ 686 .... left short @ 756 + long @ 626 ....
going for a nap now .... will be bck later ...
  • #32,893
  • Sep 2, 2011 10:24am Sep 2, 2011 10:24am
Quoting VennD
... actual result overall favouring AUD ... closed short 706 at 691 ...

entered scalp longs @ 681 + 678 ...
VennD the result was favoring AUD? it was favouring USD today right. Bad US economic data. And yesterday it was unfavourable to USD right i.e good US economic data....

can you kindly review this post of mine which elaborates on this?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post4854225

When it comes to AUD we need to check weather it is in over bought or over sold in the swing as well.... so from 417 there was no decent retracement so AUD USD down in case of bad US data.......

This is the kind of assesment I am able to make viewing the nature of AUD during news. It would eat SL in both direction as well.... Trying to walk through SteveFX2011 path to untangle the commotion created by news release. Lots to go.... Really enjoy learning from yours, FXPetra's, Ramses's,lasty's, steves's, smilemiz's selfless contributions..... Thank you....
  • #32,894
  • Sep 2, 2011 10:24am Sep 2, 2011 10:24am
Quoting mrbandwidth
My guess:

1st: 740
2nd: 630 (580?)
3rd: 780

Surely wrong, but who knows...

Quite accurate this time (real data) :

729
637
??
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #32,895
  • Sep 2, 2011 10:25am Sep 2, 2011 10:25am
good luck
High risk High return!
  • #32,896
  • Sep 2, 2011 1:41pm Sep 2, 2011 1:41pm
I have shorted this guy twice today ,and earn almost 100 pips .but now i want to long it .because i find the support on RSI. I am not sure about this .i does not always use the RSI indicator .but small lots and light SL.good luck to myself .and enjoy your weekend my friendS . see you next week .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 27 KB
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #32,897
  • Sep 2, 2011 2:25pm Sep 2, 2011 2:25pm
Quoting geniusztc
I have shorted this guy twice today ,and earn almost 100 pips .but now i want to long it .because i find the support on RSI. I am not sure about this .i does not always use the RSI indicator .but small lots and light SL.good luck to myself .and enjoy your weekend my friendS . see you next week .
bingo! +23 pips .is there anyone know much about the RSI ?
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #32,898
  • Sep 2, 2011 2:33pm Sep 2, 2011 2:33pm
Quoting geniusztc
I have shorted this guy twice today ,and earn almost 100 pips .but now i want to long it .because i find the support on RSI. I am not sure about this .i does not always use the RSI indicator .but small lots and light SL.good luck to myself .and enjoy your weekend my friendS . see you next week .
Analysis interesting.
Good weekend.
  • #32,899
  • Edited 6:46pm Sep 2, 2011 4:31pm | Edited 6:46pm
Quoting VennD
20 more minutes to NFP release ... testing short scalp @ 706 ... might pick up some bids down below ...
US Data was very ... very bad ... but there're bids down below need to be executed ... otherwise ... who wants to pay for all those shorts up there ?

I do not know ... what type of Investors who would want to buy USD if he is presented with the following data ...

1) US credit downgraded.

2) America fails to create jobs.

3) Private Nonfarm Payrolls / 156k ---> 17k

4) Nonfarm Payrolls (High Impact) / 85.0k ---> 0.0k

Anyways ... just trade what you believe in ...

... 5 long scalpers went in .... GL and Happy Weekend to All ...
  • #32,900
  • Sep 2, 2011 5:57pm Sep 2, 2011 5:57pm
Quoting VennD
US Data was very ... very bad ... but there're bids down below need to be executed ... otherwise ... who wants to pay for all those shorts up there ?

I do not know ... what type of Investors who would want to buy USD if he is presented with the following data ...

1) US credit downgraded.

2) America fails to create jobs.

3) Private Nonfarm Payrolls / 156k ---> 17k

4) Nonfarm Payrolls (High Impact) / 85.0k ---> 0.0k

Anyways ... just trade what you believe in ...

... 5 long scalpers went in .... GL and Happy Weekend to All ...

News trading no longer strickly works in the old-premise of Bad News equals depreciation for affected currency. You have to understand news trading in current Risk Context.

AUD is a classified as one of the "Risk Appetite Currency" and "Commodity Currency" (along with CAD to name a few) implying that AUD benefits from strong-economy of trading partners. Very Bad news from a major economy such as US implies bad economy for it's trading partners as well thus, AUD, CAD, EUR sold off.

This fundamental shift in News Trading occured in late 2008. We might see a revert to the old premise perhaps after the financial situation normalizes.
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