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  • #901
  • Sep 1, 2011 3:55pm Sep 1, 2011 3:55pm
Four hours later and not a single reply to my request for test results. Interesting...
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #902
  • Edited 4:37pm Sep 1, 2011 4:24pm | Edited 4:37pm
Quoting forexhard
Four hours later and not a single reply to my request for test results. Interesting...
Here's my first test run
GU 15M
Settings: auto rng = true Box length 20
Almost done......
28 boxes over 100 days
Looking for 2 consecutive closes outside of buffer line
12 BO's where BO candle was less than 15 pips of which only one reversed to opposite side of CZ
22 BO's w/BO bar more than 15 pips and 10 reversed more than 30 pips and 6 of those 10 reversed to opposite side of CZ
I considered every BO including multiple BO's of the same CZ
This was done by hand so some where difficult to look at and be sure of exact BO but it certainly is close to accurate.
I hope this helps.
I'll do more when I get a chance.
Barry
  • #903
  • Edited 4:52pm Sep 1, 2011 4:33pm | Edited 4:52pm
Just came up for air and saw your test request. I'll go give it a try now.

EDIT:

settings: 23 bars
AutoBoxRange: 70 days
AutoBoxFactor: 0.19
total boxes: 41
BoxBufferPips: 5

Total reversals wtih two candle closes outside the buffer: 11
Jun 1, 7,
Jul 1, 5, 8, 20, 35, 28, 29
Aug 5, 8

T.
  • #904
  • Sep 1, 2011 11:29pm Sep 1, 2011 11:29pm
Quoting forexhard
Nicastro was the 1st to get it. I look for 2 candles to close outside the buffer line.

With a teaching thread there must be some standard benchmarks or else it gets too complicated and crazy, and no one can ever agree on anything. So for this reason I stick to mainly G/U M15 charts when I post here. But this does NOT limit you guys to experimenting with any other pair or TF you want to test on your own. In fact, I am hoping that you do. There are at least 4 pairs that work well with this system, anywhere from M1 to M30. So...
Indi settings = box range set to 25p with all others at default

36 boxes calculated.

27 buys and 31 Sells = 22 reversals

Just to check meaning...

"At the same time, if the breakout candle happens to be a spike (e.g., 15 pips or more on a single breakout bar), then come back and tell me if that trade reversed by 30 pips or more."

You want a count when the breakout bar (2nd bar to close outside of CZ + buffer) was more than 15 Pips and trade reversed to other side of CZ + buffer by 30 pips or more?

Just checking I have this right?

Cheers

Altec
  • #905
  • Sep 2, 2011 1:52am Sep 2, 2011 1:52am
current stairstep trades:

short EU
short EJ
long CHFJPY
long gold - already hit TP

all modest TP due to NFP

"the market has spoken, did you listen" - best quote in forex
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  • #906
  • Sep 2, 2011 1:57am Sep 2, 2011 1:57am
I know it shows 5m chart. but I was following it on 15m chart.. the reason its 5m is because its easier for me to see the candles. . anyways

I entered at 1.4248, at 1st candle close (which I shouldn't have, because i'm impatient, supposed to wait for 2nd candle close) but got lucky this time.. . Lowered my SL to 1.42422 just in case it turns back, would get out with some +pip. . . . . Great. . it just hit it as i'm wrighting this. . eehhhhhhh......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #907
  • Sep 2, 2011 6:21am Sep 2, 2011 6:21am
Last trade for the week. Trading with this system I have made 900 bucks this week and I am looking forward to another week of breakouts. Won't be trading for the rest of the day with NFP and unemployment rates coming out.


Enjoy your weekend all
Anderson
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  • #908
  • Sep 2, 2011 9:42am Sep 2, 2011 9:42am
Quoting forexhard
Nicastro was the 1st to get it. I look for 2 candles to close outside the buffer line.

As for spike candles and false breakouts, etc: Here's the deal. Set your indis to 100 back days (the default setting), and then tweak the other general settings until you come up with 40 back boxes or less. So now you're looking at, say, 35 boxes over the last 100 days. Perfect. Now start with the very first back box and come forward, and count how many true reversals there are using my preferred 2-candle-close rule. In other words, come back...
For the purposes of this exercise I used Squalou indi boxes (default settings) and 30 pip fixed TP. There were 38 boxes in the 100 day lookback period.

I counted only the first qualifying breakout but, if the trade reversed without hitting TP, I took the the reverse trade on second consecutive close. This resulted in 26 winning trades with 12 stopped out.

Of the 38 trades, 21 of them began with a spike; these ranged from 15 to 67 pips - 15 ended as winning trades with 6 losers.
  • #909
  • Sep 2, 2011 9:43am Sep 2, 2011 9:43am
ending the week with a sneaky EU short. The rules state that time of day or week doesn't matter....we'll see if there's a late sell-off.

also got eurjpy shorts from earlier doing well. STops at BE and letting them run.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #910
  • Sep 2, 2011 9:48am Sep 2, 2011 9:48am
Quoting Swg123
For the purposes of this exercise I used Squalou indi boxes (default settings) and 30 pip fixed TP. There were 38 boxes in the 100 day lookback period.

I counted only the first qualifying breakout but, if the trade reversed without hitting TP, I took the the reverse trade on second consecutive close. This resulted in 26 winning trades with 12 stopped out.

Of the 38 trades, 21 of them began with a spike; these ranged from 15 to 67 pips - 15 ended as winning trades with 6 losers.
if I get time on sunday I'm going to repeat this exercise but doing what I've been doing with all of my stabs at this strategy so far - only going in the direction of weekly/daily trend.
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  • #911
  • Sep 2, 2011 10:27am Sep 2, 2011 10:27am
cgldsmth, I would like to disabuse you of the notion that following the trend helps in any way with this system. The attached picture speaks for itself. These trades are from this Monday & Tuesday. By following the trend you ignored these 2 fantastic breakouts. The 2 best and biggest breakouts of the week, in fact. The truth is, trades that go against the trend are often quite volatile, precisely because they are going against the trend. And volatility following a CZ is exactly what a consolidation breakout specialist is looking for.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #912
  • Sep 2, 2011 10:35am Sep 2, 2011 10:35am
I agree. For the moment though I am investigating this as an entry system into building my long-term trending positions (SL but no TP), which is my overall style.

However, as the evidence/experience grows when I have the time to chart-watch, as in the last few days, I will no doubt start some counter-trend BO trades when they arise.

very, very good stuff....thanks
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  • #913
  • Sep 2, 2011 10:38am Sep 2, 2011 10:38am
Quoting Swg123
For the purposes of this exercise I used Squalou indi boxes (default settings) and 30 pip fixed TP. There were 38 boxes in the 100 day lookback period.

I counted only the first qualifying breakout but, if the trade reversed without hitting TP, I took the the reverse trade on second consecutive close. This resulted in 26 winning trades with 12 stopped out.

Of the 38 trades, 21 of them began with a spike; these ranged from 15 to 67 pips - 15 ended as winning trades with 6 losers.
I should point out that the 30 pip TP was just for simplicity, to see if the method was profitable with a simple 1:1 R/R. In reality, with some basic trade management, there were many more pips to be had.
  • #914
  • Sep 2, 2011 10:49am Sep 2, 2011 10:49am
Quoting cluster
.... Great. . it just hit it as i'm wrighting this. . eehhhhhhh......
cluster, not only are you are trading against the rules, but you know you are. There's nothing I can do for you. Until you decide to follow the simple rules, be prepared for a lot more eehhhhhhh in your life.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #915
  • Sep 2, 2011 10:51am Sep 2, 2011 10:51am
gold
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  • #916
  • Sep 2, 2011 11:09am Sep 2, 2011 11:09am
Also maybe even for some of those 6 losers with a little trade management they could have either been Stopped out at BE or depending on the lot size pulled out for a good profit.

When the initial breakout candles are very large and I still see a second close in that direction I will take the trade but on a higher lot size with a tighter stop and TP. Normally about 5-10 pips. An effective method for those that might fear a retracement but still want to get in on the trade.


Anderson
  • #917
  • Sep 2, 2011 11:45am Sep 2, 2011 11:45am
Attached is a PDF of the worst breakouts of the last 100 days, starting with May 25th.

Since May 25th I count approximately 12 CZ breakouts that hit the SL before the TP after having triggered a correct 2-bar-close entry. The SL being set at the opposite side of the CZ, not including the buffer lines. Of the 12, I think 8 of them bounced just once, 2 bounced twice, one bounce 3 times, and one bounced 4 times, before finally choosing a firm trade direction. These results are not as stable as I have come to expect, but then again this was the summer of the so-called "default crisis", so these results are not surprising really. The best part, is that even under these extreme conditions the system still performed exceptionally well. I couldn't be happier.

All pix show G/U M15.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 12 czs.pdf   848 KB | 2,464 downloads
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #918
  • Sep 2, 2011 3:52pm Sep 2, 2011 3:52pm
Quoting Dopey
Interesting thread as it's similar to what I like to trade. I loaded up the indy and got rid of the fibs. Not knocking them, as I've used them longer than most of you've been trading (I even created my own FibNodes, for those who really know fibs). However I'd like to post a few charts just to show you an alternate exit possibility, it's based on something I learned from Alan Andrews a few years ago. His method counts the number of times each side of the range is hit, but it's not necessary. Just look at the charts, then try drawing these yourself...
I like this .
Exit strategy that makes sense (number of times box edges are hit is sign of potential magnitude of breakout, built-up pressure).
Allows higher R:R
Gives a predifined TP

Thanks Dopey
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  • #919
  • Edited 4:47pm Sep 2, 2011 4:35pm | Edited 4:47pm
Quoting cgldsmth
....makes sense (number of times box edges are hit is sign of potential magnitude of breakout, built-up pressure)....
I had this same thought many moons ago. Unfortunately, I have yet to discover any direct correlation between the number of "taps" or "tests" given to the top or the bottom of the CZ and the outcome of the impending breakout. Believe me, I wish!

But there is a silver lining here if you substitute the number of tests for the number of bars contained by the CZ, and the height of the CZ itself. Now a direct correlation is much more evident. It's all about finding those sweet spots. (Do I sound like a broken record yet? If so, is it sinking in yet? LOL). Happy hunting everyone!
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #920
  • Sep 3, 2011 5:58am Sep 3, 2011 5:58am
excellent idea,excellent indicator,now only hurdle if fake break outs.any solid plan to deal with it?
Trade responsiblypatience is the key/Swing trader
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