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  • #1,621
  • Sep 1, 2011 7:49am Sep 1, 2011 7:49am
That pretty much sums it up, it was basically a news trade rather than a trade of the reaction.

Quoting pmn100
plus important news release.
  • #1,622
  • Edited 8:09am Sep 1, 2011 7:49am | Edited 8:09am
Quoting the_wizard
Hi Cze,

.....
It is as simple as that.

One thing that always kept me out of poor trades that I would like to share with you is this simple idea. Find a trade that you think was an A grade setup ; that had everything going for it. It might be a trade you did, it might be a trade you missed. It doesn't matter. Just find it, mark up what made it A grade and then print it out.

It should be a trade that basically sums up your strategy in one go. Just like the USDCHF long trade yesterday (see a few posts back)

.....
Thanks for the welcome Tom.

I find that advice very interesting and will definately do that. I was in the USDCHF trade yesterday as well. Will use this screenshot for my wallte.
  • #1,623
  • Sep 1, 2011 8:14am Sep 1, 2011 8:14am
Looking at the H1 on the 3rd yes price has kind of just trended straight through rather than any sort of breakthrough or retest so not very clean. Other than NFP and Rate changes I don't pay much attention to the news. Why do you say crosses are not totally reliable?

Quoting pmn100
Hasn't the area already had a rounded retest back on 3rd Aug (H1 chart), so you're buying support, not resistance? That and the fact its a cross, so not totally reliable, plus important news release.
  • #1,624
  • Sep 1, 2011 9:10am Sep 1, 2011 9:10am
I would put that in the category of good setup that just didnt work out. Somtimes that happens along with missing bounces by fractions of ticks!



Quoting Dan-FX
Hi cprao,

Yes took the trade and stopped out at 1.3282. Looking at the chart after the fact my thoughts are that this is not a rounded retest. Too much time has passed since that level was broken, what do you think? I though the RN 1.33 might help produce a bounce.
  • #1,625
  • Sep 1, 2011 9:19am Sep 1, 2011 9:19am
Yup. I'm recording all trades, won, lost and missed so will try not to over analyze too much until I've got history with this setup behind me

Quoting pipz4me
I would put that in the category of good setup that just didnt work out. Somtimes that happens along with missing bounces by fractions of ticks!
  • #1,626
  • Sep 1, 2011 9:34am Sep 1, 2011 9:34am
Hi Tom,

After yesterdays accurately predicted bounce from the USDCHF 0.7990 ish support level the market has now continued back down to this level and through it..

If I understand correctly the idea is to take the only the first pullback after the rounded retest as above - ..but would or do you take trades in the direction of the move expecting the level not to hold on the second smaller rounded retest as today - or would you instead wait for the level to now become resistance and wait for a pullback there before perhaps shorting the level?

Or has this level become a bit messy now?

Hope I hav'nt made this too confusing ..
thx
  • #1,627
  • Sep 1, 2011 11:17am Sep 1, 2011 11:17am
Quoting Dan-FX
Hi cprao,

Yes took the trade and stopped out at 1.3282. Looking at the chart after the fact my thoughts are that this is not a rounded retest. Too much time has passed since that level was broken, what do you think? I though the RN 1.33 might help produce a bounce.
Hi Dan,

trade worked for me, but a bit lower at 1.327. Took a loss on chfjpy today though.

Regards,
David.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.png Size: 13 KB
  • #1,628
  • Sep 1, 2011 1:10pm Sep 1, 2011 1:10pm
Good work Although this is one trade in many I think for me there is a lesson to be learned and that is to take trades with less ambiguous levels.

Quoting trader_dscha
Hi Dan,

trade worked for me, but a bit lower at 1.327. Took a loss on chfjpy today though.

Regards,
David.
  • #1,629
  • Sep 1, 2011 7:02pm Sep 1, 2011 7:02pm
I just closed this trade at BE since the daily is closed below the level.

I am not sure whether it is a bad trade or the trade just did not work out.
  • #1,630
  • Sep 1, 2011 7:53pm Sep 1, 2011 7:53pm
Any thoughts ?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily-CADJPY-BR-Analysis-9-1-2011 7-49-32 PM.jpg Size: 71 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: D-H4-AUDUSD-BR-Analysis9-1-2011 7-46-05 PM.jpg Size: 71 KB
  • #1,631
  • Sep 1, 2011 11:39pm Sep 1, 2011 11:39pm
Nice Level on EURAUD.
Has been resistance last and price coming back to it from above.

http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/3188/euraus.png
  • #1,632
  • Sep 2, 2011 12:47am Sep 2, 2011 12:47am
Morning,

Picked another one with ambiguous levels and got it wrong. The solid lines were entry exit, the dashed lines marked in after the fact, highlighting better entry. It bounced on my stop!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,633
  • Sep 2, 2011 1:01am Sep 2, 2011 1:01am
Any thoughts on these. I don't think EURCHF is that clear cut or obvious but I do like NZDJPY.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: nzdjpy.jpg Size: 89 KB
  • #1,634
  • Sep 2, 2011 1:01am Sep 2, 2011 1:01am
Quoting Dan-FX
Morning,

Picked another one with ambiguous levels and got it wrong. The solid lines were entry exit, the dashed lines marked in after the fact, highlighting better entry. It bounced on my stop!
Hi Dan,

your stop was the entry! I'd give more weight to recent highs. Good trade. Too bad I didn't notice it.

Regards,
David.
  • #1,635
  • Sep 2, 2011 1:12am Sep 2, 2011 1:12am
NJ has been on my radar and call alerts for awhile now...slow mover.

Quoting Dan-FX
Any thoughts on these. I don't think EURCHF is that clear cut or obvious but I do like NZDJPY.
  • #1,636
  • Sep 2, 2011 1:17am Sep 2, 2011 1:17am
what do you lads think of this concept?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1258395331
  • #1,637
  • Sep 2, 2011 1:21am Sep 2, 2011 1:21am
you need to look further left


Quoting dddd
what do you lads think of this concept?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1258395331
  • #1,638
  • Sep 2, 2011 1:28am Sep 2, 2011 1:28am
Quoting pipz4me
you need to look further left
i agree. the concept is that, when you have a hook like that-- it is a strong positive indication that buy orders are laying below the hook. so, then price touches the s/r levels they willl bounce. these charts illustrate what i mean:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1314686333

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1314688689

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1314688871

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1314732886
  • #1,639
  • Sep 2, 2011 1:49am Sep 2, 2011 1:49am
I think that bounces prior to a level are certainly indicating that you are approaching an area of strength, but wouldnt necessarily reinforce the level I am looking to go long at, if anything it may put me off. In other words it may be indicating that price is about to break through the main level. Hope that makes sense

Quoting dddd
i agree. the concept is that, when you have a hook like that-- it is a strong positive indication that buy orders are laying below the hook. so, then price touches the s/r levels they willl bounce. these charts illustrate what i mean:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1314686333

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1314688689

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1314688871

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1314732886...
  • #1,640
  • Sep 2, 2011 2:19am Sep 2, 2011 2:19am
Quoting Dan-FX
Looking at the H1 on the 3rd yes price has kind of just trended straight through rather than any sort of breakthrough or retest so not very clean. Other than NFP and Rate changes I don't pay much attention to the news. Why do you say crosses are not totally reliable?
I've attached the H1 chart of E/A. To me, the 1.3300 has already had a rounded retest (upward arrow). So I wouldn't be looking to buy this area on touch. Compare that level to the one below where the highs (downward arrow) were not retested for support, until yesterday, where the long orders sitting there took effect.

As for news, if you don't pay attention to it, that's up to you. I think it can add an extra edge to your trading, even if its just staying out of a trade, specifically if your order is sitting a few pips from price when a news release comes along.

As for crosses I find them a bit more erratic, and unreliable compared to the majors. Afterall, the crosses are made up of the movements of the majors. So EUR/AUD is made up of the movements of E/U and A/U. Big stand out daily support, resistance, price action continues to work out okay, but intraday you'd do well to keep an eye on the movements of E/U and A/U to trade E/A effectively. For example, E/U approaches resistance, A/U approaches support, do you really want to go long E/A if a trade opportunity presented itself?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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