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  • #10,141
  • Aug 31, 2011 5:41am Aug 31, 2011 5:41am
Something to consider this morning...

EURNZD finally found its support on 50% Fibonacci.
Is this the end of its downtrend journey?
It’s been consolidating in this area since Monday.
After nearly 4% downtrend isn’t a time for a small recovery, take profits and retracement?

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  • #10,142
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:42am Aug 31, 2011 8:42am
As for now (2.45pm London) 0.8880 level stays upheld and EURGBP is heading down to 0.8820 (PINK LINE) zone.
This would be a battlefield for bulls & bears and it’ll probably set up a new trend for rest of the week.

This level is very important.
a) If 0.8820 breaks we will have pretty nice double top with green lights opened to see next targets below @ 0.8700 (RED LINE)

b)If sustains we can start thinking about levels above 0.8880 (GREEN) but first 0.8900 has to be taken.
If broken, there's a massive amount of bears stop-loss orders above 0.8900 so it can be a very dynamic move.

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  • #10,143
  • Sep 1, 2011 6:16am Sep 1, 2011 6:16am
Hi "nearly naked" traders

This is for those trading CHF
The end of the week would be very interesting.
Pay attention on today’s ISM at 3.00pm (London time)
Please note that expectations are very low this time.
First time in last two years (August 2009) expectations are so low , below 50. Just like during "bank crisis" back in 2009.
This is psychological test for investors.

If now, even such low figures disappoint the market again, I believe all trades will rush for buying “safe heaven” swiss frankie again.
And this could be a massive move testing new lows.
On the other hand, if data will be a positive surprise, we can see EURCHF returning to its highs up again...

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  • #10,144
  • Sep 1, 2011 7:59am Sep 1, 2011 7:59am
Quoting halkins
Hi "nearly naked" traders

This is for those trading CHF
The end of the week would be very interesting.
Pay attention on today’s ISM at 3.00pm (London time)
Please note that expectations are very low this time.
First time in last two years (August 2009) expectations are so low , below 50. Just like during "bank crisis" back in 2009.
This is psychological test for investors.

If now, even such low figures disappoint the market again, I believe all trades will rush for buying “safe...
Hi,
great one notice by you here. data below expectations could lead to some more panic to investors. most indexes and data is approaching crisis levels so it's important to watch how we react at these levels. IF break down, this could be dramatic if we hold, vix down and we can be more calm IMO
cheers
  • #10,145
  • Sep 2, 2011 12:23am Sep 2, 2011 12:23am
Dow monthly.

Yearly midpoint and quarterly support at 10400 held so I am bullish on the indicies up into the blue highs at 13921 this year or next year which is currently 13464.

I don't think we will see the big unwind everyone seems to be looking for until later next year.
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  • #10,146
  • Sep 2, 2011 5:05am Sep 2, 2011 5:05am
Good morning traders.

Finally at the end of the week I could spot some clear new trends setups developing.
I put them all to my “WATCH LIST” and keep observing on smaller time frames.
Probably I’ll take some, although today’s Non Farm can definitely change a technical view, either help in or deny my plans.

There's also couple more.
Non-Farm would be a turning point for most of forex pairs
Here are some for your consideration this morning:

AUDCAD
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EURNZD
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EURZAR
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  • #10,147
  • Sep 2, 2011 7:18am Sep 2, 2011 7:18am
Quoting halkins
Good morning traders.

Finally at the end of the week I could spot some clear new trends setups developing.
I put them all to my “WATCH LIST” and keep observing on smaller time frames.
Probably I’ll take some, although today’s Non Farm can definitely change a technical view, either help in or deny my plans.

There's also couple more.
Non-Farm would be a turning point for most of forex pairs
[font=Verdana]Here...
i am interested in seeing how it pans out.
  • #10,148
  • Sep 4, 2011 7:20pm Sep 4, 2011 7:20pm
Quoting amyc
Dow monthly.

Yearly midpoint and quarterly support at 10400 held so I am bullish on the indicies up into the blue highs at 13921 this year or next year which is currently 13464.

I don't think we will see the big unwind everyone seems to be looking for until later next year.

Please keep posting...I have been looking for you.. I have come up with a bastardized version of your trading .. gleaned from infomation u posted on your Journal.. and based mainly on weekly chart ranges.. but with month and other time frames in the back ground..as my confidence in it grows it has been working exceptionaly well..for me..
  • #10,149
  • Sep 4, 2011 7:49pm Sep 4, 2011 7:49pm
Due to the US holiday. I'll be sending the Bookie Report out on Tuesday only this week.
Other than that, Ill have some charts up soon.
  • #10,150
  • Sep 5, 2011 5:32am Sep 5, 2011 5:32am
Hi Traders, Saxon
Here’s a quick review of my suggestions from previous week.

GBPDKK
Last Monday I put forward GBPDKK - long.
I entered this on Monday and suffered all ups and downs for first 3 days.
I even wanted to get out on breakeven.
Finally on Thursday it got a huge kick and went up.
I caught over 1.50% and closed the trade
Its momentum has slowly evaporated and there’s no sense to keep it opened.

EURGBP
Perfectly slid down as expected but I didn’t get into this trade.
Now I am thinking of going long.

EURNZD
Unfortunately I was kicked out by wacky spike only to see it went where I wanted hours later… Well, it’s painful to see your stop loss triggered and then price goes back
I think my fingers burnt and I got into the trade too early...

EURZAR
I suggested EURZAR but finally traded USDZAR.
Now I am 1.20% in profits, SL on breakeven and I still keep it open…
Guys, I love trading ZAR (South African Rand)
I think this pair is ideal for trading.
I don’t know why this is ignored by most of traders.
You just buy low, sell high, consolidation and down again sell high, buy low, consolidation ha ha, and again buy low…
Just look on 1-2DAY charts on USDZAR or EURZAR (except August)
Perfect candle bars without choppy & false ups and downs.
It made me nice profits this year.

AUDCAD
Nice trade. I still keep it opened. Closed half after some profits occured, SL on breakeven and now I just let it run… we'll see

That's all folks.
Hope to see some nice suggestions later on...
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  • #10,151
  • Sep 5, 2011 5:59am Sep 5, 2011 5:59am
The FORCE is with you, pipmeister.

Quoting halkins
Hi Traders, Saxon
Here’s a quick review of my suggestions from previous week.

GBPDKK
Last Monday I put forward GBPDKK - long.
I entered this on Monday and suffered all ups and downs for first 3 days.
I even wanted to get out on breakeven.
Finally on Thursday it got a huge kick and went up.
I caught over 1.50% and closed the trade
[font=Verdana]Its momentum has slowly evaporated and...
  • #10,152
  • Sep 7, 2011 6:43am Sep 7, 2011 6:43am
Hi Traders
After yesterday SwissQuake there’s not many nice setups today.
What I found this morning was EURUSD going long

It found support on 1.4000, found support on 1Day - 200SMA, it found support also on 23.60% Fibonacci.
Many oscillators got into OVERSOLD area as well.
I am watching this closely...


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  • #10,153
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:54am Sep 8, 2011 10:54am
Hi Guys...
Where's everybody ???
I need to wake you up lads.

USDCAD
I think now it's THE time for a small retracement and going long.
It has found support on 38,20% Fibonacci, S/R line on 0.98200 wasn't broken and some indicators are oversold.
I also found pretty divergance on 30 min chart.
I am LONG from 0.98350 but I wouldn't expect some fireworks and go above 0.98950 area...
Anyway some 50-70 pips to grab if trend sustains...
Poor risk-reward ratio... so it's not worth to overtrade!

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  • #10,154
  • Sep 8, 2011 11:53am Sep 8, 2011 11:53am
EU has broken LTL, looking for fibs to the south
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  • #10,155
  • Sep 8, 2011 11:55am Sep 8, 2011 11:55am
EG
Might see target to the south now. Hopefully at confluence of LTL
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  • #10,156
  • Sep 8, 2011 6:13pm Sep 8, 2011 6:13pm
EU should be getting close to its next long term buy point, once it has made a lower low than 1.3837 on the 12th July then I will be looking to buy support. This should come in between 1.37-38. Target should be 1.58 in the next 6 or so months.
  • #10,157
  • Sep 8, 2011 7:30pm Sep 8, 2011 7:30pm
Quoting amyc
EU should be getting close to its next long term buy point, once it has made a lower low than 1.3837 on the 12th July then I will be looking to buy support. This should come in between 1.37-38. Target should be 1.58 in the next 6 or so months.
Wow... You're a position trader? I personally try to trade retracements and the main trend and consolidation to maximize profits. But good idea
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,158
  • Sep 9, 2011 9:17am Sep 9, 2011 9:17am
Hi Guys…
I'm thinking trading CHF is risky business…
However today I can resist a feeling this could be a good trade.

CADCHF reached important support/resistance area @ 0.8880
The market is highly overbought and I am expecting a small retracement down to 0.83600.
Ha ha, “a small retracement” in CADCHF means a massive 5% profits if succeed.
I think to jump into this trade with smaller position then usually as risk-reward ratio is very promising...
If I had to keep this position opened over weekend I must take care of wider spreads when markets are closed, which can accidentaly close the position.

Well, I keep an eye on it...
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  • #10,159
  • Sep 10, 2011 12:31pm Sep 10, 2011 12:31pm
A Goodie
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Annoying Precision
  • #10,160
  • Sep 11, 2011 7:02am Sep 11, 2011 7:02am
Hi Guys
First time in last few weeks I am changing my long-term sentiment on USDCAD form bearish to bullish.

 

  1. On weekly chart ideal double bottom has been formed.
  2. When applying Fibonacci extension tool to the last upper leg it says price could reach as high as 1.02500 before loosing momentum.
  3. Also 1.0250 is previous strong support/resistance area
  4. Also it's 23.60% Fibonacci… Wow, couldn’t be better
  5. The same is on daily chart; all seems to be bullish, if only some bad news not spoil it.

Now I am focused on finding good entry point, which I think could be around 0,9900 -0,9950 zone.
Surely it could be some micky-mouse trading at parity zone, as always is.
If broken I am expecting a long green candle, as many bears have left their stop loss orders above 1.0000 which will trigger a chain reaction.
Certainly BULLISH scenario is denied if price falls and closes below 0,9900 on daily.

Ha ha, yeah, bears in Europe sleep whole damn winter… and I think their Canadian fellows want to do the same.

Here's a weekly chart

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