What i wan to accomplish with this thread is to, discuss ideas on trading and how to efficiently use our resources to make sound, discretionary trading decisions. So discussion input, and clarifications are welcomed.
we all hear the old cliche 95% of traders fail, and some how everyone seems to believe there is a hidden EDGE, a secret that eludes traders from obtaining their goals. i believe however that there in fact is no secret and that the so talked about edge does not exist.
through out the trading world there is countless strategies, systems, theories, and all in my opinion have at their core one fundamental flaw. THE PREDICTION OF PRICE ITS SELF, that cannot be predicted.
i am not going to give a lecture here on market structure, but if you knew how money is created and how we came about our wonderful free floating currencies, this becomes more obvious, money is not just a financial instrument, it is a political instrument. the Federal Reserve who can print dollars, the very standard of measurement, in the system whether you are trading EUR/USD or CHF/YEN (usd/chf vs usd/jpy) its all dollar based. the Central Banks, Inter Banks, Corporations, institutions, hedge funds etc are all moving money around some times for profit sometimes not intentionally for profit, but they all want to reduce risk.
now we somehow got fooled into thinking that elliot wave, harmonics, patterns, formations, bollinger bands, stochastics, moving averages, macd, parabollic sars, etc can predict when why an institution is hitting the book with massive blocks of orders, or an Bank moving their reserves.
i dont believe technical tools are useless i just want to debate on the PROPER use of them.
starting with the moving averages, calculating x amount of candles, to average a price. but why? is it that we want to know what the average price of the last 12 is ? dont tell me interactive support and resistance, or smoothing effect, if you take away that anoying lagging line of the and just use the AVERAGE what does the average really tell us?
momentum? acceleration from the average price?
we could do that with candles alone? standard deviation? like a bollinger band measure of volatility? a perspective of high or low price?
what are RELEVANT measures, that we need to know about the market we are trading, an environment where oncoming price feed moves quotes in either direction with our candles painting a picture on a chart, and chopping it into blocks of time creating ARTIFICIAL time frames that in reality do not exist.
my contribution to this debate is that in order to make rational, discretionary trading decisions we need to know.
volatility= variation in price over time, to know what are the realistic deviations
capacity= probable or possible sustainability of an environment or how many pips is realistic to extract from the market.
conviction in order flow = strong opinion or prevalence in orders which appears as direction in the charts (bull ,bear, ranging)
velocity= related to range and usual pips traveled per trading day/hour etc
momentum= acceleration/deceleration of quotes moving away in either direction (big candles smaller candles) between selling and buying pressure there is a stall in direction or a delay that can be exploited
looking forward to sharing views and ideas
we all hear the old cliche 95% of traders fail, and some how everyone seems to believe there is a hidden EDGE, a secret that eludes traders from obtaining their goals. i believe however that there in fact is no secret and that the so talked about edge does not exist.
through out the trading world there is countless strategies, systems, theories, and all in my opinion have at their core one fundamental flaw. THE PREDICTION OF PRICE ITS SELF, that cannot be predicted.
i am not going to give a lecture here on market structure, but if you knew how money is created and how we came about our wonderful free floating currencies, this becomes more obvious, money is not just a financial instrument, it is a political instrument. the Federal Reserve who can print dollars, the very standard of measurement, in the system whether you are trading EUR/USD or CHF/YEN (usd/chf vs usd/jpy) its all dollar based. the Central Banks, Inter Banks, Corporations, institutions, hedge funds etc are all moving money around some times for profit sometimes not intentionally for profit, but they all want to reduce risk.
now we somehow got fooled into thinking that elliot wave, harmonics, patterns, formations, bollinger bands, stochastics, moving averages, macd, parabollic sars, etc can predict when why an institution is hitting the book with massive blocks of orders, or an Bank moving their reserves.
i dont believe technical tools are useless i just want to debate on the PROPER use of them.
starting with the moving averages, calculating x amount of candles, to average a price. but why? is it that we want to know what the average price of the last 12 is ? dont tell me interactive support and resistance, or smoothing effect, if you take away that anoying lagging line of the and just use the AVERAGE what does the average really tell us?
momentum? acceleration from the average price?
we could do that with candles alone? standard deviation? like a bollinger band measure of volatility? a perspective of high or low price?
what are RELEVANT measures, that we need to know about the market we are trading, an environment where oncoming price feed moves quotes in either direction with our candles painting a picture on a chart, and chopping it into blocks of time creating ARTIFICIAL time frames that in reality do not exist.
my contribution to this debate is that in order to make rational, discretionary trading decisions we need to know.
volatility= variation in price over time, to know what are the realistic deviations
capacity= probable or possible sustainability of an environment or how many pips is realistic to extract from the market.
conviction in order flow = strong opinion or prevalence in orders which appears as direction in the charts (bull ,bear, ranging)
velocity= related to range and usual pips traveled per trading day/hour etc
momentum= acceleration/deceleration of quotes moving away in either direction (big candles smaller candles) between selling and buying pressure there is a stall in direction or a delay that can be exploited
looking forward to sharing views and ideas
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM