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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #3,241
  • Aug 29, 2011 3:43pm Aug 29, 2011 3:43pm
Quoting mzvega
eur/usd

SSHHHHHHHH!!!, I think I see a bear, you might scare him away!
  • #3,242
  • Aug 29, 2011 3:50pm Aug 29, 2011 3:50pm
Quoting Evak
Sorry folks, a typo was found in the daily tpo indi code. I have corrected it & also updated the daily template. The session ones are ok as Neo have pointed out.
Thank you, all working like a charm now. I re-installed MT4 Build 402 and my charts are back up and running fast like they were. I have 8 MT4 instances installed (all different brokers), seems all the brokers that went to Build 406 are running very sluggish...some are taking a whole minute to load the charts when first starting...and changing from template to profile is very slow. Back to 402 and fast again.

Regards,
Neo
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #3,243
  • Aug 29, 2011 4:23pm Aug 29, 2011 4:23pm
Quoting Bilstein
Sshhhhhhh!!!!.........Bil, you might piss him off!!!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,244
  • Aug 29, 2011 5:47pm Aug 29, 2011 5:47pm
Quoting mzvega
eur/usd

SSHHHHHHHH!!!, I think I see a bear, you might scare him away!
  • #3,245
  • Aug 29, 2011 8:59pm Aug 29, 2011 8:59pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
when you decide the structure of the profile you take the whole day or the sessions separately?
thank's, sorin.
  • #3,246
  • Aug 29, 2011 10:34pm Aug 29, 2011 10:34pm
Quoting s7c
when you decide the structure of the profile you take the whole day or the sessions separately?
thank's, sorin.
For me it’s a little bit of “confluence”. Is the smaller profile supporting what the larger one is telling me? Or is it is it developing into something contrary? I use the smaller tf profiles to take a better position within the context of larger tf.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,247
  • Edited 7:55am Aug 30, 2011 6:58am | Edited 7:55am
Quoting Kang_Gun
Thanks Kave, it's very clear...

KG
Did u manage to grab that short? There was a nice engulfing after Frankfurt open just prior to UK opening initiative sell down...just like EU after yesterdays elongated balance day...

Anyway expect excess running pass PS & even 6250 b4 it springs up after this excessive short, so this could be the secondary test i mark previously as ST*

For GU the quarter level (250 pip increment level) are very well respected. I call this pair the "Quarter pounder pair"

http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/6940/...3aug302200.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
  • #3,248
  • Aug 30, 2011 7:24am Aug 30, 2011 7:24am
Quoting Oxford
Kave, here my two questions:

- which resources on Wyckoff do you suggest?
- which broker (for data/demo) do you use (besides broco)?

Thanks,
Ox
Broco demo is use for ES & the futures volume. Not great but good. Live broker includes GO markets,Divisafx & Pepperstone. All are aussie broker but i m not residing there nor am i one. Just that i have good experience with them as i previously work there for awhile. GO use mix of bank feeds & currenex. Divisafx bridge direct to Currenex. Pepperstone i am still trying the Raw deal feed.. but is commission base with tight spread. Other live account that i use is Oanda (more for 1:1 trades) - (They have nice volume). Thinkorswim for occasional ES trades & they have good profile tools there..

As for Wyckoff, is a tough one to recommend is because i am mostly self thought & the only reading materials i swear by is the Wyckoff schematics
& one of the forum here posted by this VSA expert call lascavel who was the only person i know uses Wyckoff on forex. Unfortunately he did not post alot but enough to influence me. I will scour anything left if i can find in my other PC of any resource & i will let u know..no promise though as i may have lost them due to my previous HDD crash.
  • #3,249
  • Aug 30, 2011 7:53am Aug 30, 2011 7:53am
missed this D...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: missed-this-d.PNG Size: 106 KB
...
  • #3,250
  • Aug 30, 2011 7:53am Aug 30, 2011 7:53am
Quoting Evak
Did u manage to grab that short? There was a nice engulfing after Frankfurt open just prior to UK opening initiative sell down...just like EU after yesterdays elongated balance day...

Anyway expect excess running pass PS & even 6250 b4 it springs up after this excessive short, so this could be the secondary test i mark previously as PS.

For GU the quarter level (250 pip increment level) are very well respected. I call this pair the "Quarter pounder pair"

http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/6940/...3aug302200.gif

Uploaded...
YES, very nice pips.. already close hehehehehe. Now, i'm looking for BUY hehehe

KG
  • #3,251
  • Aug 30, 2011 7:57am Aug 30, 2011 7:57am
Quoting bandung
missed this D...
Yeah elongated...but that is not the tip off. The one that crack this nut was at the opening initiates of yesterday UK way off that unfair high...: big smiles...
  • #3,252
  • Aug 30, 2011 8:26am Aug 30, 2011 8:26am
Quoting Evak
Yeah elongated...but that is not the tip off. The one that crack this nut was at the opening initiates of yesterday UK way off that unfair high...: big smiles...
noted that keyword Kave... Initiative after the Unfair
tell me if you named something else
...
  • #3,253
  • Aug 30, 2011 8:43am Aug 30, 2011 8:43am
Quoting bandung
missed this D...
When uk open price reached 3xIB, i buy 3 times, all being stop out at +1, may be asian Seasion tmrow will do the job to balance inventory, but now it seems like seller are eyeing on the spike base again,
  • #3,254
  • Edited 9:09am Aug 30, 2011 8:59am | Edited 9:09am
Quoting alexm
When uk open price reached 3xIB, i buy 3 times, all being stop out at +1, may be asian Seasion tmrow will do the job to balance inventory, but now it seems like seller are eyeing on the spike base again,
ya.. it seem the seller wanted that spike base.. again
now price already hesitate to move up further, 14450 seem holding...

edit: goin with the wind blow..
ah.. that navigator window ruin my chart art..
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  • #3,255
  • Edited 10:12am Aug 30, 2011 10:08am | Edited 10:12am
If we were looking at the weekly IB in relation to “opening types” Id definately say this is looking very “open-test-drive” or "open rejection reverse". If you consider the first “2 days” as the first 2 30m bars on a daily IB. Yesterday, the first day of the delvoping wIB, we opened tested a major reference point all day. If it was “open drive” we would have continue to drive higher (initiative). So after yesterday PA “open test” it would be logical it would end “open test drive” or "open rejection reverse". Open test while we are above (over)value on the monthly, (over)value previous weeks vah Is bearish imo. If price was really going higher OTF would have been initiative, we would have opened and drove higher without ever looking back. Just my opinion, based on a slightly larger perspective. The wib wont actually be complete until the close
Bil, I had a feeling you were going to piss that bear off!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,256
  • Aug 30, 2011 6:44pm Aug 30, 2011 6:44pm
So, dunno if anyone is interested but I just finished incorporating a "range estimation" into the MP indicator. What I did was calculate an EMA of the open, high, and low for the last "LookBack" [whatever you set it to look back] periods.

Afterwards, the average open is subtracted from the average high.
Then the average low is subtracted from the average open.

This gives you the average "upward fluctuation" and "downward fluctuation"..

The average UF is then added to the current open and the average DF is subtracted from the current open which gives you a range estimation.

I got the idea re-reading MoM where Steidlemeyer talks about range estimations. Essentially, it will provide us with points of reference to look for buying/selling tails and acceptance above/below. I typically use 21 days worth of profiles and looking back, doesn't seem too shabby. I'm terribly exhausted from work and am still no pro-coder so if anyone cares/is interested, let's bounce some ideas off one another!
  • #3,257
  • Aug 30, 2011 8:44pm Aug 30, 2011 8:44pm
Quoting alexm
When uk open price reached 3xIB, i buy 3 times, all being stop out at +1, may be asian Seasion tmrow will do the job to balance inventory, but now it seems like seller are eyeing on the spike base again,
Just a tip here bro..

Your stops may have been too tight i suppose...

But the following reference may help to get confluence instead of just targeting 3xIB by itself...

Session IB I look for previous UK low of Monday as a springboard, put it simply, UK session traders would look for any previous low where they initiate or response from, so to speak.
http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/6...4aug311130.gif


For daily profile using UK open. Previous control of around 4375 is the reference. note also the round number of 4400. Personally if & have limit buy from this round number, my initial risk is always set to 25pips which have work for me.

I mark the anomalies(unfinish control) as here price would potential create a control price in the future
http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/842...5aug311137.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
  • #3,258
  • Aug 30, 2011 10:07pm Aug 30, 2011 10:07pm
Thank you very much Kave!

Quoting Evak
Broco demo is use for ES & the futures volume. Not great but good. Live broker includes GO markets,Divisafx & Pepperstone. All are aussie broker but i m not residing there nor am i one. Just that i have good experience with them as i previously work there for awhile. GO use mix of bank feeds & currenex. Divisafx bridge direct to Currenex. Pepperstone i am still trying the Raw deal feed.. but is commission base with tight spread. Other live account that i use is Oanda (more for 1:1 trades) - (They have nice volume). Thinkorswim for occasional ES...
  • #3,259
  • Aug 30, 2011 10:09pm Aug 30, 2011 10:09pm
Topic: The Firt Hour: Early Trade and Shakeout Period - Decision Fatigue

http://vimeo.com/28384436
  • #3,260
  • Aug 30, 2011 10:11pm Aug 30, 2011 10:11pm
Quoting Bilstein
So, dunno if anyone is interested but I just finished incorporating a "range estimation" into the MP indicator. What I did was calculate an EMA of the open, high, and low for the last "LookBack" [whatever you set it to look back] periods.

Afterwards, the average open is subtracted from the average high.
Then the average low is subtracted from the average open.

This gives you the average "upward fluctuation" and "downward fluctuation"..

The average UF is then added to the current open and the average DF is subtracted from the current...
I would be very interested! I already track that sort of info manually on a spreadsheet.(open to high, open to low close to close, high to close, low to close). But that would be of great value to track some of that on the chart. You mentioned an "EMA", interesting.....might you think a "volume weighted ma" putting more weight to the volume of prices be a better fit? Also, I am very interested in tracking & calculating excess & range extention. If you have an excess above, and an incomplete profile you can estimate by swinging that amount beneath the profile to estimate how far price might go to complete the bell curve. Im not sure if Im explaining myself correctly. But I think theres a way to gauge how long or short OTF by tracking excess and or range extention above and below. For a balanced profile (distribution) any selling excess above should be countered met with equal buying excess. if not there is still a certain amount of that OTF excess still short. Am I making a little sense? But I would be very interested, in any ideas you have!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
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