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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #27,041
  • Aug 30, 2011 1:58pm Aug 30, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting cuthbert
Just a Hi from my side. I had been ill for some time and could not do any trading. The thread is very slow these days. Hope to see you all.


Regards
Bert

Because He isn't around :-(

Plamen
Bah...
  • #27,042
  • Aug 30, 2011 4:41pm Aug 30, 2011 4:41pm
Quoting plamendp
Because He isn't around :-(

Plamen
Hi All!
Any word how FTI is doing?
Thanks,
J
  • #27,043
  • Aug 31, 2011 12:11pm Aug 31, 2011 12:11pm
Quoting Jaro
Hi All!
Any word how FTI is doing?
Thanks,
J
ANy news of Chief...


V
  • #27,044
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:36pm Aug 31, 2011 8:36pm
Quoting Fana
Hi Friends! I am looking for some trading books. Can be also about trading history and so... Additional material... Please, recommend. Thank you.
I would recommend Sam Seiden. His information will give strong insight into why price moves the way it does. He has some of the best explanations on why trading is a counter intuitive profession.

Take your time with these concepts, really understand and apply them. They are consistent in all markets and time frames.

TSD
  • #27,045
  • Aug 31, 2011 11:27pm Aug 31, 2011 11:27pm
hi all,

want to ask a question.
as we know that price is made by interbanks with EBS/Reuters right?

if it's right, can hedge funds use EBS/Reuters directly too, like the interbanks use it?

thanks. please answer.
  • #27,046
  • Sep 2, 2011 11:30am Sep 2, 2011 11:30am
Quoting FelixHartono
hi all,

want to ask a question.
as we know that price is made by interbanks with EBS/Reuters right?

if it's right, can hedge funds use EBS/Reuters directly too, like the interbanks use it?

thanks. please answer.
Hedge funds typically deal under a giveup arrangement where the actual bank deals on their behalf.
So no they do not have access to the interbank.They are still dealing with a bank.

What EBS/Reuters/BARX/Autobahn/Currenex ECN etc.. are are properietary dealing platforms with proprietary price feeds.
Each is being shaded, each can be arb'd and each is not the interbank rather a representation of it.

Hope it clears it up.
  • #27,047
  • Sep 2, 2011 11:37am Sep 2, 2011 11:37am
Hi everyone, hope you are all well. I miss fti and hope he is well, very worried about him now. It is the end of a busy trading week. NFP was terrible this morning and Pre. O is in deep trouble, as is the US economy. Greece is causing problems for the ECB, EC, IMF, etc. Next week should be very intersting and a lot of fun to trade. Hope you all have a great weekend.
  • #27,048
  • Sep 2, 2011 11:41am Sep 2, 2011 11:41am
Quoting GEfx
Hi everyone, hope you are all well. I miss fti and hope he is well, very worried about him now. It is the end of a busy trading week. NFP was terrible this morning and Pre. O is in deep trouble, as is the US economy. Greece is causing problems for the ECB, EC, IMF, etc. Next week should be very intersting and a lot of fun to trade. Hope you all have a great weekend.
Hi GE, thanks.
Hope your trading is OK as well.
Diddo, fti is missed.
Rgds
  • #27,049
  • Edited 12:30pm Sep 2, 2011 12:16pm | Edited 12:30pm
Hi friends! Happy weekend:-)
I also miss Fti
  • #27,050
  • Sep 2, 2011 12:16pm Sep 2, 2011 12:16pm
Quoting jacson101
Hi GE, thanks.
Hope your trading is OK as well.
Diddo, fti is missed.
Rgds

This place is sad with out fti!
Wishing all good rest on the long weekend!
  • #27,051
  • Sep 3, 2011 6:14am Sep 3, 2011 6:14am
I hope fti is doing well, I haven't heard from him.

Also I have been out for a bit, anyone have good insight like ge about what's in play on the ground?

After taking a break on reading the thread, I found this gem. Aux pretty much sums up the basics of dance. The rest is practice and experience, which covers up some grey zones on whether certain procedures can be put into effect or not. After screwing up a few dances, the MO makes more sense as to why certain things should or shouldn't be done.


Quoting auxesis
Fana,

There's is much power in the skew. but practice it on demo, before you jump out with your money. You need first to learn to ride in the direction of the trend.

Don't ride with high skew for very long, your goal is to add as it starts it's break run in your favor, and then skew back out, with the goal of carving out the center of the move with the most positions. Your profit from that, is either banked or held in reserve for the remainder. The toughest part of this is the timing of adding in profit, but you can't over stay with high...
  • #27,052
  • Sep 3, 2011 2:32pm Sep 3, 2011 2:32pm
An admirer says hello to the master(artist) and the class. A friend says hello and thank you for the knowledge, art and wisdom.

Wishing health and joy to the Generals and Commanders, good health to the armies.

Take care
  • #27,053
  • Sep 4, 2011 3:34am Sep 4, 2011 3:34am
As an economics student I really understand your point. Recently I was making some "lab experiments" on FX Market. What i Found was that the key to any technical/fundamental indicator is the mixture of quantitative/qualitative methods behind each leading/lagging and consistent indicator. After i realize the market is a result of a lot of aggregate preferences then i found something interesting.

As an economist there is the golden rule that says when Suppy=Demand then Price is in Equilibrium. So I made the same analogy on the fx market. And then extract all info from that particular point. This point was always on TOPS/BOTTOMS. Then i realize that if I mixed it with some technical indicators i will get the whole market picture. I already tested this macroeconomic algorithm on EURUSD, AUDUSD, XAUUSD, USDCHF and EURAUD.

So your idea is a correct approach to fx market behavior.

Check the graph and then compare with the price behavior of the XAUUSD from 2004-2011

Attached Image


Now you can see the trend without noise and with some additional technical indicators you know whats going on on the market. I used the bear/bull power at this points and was really profitable. We must never forget use the actual preferences of the people when using a technical pure statistical indicator.
  • #27,054
  • Sep 4, 2011 4:00am Sep 4, 2011 4:00am
Inserted Video
  • #27,055
  • Sep 4, 2011 4:25am Sep 4, 2011 4:25am
I think the man lecturing focuses too much on correlation of returns. That is only a tiny fraction of the analysis that must be done to compare the effectiveness and risks within a portfolio.

Also the responsibility of these hedge funds is not to be more creative (my opinion). It's "goal" to make steady money for their investors. I say "goal" because they don't necessarily have to be earning money all the time. The managers get 20% of initial investment and have the right to lock in their investors from leaving the fund. Being creative is nice though.



Quoting Fana
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69t12xlSi3A
  • #27,056
  • Edited 5:08am Sep 4, 2011 4:43am | Edited 5:08am
Quoting fullperson
I think the man lecturing focuses too much on correlation of returns. That is only a tiny fraction of the analysis that must be done to compare the effectiveness and risks within a portfolio.

Also the responsibility of these hedge funds is not to be more creative (my opinion). It's "goal" to make steady money for their investors. I say "goal" because they don't necessarily have to be earning money all the time. The managers get 20% of initial investment and have the right to lock in their investors from leaving the fund. Being creative is...

http://www.forbes.com/profile/ray-dalio
I just observe attitude of very rich people, imo it is interesting... There is one (at least), good idea in that video : "Be independent".
- And he just declared, that this is only a start of his career... Rgds
  • #27,057
  • Sep 4, 2011 6:25am Sep 4, 2011 6:25am
Definitely be independent, which is why he sounds crazy fishy to me, I wonder what kind of audience he is talking to?

If you look on the list, founder of facebook has more power than the ceo of goldman sachs...I wonder how these people come up with these stupid rankings.




Quoting Fana

http://www.forbes.com/profile/ray-dalio
I just observe attitude of very rich people, imo it is interesting... There is one (at least), good idea in that video : "Be independent".
- And he just declared, that this is only a start of his career... Rgds
  • #27,058
  • Edited 7:07am Sep 4, 2011 6:38am | Edited 7:07am
Quoting fullperson
Definitely be independent, which is why he sounds crazy fishy to me, I wonder what kind of audience he is talking to?

If you look on the list, founder of facebook has more power than the ceo of goldman sachs...I wonder how these people come up with these stupid rankings.
I dont care about that... I am interested only in what i can take for myself from it and potentialy turn it to improving my success. It can be milionaire or scientist or whoever...
- there are thousands of gurus or recommenders and system-advices sellers... But What are these people and why they give advice? Why they sell their books. Most probably they are unable to earn in the markets... Or they need the supporting income, because when they would do only trading, they already had done in their throusers.... So what should be the right source of informations how to trade? Does it exist? I think NO. I can take only some parts from "gurus", but they dont have it usefull for themselves. So maybe it is a puzzle taken pieces from many gurus and thus i have something usefull.... Or i can watch the proved bilionaires. They dont tell what to trade and buy or sell. They are able to show me how they behave and what are their attitudes and priorities. For me this all is signal, that it is in each person to do the right think for each. No help, thats all only each of us... *I must decide, i must implement discipline, i must understand logical coherences.... My money my decisions... I strongly REFUSE advices from anybody. But i very appreciate to see how others trade for example... Does it make some sense?:-)
  • #27,059
  • Sep 4, 2011 10:05am Sep 4, 2011 10:05am
Quoting Fana
I dont care about that... I am interested only in what i can take for myself from it and potentialy turn it to improving my success. It can be milionaire or scientist or whoever...
- there are thousands of gurus or recommenders and system-advices sellers... But What are these people and why they give advice? Why they sell their books. Most probably they are unable to earn in the markets... Or they need the supporting income, because when they would do only trading, they already had done in their throusers.... So what should be the right source...
It definitely does Fana...i bet my watch and warrant on it....it definitely does make sense
  • #27,060
  • Sep 4, 2011 12:52pm Sep 4, 2011 12:52pm
Quoting Fana
I dont care about that... I am interested only in what i can take for myself from it and potentialy turn it to improving my success. It can be milionaire or scientist or whoever...
- there are thousands of gurus or recommenders and system-advices sellers... But What are these people and why they give advice? Why they sell their books. Most probably they are unable to earn in the markets... Or they need the supporting income, because when they would do only trading, they already had done in their throusers.... So what should be the right source of...
yeah actually the only true source of quality info is in yourself. You can read a lot of outlooks in different pages all of them saying exactly the same. There are a lot of financial scammers pretending they know something about the market and then they make some products to sell them to the noobs is pretty sad. There is a rule on the Market Wizards book, they said stop listening to everyone about outlooks and taking advice from other people. You should know enough about market behavior at this time if you really pay attention to it.

As an economics student, my colleagues always talk about bloomberg/market watch news and stuff but they never got the whole market picture. And I was tired of listening lots of bs news so I began to develop my own news with my own indicators and my own strategy. I used 101 economics and is just so different you cut off the noise and look the whole picture clearly.
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