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Romancing the Price

  • #821
  • Aug 27, 2011 12:42pm Aug 27, 2011 12:42pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
subbed
just posted on your thread containing a word "added"

just kidding fib..

anyways here are couple of trades from manic friday...

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before anybody asks.. on eu charts there is USDNOK line chart overlay.. beside 200 EMA.. nothing special.. overlay chart indi is available on this thread...


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  • #822
  • Aug 27, 2011 2:06pm Aug 27, 2011 2:06pm
Quoting KennyZ
just posted on your thread containing a word "added"

just kidding fib..

anyways here are couple of trades from manic friday...

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before anybody asks.. on eu charts there is USDNOK line chart overlay.. beside 200 EMA.. nothing special.. overlay chart indi is available on this thread...


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great catch, up and down
  • #823
  • Edited 2:18pm Aug 27, 2011 2:07pm | Edited 2:18pm
KennyZ....can you make a explanation off this trades?
I ask because seems to me you are not waiting for confirmation of turn price.
Maybe you are looking entry on M1 time frame?
thanks..
  • #824
  • Aug 27, 2011 4:25pm Aug 27, 2011 4:25pm
Quoting Orbital
I knew you would love the remix, its fantastic, excellent for aggressive scalping Btw you might enjoy this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckrb4D6W65o#t=1m24s
Btw u got more like this? Seems i figure stuff out on this music! Sorry for the OT!
  • #825
  • Aug 27, 2011 5:24pm Aug 27, 2011 5:24pm
Ken mate,

this thread is going like EU and other threads, and I hate to see it happen.

RTP and PIE should be textbooks, pure and simple, with no noise whatsoever.

They are the two most important threads on trading that ever existed, and should, I believe, be kept pure.

I have already started the Price is Everything Chat Room, where we can all post whatever the hell we like, so there's no need for any noise here.

I'd like to make a very strong suggestion, if I may:

Please put a 10+ Vouch hurdle on this thread, so that at least some of the chatter can be avoided.
Any of your buddies that have less than 11 vouches (and knowing you, your buddies all have 10+, or are due to have them very soon!) will still be able to post here.

We can easily then carry from the chat room, all educational comments and questions (new material, basically) to here.

I'd also like you, on post 1, to explain why this is being done, just so nobody feels alienated.

You can simply quote this request if you like.


If you do this, future finders of RTP will thank your generous soul for making their journey to success that bit easier.

With enormous respect and admiration

If
  • #826
  • Aug 27, 2011 6:23pm Aug 27, 2011 6:23pm
sound suggestion IF.. done.. and many thanks..


Quoting Ifmyante
Ken mate,

this thread is going like EU and other threads, and I hate to see it happen.

RTP and PIE should be textbooks, pure and simple, with no noise whatsoever.

They are the two most important threads on trading that ever existed, and should, I believe, be kept pure.

I have already started the Price is Everything Chat Room, where we can all post whatever the hell we like, so there's no need for any noise here.

I'd like to make a very strong suggestion, if I may:

Please put...
  • #827
  • Edited Aug 28, 2011 3:43am Aug 27, 2011 7:46pm | Edited Aug 28, 2011 3:43am
I do hope it keeps the thread clean, but alienates no genuine learners and contributors.
Remember, friends, that all true contributors will be added to Kenny's buddy list so they can stay involved here. So please pm him to be included, and be sure not to spam the thread, or you may be suspended for a while

Anyway, to answer a pm question on guerilla scalping:
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  • #828
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:53am Aug 28, 2011 4:53am
a big institution has been been building positions on the long side.. now they need to liquidate their positions but price turned against them.. where they exit?

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obvious answer is to wait for the price to hit supply but what about if price continues dropping.. would they be waiting for the price hit their stop.. would they exit here.. or start praying.. or....
  • #829
  • Aug 28, 2011 5:29am Aug 28, 2011 5:29am
Quoting KennyZ
a big institution has been been building positions on the long side.. now they need to liquidate their positions but price turned against them.. where they exit?

Not easy to know without data about actual DD, entries and chart TF, and if the need to liquidate is urgent.

However:
Current price looks like it is nearing 38.2% retracement on previous swing high and could reverse from there.

There is also a previous ascending trend line which was broken and price made a new low, however price broke back up and is again approaching the TL from above.

If the need to liquidate is not an absolute urgency, I personally would wait for a retest and bounce from the TL, we also have some support below (around 50% retracement?) which would be the ultimate exit point in my opinion if it is also broken.
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  • #830
  • Edited 10:06am Aug 28, 2011 9:48am | Edited 10:06am
nice to see you here doblece.. thank you for your views.. appreciated...

i may steal some of your excellent designs from your website to use on rpt's google website.. non-commercial ofcourse..

guys and gals.. there are no single absolute answer... consider all factors.. think you are the one who is trading for this BIG institution.. you have started to build long positions.. how would u trade this chart..

lets learn from each other.. if in the process novice traders picks thing or two then this thread would be serving it's purposes..

Quoting doblece
Not easy to know without data about actual DD, entries and chart TF, and if the need to liquidate is urgent.

However:
Current price looks like it is nearing 38.2% retracement on previous swing high and could reverse from there.

There is also a previous ascending trend line which was broken and price made a new low, however price broke back up and is again approaching the TL from above.

If the need to liquidate is not an absolute urgency, I personally would wait for a retest and bounce from the TL, we also have some support below (around 50%...
  • #831
  • Aug 28, 2011 10:51am Aug 28, 2011 10:51am
Quoting KennyZ
a big institution has been been building positions on the long side.. now they need to liquidate their positions but price turned against them.. where they exit?


obvious answer is to wait for the price to hit supply but what about if price continues dropping.. would they be waiting for the price hit their stop.. would they exit here.. or start praying.. or....
Hey Ken.

This is where volume comes in for me. If A has volume that is ultra high, chances are institutions are liquidating. Ultra high volume like that isn't always liquidation, and may be absorption of supply. The following price action will help you find out. The second bar I marked, if it had high volume as well, would be an up thrust and would hint that the institutions sold into the first marked candle and are now squeezing weak shorts. Traditional VSA analysis would say that the up thrust would have to be confirmed by a "no demand" bar (small up bar with low volume) or a down bar. Traditional VSA entry would be on the break of a no demand following the other bars I've marked.

VSA entries tend to be at a less attractive price, but if read correctly you won't see much DD. I tend to take simple PA entries at SD provided they fit into my higher time frame SD dynamic. VSA is like a microscope that I use to analyze institutional intentions, and occasionally I'll use it for entries if I was unable to find a simple PA entry.
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  • #832
  • Aug 28, 2011 10:56am Aug 28, 2011 10:56am
We've been chopping away at the blue daily supply. If that gives we have some room between the fresh H4 supply and weekly supply.

I only have one more trading session for the month, Tuesday during NY, and I'll be carefully watching volume and PA, I'll try to post my thoughts after NY close regarding the volume/PA.
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  • #833
  • Edited 1:09pm Aug 28, 2011 11:18am | Edited 1:09pm
Quoting homersimpson
My thought why zone1&2 are failed is because these zones have been visited multiple times especially zone 1-its risky to be regarded as a demand zone

about zone 3, PA has lots of lower wicks that help consume the demand orders, like a timber being chopped many times then gives way.....

one thing may be worth to draw attention is that Red's zone is around 20, EU sometimes use "sweet number" 00, 20, 50, 80 as barriers

my 2 pips

Homer
Based on SS's probability enhancers, I believe I'm right in saying that he will only take an entry signal on the very first test of an S/D zone, as on any subsequent visits the supply/demand imbalance and therefore the probability of the level holding is becoming weaker...

Really excellent thread btw...

Quoting frankkn
We've been chopping away at the blue daily supply. If that gives we have some room between the fresh H4 supply and weekly supply.

I only have one more trading session for the month, Tuesday during NY, and I'll be carefully watching volume and PA, I'll try to post my thoughts after NY close regarding the volume/PA.
What are you using to generate volume data there Frank? I take it that you're referring to broker tick data... edit: or are you using maybe futures volume?

Quoting KennyZ
just posted on your thread containing a word "added"

just kidding fib..

anyways here are couple of trades from manic friday...

Attachment

before anybody asks.. on eu charts there is USDNOK line chart overlay.. beside 200 EMA.. nothing special.. overlay chart indi is available on this thread...


Attachment
Very nice thread Kenny, great work...
  • #834
  • Edited 3:42pm Aug 28, 2011 11:45am | Edited 3:42pm
Quoting KennyZ
a big institution has been been building positions on the long side.. now they need to liquidate their positions but price turned against them.. where they exit?

Attachment

obvious answer is to wait for the price to hit supply but what about if price continues dropping.. would they be waiting for the price hit their stop.. would they exit here.. or start praying.. or....
I'll have a stab. If I was trading for this institution, this is what I would do:

Assuming they entered at demand then waiting for their stops to hit would put them at greater risk of not getting all of their positions out of the market without taking some heavier losses beyond their stops, due to the size of their positions and the liquidity needed to get out of their positions. If they were not going to attempt to push price up towards supply then they need to start thinking about off-loading their positions now.

However, the risk of doing this would be to force price down much faster as supply for the currency suddenly outweighs demand (in the interbank world they would need to sell their positions to close out their buys), causing other buyers to exit the market which would considerably reduce their liquidity needed to off-load. Off-loading their positions in a down move would cause a faster downward movement which would likely attract other sellers into the market increasing the selling frenzie.

As a result, the likelihood of having some of their positions still in the market at their stop is quite high (assuming stops just below the demand level). Selling now may cause price to crash straight through the demand level which would scupper their only chances of getting out of the market safely - at the demand level where there are waiting buyers (liquidity).

The best approach would be to gradually dump (sell) their buy positions amongst the buyers waiting at the demand level which would then allow for the instituion's selling actions to be hidden. As the buyers take off their load the rise in price may encourage other buyers into the market where more positions could be gradually off-loaded.

I think the key here is seeking the right amount of expected liquidity in order to offload but not to do it too rapidly or too soon before demand so that the market does not crash through it and blow out the potential liquidity pool of buyers needed to dump positions. Dumping positions too early would reduce their chances of getting out of ALL of their positions at break even or small profit.
  • #835
  • Aug 28, 2011 12:55pm Aug 28, 2011 12:55pm
great inputs frankkn and Porkpie beside doblece..

frankkn, please ignore the silly questions..
  • #836
  • Aug 28, 2011 2:58pm Aug 28, 2011 2:58pm
Quoting FibbinArchie


What are you using to generate volume data there Frank? I take it that you're referring to broker tick data... edit: or are you using maybe futures volume?
Which ever he's using, it is valid. Futures or tick..........VSA doesn't care.


PS great idea If, keep the thread clear of rediculas questions but open to those who want to learn.
  • #837
  • Edited 5:31pm Aug 28, 2011 5:20pm | Edited 5:31pm
Yup tick volume is valid, but don't take our word for it. I know I didn't think it was valid for the longest time.

For H1 and down I like FXCM and IBFX tick volume feeds, I also like daily futures volume on /es, /6e, /dx

The primary thing I look for is volume that is "ultra high". This only tells you one thing: the professional side of the market is active. If you see this volume on a down bar into demand, and that bar has a wide spread and it closes off of its lows (decent bottom wick), then you may have some evidence that there is buying.

Ultra high volume on this kind of down bar doesn't always mean that there's buying, there is more to volume analysis, but for the sake of keeping it simple I'll leave it at that for now.
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  • #838
  • Aug 28, 2011 5:30pm Aug 28, 2011 5:30pm
Quoting frankkn
Yup tick volume is valid, but don't take our word for it. I know I didn't think it was valid for the longest time.

For H1 and down I like FXCM and IBFX tick volume feeds, I also like daily futures volume on /es, /6e, /dx
I do use tick myself, I know you're well into vsa, so was just interested in getting your take on it.

Thanks for the comprehensive response..
  • #839
  • Aug 28, 2011 5:55pm Aug 28, 2011 5:55pm
More simple volume analysis, this is what I look for into demand, see the M15 climactic volume on the left? Next look at the M5 on the right and take your pick of simple PA entries.

These aren't my only considerations, just showing how I watch for professional activity at levels that I deem appropriate after considering higher time frame price structure.

As a side note, I will typically watch for climactic volume (into qaulity SD) on M15/M30/H1, and look for M5 entries for the most part.
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  • #840
  • Aug 28, 2011 6:12pm Aug 28, 2011 6:12pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
I think it works well as a complimentary confirmation, do you use it sub m15?
It sure does, and I might take M5 tests and ND/NS entries from the M5 but usually I'll scale in. On the last chart I posted I'd have scaled in on the rejection/pin candles as well as the engulfings. Sometimes price moves too quickly and forms a flag, and this is where I really like tests and ND/NS.

For those who are curious, a traditional test is a small bar closing on its highs with two other important qualities: volume less than previous two bars, and it breaks the low of the previous two bars. I will enter on the break of the high if going long.

ND/NS means no demand/no supply. A no supply is a small down bar with volume less than the previous two, I personally will place my order at the break of the high.

For both ND/NS and tests, they are only valid if they fit into the "background" meaning they are only worth taking if they come after buying in demand for example.

But to answer your question, I normally just use a blank M5 chart with no volume for my entry chart, and will pull out volume if I need to enter on a flag or similar structure.

Quote
btw I've not read the whole of this thread, so if I'm covering old ground or if you feel that these questions are not relevant then please just say...

This is fresh ground for the thread, and I'm happy that we're talking some volume. HG and Intel have a lot more to share about volume than me. I'm very curious to see how other traders here feel about volume.
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