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The Really Useless Thread

  • #4,301
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:34pm Aug 28, 2011 4:34pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
Well the two most bastardly variables about options are vega and theta. Volatility and time decay will kill you, even when your right. You could pick the direction right, but if the damn thing goes there slow and steady, you could still actualy lose on the trade.
exactly, which is Y S/D and EWT combined I think helps me with the theta....Im selling when muppets are buying...vice versa....plus, I believe i can capture the fat of the difference (delta)
  • #4,302
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:35pm Aug 28, 2011 4:35pm
Quoting cloggie
IF that's 1k you can afford to lose to learn something, go for it. That's the name of the game, how much are you willing to risk to be proven right?
Like I said, Im gonna pull 50% of each successful trade.....best case that puts me around a mil....worse case 340K.....Ill be debt free either way.....worse case I lose 1K....or approx 1.5 days of EU trading
  • #4,303
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:37pm Aug 28, 2011 4:37pm
Quoting needpips
exactly, which is Y S/D and EWT combined I think helps me with the theta....Im selling when muppets are buying...vice versa....plus, I believe i can capture the fat of the difference (delta)

I am more of a "I want it now" kind of guy, I know exactly what my exposure is and what my possible return is each and every day, just a matter of starting afresh each and every day, the time horizon in Spot is so much more manageable. I start the book at the morning and cover all at the close, tomorrow is a fresh start and today has no bearing at all on it. Just take it one day at a time.
  • #4,304
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:37pm Aug 28, 2011 4:37pm
He-llo assholes.. uh.. traders.. LOL
  • #4,305
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:37pm Aug 28, 2011 4:37pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
PSS, Glad you had a good time brother, damn shame I wasnt right there with ya..
Brother...you have NO idea how many times you've crossed my mind since being here...kinda strange having never met! We'd RIP it up! Not doing too bad a job on me own!

Hope you're weekend was good, mate!

Back in an hour...ish.
  • #4,306
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:38pm Aug 28, 2011 4:38pm
Quoting needpips
...or approx 1.5 days of EU trading

As long as you can still trade the spot, you will be quits even by the weekend, well worth the exercise.
  • #4,307
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:38pm Aug 28, 2011 4:38pm
Quoting needpips
exactly, which is Y S/D and EWT combined I think helps me with the theta....Im selling when muppets are buying...vice versa....plus, I believe i can capture the fat of the difference (delta)
I can dig it, all my largest winners have been those time of options trades. My first big one was in the silver, put $500 up, got $15,000 back. I used a different appproach. I would use options that where very close to expiration, that where cheap. These had lost most of the theta, but had a very high gamma(rate of change of the delta). Thems the ones I like.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #4,308
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:39pm Aug 28, 2011 4:39pm
Back to spot, eu is a bastard, thin as fuck and nothing to go on here at 45 just yet.

Don't really know WTF I am doing here right now.

Gonna watch MOTD, we got feckin hammered today, what a disgrace. Worst defeat since 1896, yup took a 100 years.
  • #4,309
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:41pm Aug 28, 2011 4:41pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
I can dig it, all my largest winners have been those time of options trades. My first big one was in the silver, put $500 up, got $15,000 back. I used a different appproach. I would use options that where very close to expiration, that where cheap. These had lost most of the theta, but had a very high gamma(rate of change of the delta). Thems the one I like.
exactly.....thats the other one I wannna exploit, a buddy o mine shreds those at expy every month
  • #4,310
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:43pm Aug 28, 2011 4:43pm
Gonna call it a night here, scalp play is selling of the 45 for now, do not expect Asia to get through it on such low volumes, to the top 4524 is one I have been watching for 2 weeks now.

There is no reversal pattern on any of the lower TF's just yet, it is a crapshoot really.
  • #4,311
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:43pm Aug 28, 2011 4:43pm
Quoting needpips
exactly.....thats the other one I wannna exploit, a buddy o mine shreds those at expy every month
indeed the returns are just out of this world, think is you have to keep some powder dry, because if it blows up in your face, it goes to zero..another thing is, if you get a positon thats in the money, you can always scalp the shit out of the underlying...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #4,312
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:43pm Aug 28, 2011 4:43pm
Quoting cloggie
Gonna call it a night here, scalp play is selling of the 45 for now, do not expect Asia to get through it on such low volumes, to the top 4524 is one I have been watching for 2 weeks now.
yep.....chillin here too... thx for the thoughts
  • #4,313
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:45pm Aug 28, 2011 4:45pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
indeed the returns are just out of this world, think is you have to keep some powder dry, because if it blows up in your face, it goes to zero..another thing is, if you get a positon thats in the money, you can always scalp the shit out of the underlying...
Im ready.... I will keep a log and inform as it evolves.....thx for ur help
  • #4,314
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:46pm Aug 28, 2011 4:46pm
Fergie back too on MOTD.... Sweet..

Quoting cloggie
Back to spot, eu is a bastard, thin as fuck and nothing to go on here at 45 just yet.

Don't really know WTF I am doing here right now.

Gonna watch MOTD, we got feckin hammered today, what a disgrace. Worst defeat since 1896, yup took a 100 years.
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #4,315
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:48pm Aug 28, 2011 4:48pm
Very interesting... Not sure i understand but after reading, i definitely need to brush up on options/contracts

Quoting needpips
ok...here tis

Basic tenet is to buy contract close to $1....also, they may be more due to timing....the reality is the in the money price makes no diff...Im using a target of around a dollar to keep the math simple. ***Assume a dollar for all calculations

Which month to buy will be determined on which wave... even number waves take longer and Ill prob buy later contracts....remember...these distances are best case....Ill probably just take the fat part of each move....u can do the math

I have studied EWT for over a year, but with now having...
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #4,316
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:50pm Aug 28, 2011 4:50pm
hey everyone... man september is gonna be a fun month on the ole EU...

just for shits and giggles

1. Sept 20-21st: FOMC... will the feds hands be tied still due the ever looming fear of Deflation to put yet MORE negative rates on T-bills and launch more QE like the chairman is unquestionably itching to do?

2. Sept 23rd: Will germany support the Greek bailout and agaisnt Pres Wulff's desires have Merkel's parliament pass the bill to further fund the EFSF Or will merkels own party dissent and force her into resignation and thereby completely crush any hope of the EU surviving at all?

3. Sept 30th: US deadline to pass budget. OMG we are here already!! Will our inept congress actually get anything done on time or will they perform as poorly as they always have and get some ridiculous non effective budget passed in the last minute while the market is doing cartwheels? My vote is obvious.... fuckers

4: Overall: The EU is fucked one way or another and loads and loads more CDS's are going to be purchased agaisnt ALL the members of the euro union. Germans dont want to fund the entire eurozone without absolute control over policy and they may get it. Or not, in which case they are either gonna be forced to make some tough decisions affecting the lives of millions... and on the other side of the pond the fed is terrified of high unemployment and really wants to ease more, but they are stuck and need a stronger Treasury yeild, and thereby a stronger USD to subsequently borrow against and destroy. Will they get it? In short, yes. IMHO sept is going to be one of vast fear and uncertainty and a risk off theme will be front and center. USD will strengthen because it has to with the massive efforts Switzerland is taking to devalue their currency and the arsenal Japan has at its disposal to monetize their debt enough liquidity and supply will flow into US yields to give the fed what it wants so badly....


Anyhow... umm... good luck???
  • #4,317
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:51pm Aug 28, 2011 4:51pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
Well the two most bastardly variables about options are vega and theta. Volatility and time decay will kill you, even when your right. You could pick the direction right, but if the damn thing goes there slow and steady, you could still actualy lose on the trade.
fuckin options....
  • #4,318
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:51pm Aug 28, 2011 4:51pm
Quoting needpips
Im ready.... I will keep a log and inform as it evolves.....thx for ur help
no problem brother, wish you luck, PTL...

one more thing I will share with you..when that silver trade hit, I went through something I had not counted on, when I put the postion on, the deltas where tiny, but when the bastard got to my strike, I was in an a huge position compare to where I started, I actully gave up 10K on that trade just getting out of it, I just wasnt experieced trading that size, I kinda shit my pants....hope you encounter the same problem...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #4,319
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:52pm Aug 28, 2011 4:52pm
Quoting Wulfgar
fuckin options....
those bastards have taken years off my life..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #4,320
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:54pm Aug 28, 2011 4:54pm
Quoting cloggie
Back to spot, eu is a bastard, thin as fuck and nothing to go on here at 45 just yet.

Don't really know WTF I am doing here right now.

Gonna watch MOTD, we got feckin hammered today, what a disgrace. Worst defeat since 1896, yup took a 100 years.
i saw that... damn.... brutal
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