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  • #15,841
  • Aug 18, 2011 1:51pm Aug 18, 2011 1:51pm
Quoting strat
But which "chance" will you take, Greek Bouncer?

"Beast", she is a bit of a whimp these days!
Hmm.. I was thinking short IF we got a BEEB..

thank you
  • #15,842
  • Aug 18, 2011 6:22pm Aug 18, 2011 6:22pm
Quoting Rubens PP
Hmm.. I was thinking short IF we got a BEEB..

thank you
Well don't trade off those Hanging Man candles - they NEED confirmation
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,843
  • Aug 19, 2011 5:10pm Aug 19, 2011 5:10pm
Hanging Man CONFIRMATION on H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 42 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,844
  • Edited 6:14am Aug 20, 2011 6:02am | Edited 6:14am
Strat,
Would you not consider Cable to be a CT trade? The daily is going up (MAs stacked in the correct order) as is the weekly? Would it not be better to wait for a LH for confirmation or would you just be taking this as an ATM trade.

I'm still trying to prevent myself from picking tops and bottoms and the trouble is with reversal candles they hone one into doing just that. I guess the true secret (as I was doing well with before) is to take PA reversal candles with trend. The hard part (and what makes trend trading subjective) is picking and deciding on that trend direction and having the patience to WAIT for a better entry price. The equity short has given little chance of that really of late. I would expect there to be a large bear market rally in the coming week esp if Bernanke announces more liquidity at Jackson Hole next week?! But what do I know - I will try my best just to follow the immediate daily trend. Dow chart attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Dow_Weekly.png Size: 90 KB
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #15,845
  • Aug 20, 2011 6:25am Aug 20, 2011 6:25am
And here I have posted the 2008 chart of the Dow weekly top - note how the patterns and situation are very similar.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Dow_Short_2008.png Size: 93 KB
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #15,846
  • Aug 20, 2011 6:40am Aug 20, 2011 6:40am
Some Fib projections that I know some of the major players use to set targets. These could take the S&P back to the 600 level and Dow back to 6000.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Dow_short_3.png Size: 91 KB
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  • #15,847
  • Aug 20, 2011 10:06am Aug 20, 2011 10:06am
Would you not consider Cable to be a CT trade?

No, look at the Boss - she is trapped in a sideways triangle.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,848
  • Aug 21, 2011 8:59am Aug 21, 2011 8:59am
Quoting strat
Would you not consider Cable to be a CT trade?

No, look at the Boss - she is trapped in a sideways triangle.

Something tells me that Strat's gbpusd short entry was more of a cycle thing..

gb
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd boss.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #15,849
  • Aug 21, 2011 10:17am Aug 21, 2011 10:17am
Quoting strat
Would you not consider Cable to be a CT trade?

No, look at the Boss - she is trapped in a sideways triangle.
OR he Likes the Quaterly Chart..??


USD Spot.png
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD Spot.png Size: 11 KB
  • #15,850
  • Aug 21, 2011 10:21am Aug 21, 2011 10:21am
Quoting baz
OR he Likes the Quaterly Chart..??


USD Spot.png

Sorry ..but without the FIBO retrace ..


USD Spot.png
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD Spot.png Size: 10 KB
  • #15,851
  • Aug 21, 2011 6:31pm Aug 21, 2011 6:31pm
Cycles my ass!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd boss.gif Size: 36 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,852
  • Aug 22, 2011 4:28am Aug 22, 2011 4:28am
Here's how I interpret the boss chart.

The uptrend is gone when the boss broke through the demand TL.
The price found support at 1.6 and buyers managed to take the price back to 1.65 but couldnt close above it.

Candle 1 & 2 shows the sellers in control. Candle 3 shows buyers trying again to pushg price up but in the end they were not strong enough.

The long wick and the close below 1.65 and below TL tells me that the sellers are back. OR, there is a greater chance that the sellers will be back.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_boss_22.08.png Size: 27 KB
  • #15,853
  • Aug 26, 2011 4:03pm Aug 26, 2011 4:03pm
Quoting strat
Cycles my ass!

Hatts off to Strat for "pennant" trading. (WOW trading with no TL is beyond any beginners reach and accurately defines true trading experience).

I shorted gbpjpy, as discussed previously, below the aug 21st hammer to be exact.
Todays candle on gbpxxx pairs is not comforting, however since no obvious S but an old TL (gbpjpy wise) is the hardle, short position will be held as are.

Comments always welcome
gb
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: beast short.JPG Size: 139 KB
  • #15,854
  • Aug 26, 2011 9:29pm Aug 26, 2011 9:29pm
Quoting hcristea
Here's how I interpret the boss chart.

The uptrend is gone when the boss broke through the demand TL.
The price found support at 1.6 and buyers managed to take the price back to 1.65 but couldnt close above it.

Candle 1 & 2 shows the sellers in control. Candle 3 shows buyers trying again to pushg price up but in the end they were not strong enough.

The long wick and the close below 1.65 and below TL tells me that the sellers are back. OR, there is a greater chance that the sellers will be back.
Buyer came back!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #15,855
  • Aug 26, 2011 9:36pm Aug 26, 2011 9:36pm
Quoting Alexandra
Well done to close - In the case of USDCHF, Dr. Joe may be holding his words at this point. What does that say to USD across the board? Is it time to "bury it" in the same fashion as the Euro a few months back on the cover of Newsweek? Those longs are still going!

See simpleman - you were right! I'm still holding those long USDCHF until the market tells me otherwise. Regarding the Cable debate, I like another run at the heavy monthly resistance.

So who used the USDCHF reversal to sell Gold? Anyone?
  • #15,856
  • Aug 27, 2011 4:10pm Aug 27, 2011 4:10pm
Quoting glasso
Buyer came back!
Correctomundo! "A" buyer came back but there is no confirmed swing low yet
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,857
  • Aug 27, 2011 4:13pm Aug 27, 2011 4:13pm
Quoting Rubens PP
Hatts off to Strat for "pennant" trading. (WOW trading with no TL is beyond any beginners reach and accurately defines true trading experience).

I shorted gbpjpy, as discussed previously, below the aug 21st hammer to be exact.
Todays candle on gbpxxx pairs is not comforting, however since no obvious S but an old TL (gbpjpy wise) is the hardle, short position will be held as are.

Comments always welcome
gb
trading with no TL is beyond any beginners reach and accurately defines true trading experience

Its only UNDERSTANDING PASR and SEEING BEYOND THE CANDLES, Greek Bouncer, nothing more and nothing more needed.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,858
  • Aug 27, 2011 4:15pm Aug 27, 2011 4:15pm
Quoting Alexandra
See simpleman - you were right! I'm still holding those long USDCHF until the market tells me otherwise. Regarding the Cable debate, I like another run at the heavy monthly resistance.

So who used the USDCHF reversal to sell Gold? Anyone?
sell Gold?

Only Fools and Horses!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,859
  • Aug 27, 2011 5:15pm Aug 27, 2011 5:15pm
Quoting Alexandra
See simpleman - you were right! I'm still holding those long USDCHF until the market tells me otherwise. Regarding the Cable debate, I like another run at the heavy monthly resistance.

So who used the USDCHF reversal to sell Gold? Anyone?
I will be gold seller this week...I have given up on EU/GU they are choppy,
  • #15,860
  • Aug 27, 2011 7:35pm Aug 27, 2011 7:35pm
I would not be a gold seller. The up trend is still intact! The TL break last week will result in a rally to test the break at least -or another test of the $2000 level. Gold rallied hard into the close on Fri. All those traders on margin were cleared out by the moves down last week. The gold miners look as if they are about to explode out of their 9 month consolidation, converging back with the gold price.

I think we will also see a rally in equities to test the 200dma before rolling over and continuing the next leg down in the continued bear market. Many trading books say that these trades back into the trend after a TL break are one of the surest trades in trading. Guess that means the big boys may fade the move ;-)
Trade less and become more profitable!
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