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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #3,181
  • Aug 25, 2011 9:59am Aug 25, 2011 9:59am
Quoting Evak
So perhaps all this talk about seeing short covering in P-formation upon another this last few day & with JD's blog even mentioning it perhaps bearing fruition now. Signaling cautious long & need to react when situation reverse...
I agree! It could take OTF traders several days to cover large positions. Being able to understand & identify the distribution of prices is key imo.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,182
  • Aug 25, 2011 10:03am Aug 25, 2011 10:03am
Quoting Oxford
sure, please see attachment. Original post should also have one.
I saw the the original post, Thats why I made a comment
I was impressed that you did!!!!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,183
  • Aug 25, 2011 10:21am Aug 25, 2011 10:21am


maybe I should go for sleep

Quoting mzvega
I saw the the original post, Thats why I made a comment
I was impressed that you did!!!!
  • #3,184
  • Aug 25, 2011 10:30am Aug 25, 2011 10:30am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
i didn't got anything from this down move, i didn't find an entry to establish a position i got a conflict between my MP analysis and vsa...and i don't like to get on break till it's confirmed. i just got into a long but mostly on vsa bases i used just the double initial range from us sesion view and that minus development needs to be tested. anyway it was a good risk/reward ration and much better probability form my point of view then the any entry in the down move.
checked my long, it starts to look k...
  • #3,185
  • Aug 25, 2011 10:54am Aug 25, 2011 10:54am
Quoting s7c
i didn't got anything from this down move, i didn't find an entry to establish a position i got a conflict between my MP analysis and vsa...and i don't like to get on break till it's confirmed. i just got into a long but mostly on vsa bases i used just the double initial range from us sesion view and that minus development needs to be tested. anyway it was a good risk/reward ration and much better probability form my point of view then the any entry in the down move.
checked my long, it starts to look k...
I would like to share a video with you. I have posted it before. Its about 3 hours long. Its MP103 for advanced traders. Ive posted the other videos as well. If your not up to viewing the whole video (which I would recommend watching it all) at @ 12-13 mins he describes similar PA to today. http://www.tradingclinic.com/oneoff/...l20080606.html
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,186
  • Aug 25, 2011 3:06pm Aug 25, 2011 3:06pm
Quoting mzvega
Great to see you back!!! Congrats on the house! We all need to to step back and "regroup" once in awhile.
Interesting additions.....something for me to think about. Hope to see more posts!

It's great to be back. With new house comes lot's of work so I'll be trying to post as actively as possible!

As I mentioned last night. I noticed prices have been "bottle-necking" into a point that can be clearly observed on the 8-week chart I posted giving me the impression - in my opinion - that we're completing a longer-term auction here. Given how uncertain the markets have been lately, it's understandable that we'd experience both responsive buyers and sellers. Back when the Euro was raging against the dollar most buying activity was initiating in nature - buying above value left and right. From my perspective, it's just a matter of gauging the strength of the responsive buyers and sellers participating as we approach the end of this distribution.

As I'm sure many of you saw, we posted a new weekly low today. It's nothing serious but I did anticipate some sort of sell off as this week's range was only about 50% of the average range for the last 8 weeks and 1.45 was a hefty roadblock. I'm thinking if prices close below 8/24 value we may see more selling. The reason I'm thinkin' this is because as prices probed below value today, responsive buyers failed [so far] to accomplish anything meaningful. However, if prices probe below last WEEK'S value, this would be the area where buyers would respond - given the 20-pip buying tail that formed today.

Overall, I'm still bearish - long term. With 4 months of consecutively lower highs and responsive selling mounting I think it's a matter of time before we see long liquidation - initiative selling.

  • #3,187
  • Aug 25, 2011 3:45pm Aug 25, 2011 3:45pm
Quoting toddanderson
Neorio,
This is interesting, can you post your excel sheet

Thank you
I'm actually still working on that calculator as it's not complete yet. I'm struggling with some of the math to allow variable "legs" of entries and not use a hard set 5.

Kind Regards,
Neo
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #3,188
  • Edited 4:48pm Aug 25, 2011 4:45pm | Edited 4:48pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting mzvega
I would like to share a video with you. I have posted it before. Its about 3 hours long. Its MP103 for advanced traders. Ive posted the other videos as well. If your not up to viewing the whole video (which I would recommend watching it all) at @ 12-13 mins he describes similar PA to today. http://www.tradingclinic.com/oneoff/...l20080606.html
thank's for the video, i saved them all, but i didn't watch any yet. i watched the sequence you said, very educative and true good example regarding today action, first i thought you understood i bought after price breaked val and just after i saw your point.
anyway i closed my entry because it didn't seems it want's to take the 1.4380 which is previous support provided by the trigger number made in 23/08 on 30 min chart which becamed resistance and with tomorrow meeting i don't wanna to take any chances.
anyway my entry was after we saw that stopping vol bar on 30 min made into support area ~1.4350 from 2h chart. to all this i added the MP signs, so all this summed made me enter long...it wasn't the safest entry but as i said a good risk/reward trade on decent probability
i'm sorry, i tried to attach the chart's in order to provide a better view, seems i get some errors...
  • #3,189
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:07pm Aug 25, 2011 6:07pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
haw many times did you read the markets in profile book by JD? it wasn't a good idea to start with his second book? it seems to me it would be necessary a deeper look into some things, i have a lack of understanding some things...or maybe i just should take some lethicin
  • #3,190
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:16pm Aug 25, 2011 6:16pm
Just caught up on the thread. Great postings and charts by everybody. Evac, great commentary and professional manner you have of laying out your thought process.

I've recently watched the Field Of Vision DVDs, I'm working my way through the Market Profile book (by CBOT) and have been watching and reading a ton of other MP/AMT/TPO materials while crunching MP and TPO charts for a few months now.

My charts are a work in progress (I seem to adjust them every few days), but I currently watch the Daily TPO chart set to start the new day with the Tokyo open (with Better Volume and a weekly MP VAL) http://screencast.com/t/0pXSun0NiWUg as well as the Session TPO chart set to use the Sydney open as the Tokyo open http://screencast.com/t/E3awr93K

Evac, you place a lot of importance on the IB and the IB extension (1x/2x/3x). I realize you do this mainly with the Session TPOs. With the Daily TPO I'm having a hard time knowing how to handle the IB's range since the Tokyo session is normally so small in comparison to the London/NY. The first 2 hours of Tokyo hardly compare to the day's range. If we used the Sydney open as the start of day for the Daily TPO (as you do for the Tokyo Session TPO) it would be even smaller. Here's a snippet of the Market Profile book on the subject of the IB: http://screencast.com/t/KULAPdsMrtBn

I suppose what I'd like to hear is that the IB is mainly used as a barometer on the Session TPO charts. I like how you use the IB of each session to help read the potential day type we're facing. Some people that I know actually trade based on the session IB extension (1x). When price extends by 1x or more of the IB's range, a CTT (counter trend trade) is taken if a spike candle (hammer/shooting star) is present. This is responsive trading and my concern is when and if the market gives an initiative (breakout) trade instead and extends by 2x, 3x, or more the IB.

Kind Regards,
Neo
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #3,191
  • Aug 25, 2011 6:49pm Aug 25, 2011 6:49pm
My observation now is price still continue to test previous session high and low to find buyer and seller, no trend.

Yesterday when price reached 3x IB to test monday and tuesday low I anticipate for buying tail in 5 min chart.

Looks like responsive buying still not being shut off at this moment, now US session high become my reference point of profit target. Will hold it til UK open for further price action info.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: buy tail reversal ref.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: buy tail with vol.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #3,192
  • Aug 25, 2011 8:42pm Aug 25, 2011 8:42pm
Quoting NeoRio
...Evac, you place a lot of importance on the IB and the IB extension (1x/2x/3x)...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post4635103
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #3,193
  • Aug 25, 2011 9:15pm Aug 25, 2011 9:15pm
Quoting mima
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post4635103
Thanks, that was a great post...I actually read that post twice today already. My question was to the Daily TPO IB. If I understand correctly, Evak uses the Session TPO (Sydney/Tokyo, London and NY) to read what day-type we might be heading into. The Daily TPO IB (based on the first 2 hours of Tokyo) is not really usable the same way, is it?

Since the TPO count was created with Futures in mind...and in Futures, the first hour or 2 of the day do "normally" set the day's range, the principles need to be somewhat molded or modified for a 24-hour market like Spot Forex. Volume is another thing that is tricky, as with Spot Forex we're not seeing true volume.

NeoRio
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #3,194
  • Aug 25, 2011 10:05pm Aug 25, 2011 10:05pm
Quoting NeoRio
Thanks, that was a great post...I actually read that post twice today already. My question was to the Daily TPO IB. If I understand correctly, Evak uses the Session TPO (Sydney/Tokyo, London and NY) to read what day-type we might be heading into. The Daily TPO IB (based on the first 2 hours of Tokyo) is not really usable the same way, is it?

Since the TPO count was created with Futures in mind...and in Futures, the first hour or 2 of the day do "normally" set the day's range, the principles need to be somewhat molded or modified for a 24-hour...
Again my opinion,
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...11#post4573411

My comments on IB
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post4608349

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post4586232
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,195
  • Aug 25, 2011 10:21pm Aug 25, 2011 10:21pm
Quoting s7c
haw many times did you read the markets in profile book by JD? it wasn't a good idea to start with his second book? it seems to me it would be necessary a deeper look into some things, i have a lack of understanding some things...or maybe i just should take some lethicin
Your entry would have been good, had you held through the asia inventory shift. Ive read both books numerous times. Actually, they are permanent reference books that sit on my desk at all times. I really did find the first one easier to understand. It explains the trade faciltation process from the inside out. The other begins to describe the process outside in. For my thought process I need to understand the smaller parts before I can understand the whole. The second books describes the whole before process.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,196
  • Aug 25, 2011 10:36pm Aug 25, 2011 10:36pm
Quoting mzvega
Again my opinion,
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...11#post4573411

My comments on IB
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post4608349

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post4586232
Thank you, MZVega, great responses and comments.

Much Appreciated,
Neo
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #3,197
  • Aug 26, 2011 12:38am Aug 26, 2011 12:38am
Quoting alexm
My observation now is price still continue to test previous session high and low to find buyer and seller, no trend.

Yesterday when price reached 3x IB to test monday and tuesday low I anticipate for buying tail in 5 min chart.

Looks like responsive buying still not being shut off at this moment, now US session high become my reference point of profit target. Will hold it til UK open for further price action info.
Nice catch.
Interestingly, I have my sights set on that spike base as previously mentioned, besides the daily IB as price approaching that rn of 4350. The bounce was with huge vol. Now market have traded back into yesterday daily value range. By UK open we could be into rotation back to control perhaps...

http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/4...2aug261337.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
  • #3,198
  • Edited 1:39am Aug 26, 2011 1:17am | Edited 1:39am
Quoting NeoRio
Just caught up on the thread. Great postings and charts by everybody. Evac, great commentary and professional manner you have of laying out your thought process.

I've recently watched the Field Of Vision DVDs, I'm working my way through the Market Profile book (by CBOT) and have been watching and reading a ton of other MP/AMT/TPO materials while crunching MP and TPO charts for a few months now.

My charts are a work in progress (I seem to adjust them every few days), but I currently watch the Daily TPO chart set to start the new day with the...
I prefer to have my open on UK now with just 1hr of IB information as standard as i find the UK opening & volume is more representative. Of coz given the 24 hour market, the logic is to use a IB of e.g. 4hours IB if set to TK open. Mzvega use that too I too have a template set to that but i will try to stick to my UK open for now & remain consistent. I guess the trick of an IB is like pereto principle of 80/20, so one can approach as such if u wana adjust your IB on wkly or monthly TF...

An interesting approach to the use of IB is the so call IB rotational strategy where one look to trade extreme in view or price reversal back into control. This of coz apply to certain day types. But the primary mechanical handle is to ascertain potential reversal point at 1.5x, 2x or even 3x IB; The ability to extend further or not will also depend on IB range. e.g. if IB is wide the odd of of having RE of more the 1.5x could be slim & not forgetting the avg trading range of that pair.

Here is a chart on UK open showing some important aspect of range extension (RE) & IB play. Note the failure to RE is an important aspect too & most of the day types are of Neutral or variation of.
http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/7...5aug261406.gif

I have included a template customize for with color scheme easy on the eye . Also the modified indi that includes 1.5x,2x & 3x IB bars. Credit goes to mzvega for this mod. tks. Of coz not forgetting bandung...Note that u still need the associative files to use it

Template is set on IBFX with GMT0. If your Broker GMT let say GMT+2 then adjust the variable "DayStartHour" & "Session hour & color" section time accordingly. Simply add to the numbers..e.g 7+2 =9
Attached File(s)
File Type: rar dmp-mod+tpl.rar   24 KB | 868 downloads


PS: round number indicator that i use that is shown in my chart. The template should load it. If not copy the template again. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=4669829
  • #3,199
  • Aug 26, 2011 1:32am Aug 26, 2011 1:32am
Quoting mzvega
Your entry would have been good, had you held through the asia inventory shift. Ive read both books numerous times. Actually, they are permanent reference books that sit on my desk at all times. I really did find the first one easier to understand. It explains the trade faciltation process from the inside out. The other begins to describe the process outside in. For my thought process I need to understand the smaller parts before I can understand the whole. The second books describes the whole before process.
I actually prefer the 2nd one....& it have coffee stains with it now
  • #3,200
  • Aug 26, 2011 1:53am Aug 26, 2011 1:53am
For those who want to pursue using MP as a strategy, here is something to get you all started..I have compile all the resource that i find personally useful & most of it was previously contributed by Mzvega & TGWHBB (tks). So all i know is in there & all that i don't. Yes they are in there too.

So if u want me to add these compilation, just let me know.

Just a request u guys&gals here. If anyone where to ask about MP stuff that u think that person needs to have a head-start b4 asking complicated questions that we may not be able to answer..Just point him/her to this post...

& here goes:

AMT resources

Alex Benjamin VIDEOS:
http://www.tradingclinic.com/mp201/m...min_021705.wmv

MP101 & MP102 free)

http://www.tradingclinic.com/mp201/m...min_021705.wmv
http://www.tradingclinic.com/downloa...edia/MP102.wmv

MP103
Not free but, clicking on the following link will give you access to a free 3 hour presentation.
http://www.tradingclinic.com/oneoff/...l20080606.html

James Dalton Videos:
http://vimeo.com/user4051895/videos (A must)

James Dailton daily blog
http://jamesdaltontrading.com/blog/


James Dalton's Ebook:
EBOOK: If u have not read them, then u wont know what the fish we talking about here.
http://www.4shared.com/document/86Lv...__Jones_E.html
http://www.4shared.com/document/ivp7...r_Markets.html


Father of MP - Peter_Steidlmayer (classics)
http://www.4shared.com/document/WA5J...-_On_Marke.htm
http://www.4shared.com/document/u9l8...ts_-_secon.htm
http://www.4shared.com/document/vm01..._Markets_.html

CBOT study guide..(Super duper handy read)
http://www.4shared.com/document/DVfM...udy_Guide_.htm

Robin Mersch Strategy
http://www.cmegroup.com/education/in...t-profile.html
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